By April 21, 2020, World War III will have broken out.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-21; known on 2020-04-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-04-21.

• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2015-04-21
• JoshuaZ said “$25 bet with Wolf_of_Coinstreet (to be transfered in Bitcoin) http://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/33ay2j/the_pentagons_operation_jade_helm_15_the/cqjqk88” on 2015-04-21
• EloiseRosen estimated 4% on 2015-04-22
• RoryS estimated 2% on 2015-04-22
• JoshuaZ said “RoryS, I guess you are going for straight base rate over last hundred years?” on 2015-04-22
• Chri estimated 2% on 2015-04-22
• jesselevine said “Define World War III. The problem is you can’t. One could argue that any of the modern bilateral conflicts, like NATO or members of the security council, constitutes a World War” on 2015-04-22
• RoryS said “I think it’s safe to leave it unknown if it’s fuzzy, but I think there are clear cases of right & wrong. (& yes, straight base rate!)” on 2015-04-22
• aoeu estimated 2% on 2015-05-01
• timujin estimated 3% on 2015-05-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 7% and said “Updating per http://www.vox.com/2015/6/29/8845913/russia-war” on 2015-07-02
• David estimated 4% on 2015-07-03
• themusicgod1 estimated 12% on 2016-04-20
• stepan estimated 0% on 2020-02-24
• qznc estimated 1% on 2020-04-18
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2020-04-18
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-04-21.