“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.
- Qiaochu estimated 90% on 2012-10-14
- RandomThinker estimated 20% and said “Depends on what he means by “available”. Maybe theoretically available. I doubt they’d even be legal in most places.” on 2012-10-15
- Emanuel Rylke said “how will the ‘everyone’ part be judged? Does it mean consumers can buy them somewhere on the world, or you can use them almost everywhere you can use a classical car?” on 2012-10-15
- chemotaxis101 estimated 15% on 2012-10-15
- Qiaochu changed the deadline from “on 2017-09-25” and changed their prediction from ““Google's self-driving cars will be available for everyone within five years” – Sergey Brin” on 2012-10-16
- Qiaochu estimated 50% and said “Updated and edited. Is that reasonably unambiguous now? I think 5 years is a pretty long time for a new technology to be adopted. The first iPhone debuted about 5 years ago. ” on 2012-10-16
- Emanuel Rylke estimated 5% and said “unlikely that a majority of countries will legalize self-driving cars in the next five years.” on 2012-10-16
- Pablo estimated 10% on 2012-10-16
- RandomThinker estimated 10% on 2012-10-17
- PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2012-10-18
- iconreforged estimated 25% on 2012-10-18
- gwern estimated 15% and said “Qiaochu, an iphone is very different from a self-driving car. an iphone is merely another variation on the constantly changing cellphone. self-driving cars pose complexities for multiple areas of law and insurance and commercial practice” on 2012-10-21
- Qiaochu estimated 10% and said “Updating. Emanuel Rylke and gwern make good points. ” on 2012-10-21
- faws said “I suggest changing the wording to [the same market that can currently afford to buy a new median price car], otherwise the prediction is certain to be wrong since not everyone can afford a car younger than 5 years. ” on 2012-10-22
- smijer estimated 1% and said “My probability estimate goes up to 30% for fifteen years. 50% for fifteen years regardless of whether Google is the developer that takes that market. ” on 2012-10-25
- beo_shaffer estimated 15% on 2012-10-27
- alecbrooks estimated 15% on 2012-11-17
- ChristianKl estimated 15% on 2012-11-29
- Benja estimated 12% on 2013-02-10
- Tuxedage estimated 8% on 2013-02-10
- tormey estimated 20% on 2013-02-10
- Michael Dickens estimated 25% on 2014-01-01
- Michael Dickens estimated 25% on 2014-01-01
- mad estimated 5% and said “That’s in about two and a half years now, and things don’t seem to have improved. Is this prediction for the USA only? I’m estimating based on ‘first world countries’ which might account for mine being so low.” on 2015-01-06
- JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2015-01-06
- moridinamael estimated 15% on 2015-01-07
- rictic estimated 10% and said “There are too many jurisdictions in which one can legally drive today. They will not all (or a reasonable enough set of them to qualify for containing “everyone”) legalize self driving cars in the next two years.” on 2015-05-16
- PseudonymousUser estimated 50% on 2015-12-31
- Tanner estimated 10% on 2016-01-08
- themusicgod1 estimated 39% on 2016-04-14
- Andrew MacFie estimated 1% on 2016-07-09
- MultiplyByZer0 estimated 1% on 2017-08-09
- two2thehead estimated 0% on 2017-08-09
- Pablo estimated 0% on 2017-08-15
- Baeboo estimated 0% on 2017-09-18
- Tanner judged this prediction wrong on 2017-09-26.