Self-driving cars will be available for sale or lease in most US states within ten years (2022).

Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2023-01-17.

• Aticper estimated 80% on 2012-10-24
• RandomThinker estimated 20% on 2012-10-24
• Aticper said “Nevada and California have already moved to legalize the cars, and Google has a lot of lobbying power. I think it’s reasonable that they’ll get the legislation passed in 26 states in ten years. ” on 2012-10-24
• gwern said “They’ve been legalized under extremely narrow provisions which are tailored towards allowing limited experimentation by large wealthy corporations; the legislations basically do nothing to resolve the insurance and liability issues.” on 2012-10-24
• Aticper said “It’s a move of good faith. And ten years is a long time to establish relevant caselaw, especially if it happens at a federal level. ” on 2012-10-24
• Elithrion estimated 63% and said “Assuming we mean “available to at least some consumers in >50% of states and legal to drive on the roads in autonomous mode with human supervision in those states”.” on 2013-02-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2013-02-01
• mad estimated 30% on 2015-01-06
• Pablo estimated 27% on 2015-02-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 46% on 2016-10-10
• mad   judged this prediction wrong on 2023-01-17.