GJP: #1074 Will Libyan government forces regain control* of the city of Bani Walid before 6 February 2012? ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern 6 days ago; known in about 5 hours.

Train on Sunday arrives on time (within 5 minutes) ( 80% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith 2 days ago; known in 1 day.

Train on Monday arrives on time (within 5 minutes) ( 80% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith 2 days ago; known in 1 day.

I will have 1000 Anki cards in my compounds deck by the time I play two week’s worth of Baldr Sky ( 80% confidence )

Created by meisnewbie 13 days ago; known in 1 day.

Part 2 of Shikamaru vs the Logical Fallacies to be ready within a month ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern 29 days ago; known in 1 day.

I will complete my paper to a standard acceptable to the conference review panel. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty 5 days ago; known in 1 day.

The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) for at least another six months. ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known in 3 days.

Miley Cyrus will fade out of the spotlight in 2 years with the cut from Hannah Montana ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-10; known in 3 days.

I will eat a slice of bread with cheese next Friday. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Emanuel Rylke 2 days ago; known in 4 days.

Trike IT will have migrated to being a python shop ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Adam on 2009-02-12; known in 5 days.

Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. ( 64% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-12; known in 6 days.

“Congress will pass an electronic privacy bill along the lines of the principles set out by the Digital Due Process Coalition.” —FfT ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-13; known in 7 days.

I will go to New York city on feb 14 and build an awsome construction ( 95% confidence )

Created by b.crouzier 19 days ago; known in 8 days.

Google Code Search or an equivalent/better successor product from Google will be publicly accessible on 2012-02-15 UTC ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-10-15; known in 8 days.

My RTC abstract will be accepted ( 66% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-11-07; known in 8 days.

Dan’s RTC abstract will be accepted ( 54% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-11-07; known in 8 days.

Both RTC abstracts will be accepted ( 35% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-11-07; known in 8 days.

I will pass the Institute of Actuaries’ entry exam. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known in 8 days.

France’s Sarkozy to run for presidency. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Morendil 13 days ago; known in 9 days.

GJP: #1077 Will Egypt officially announce by 15 February 2012 that it is lifting* its travel ban on Americans currently in Egypt? ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern 6 days ago; known in 9 days.

Stopping Bupropion won’t reduce my happiness by more than 10%. ( 80% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya 3 days ago; known in 10 days.

Singularity Institute’s new website design will go live before February 16, 2012. ( 70% confidence )

Created by lukeprog on 2011-12-19; known in 10 days.

“Reduce term of copyrights to a maximum of 56 years” petition will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav 11 days ago; known in 13 days.

Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known in 14 days.

I will get an A in my OOPD class. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Lemmih on 2011-12-22; known in 14 days.

I will get a B in my LinAlg class. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Lemmih on 2011-12-22; known in 14 days.

“Submit ACTA to the Senate” petition will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav 11 days ago; known in 14 days.

There will be one sitting of Phantasmagoria of Flower View in the next month where I will go positive against Drakeryn. (Sitting = More than 5 matches where Merlin is not picked) ( 30% confidence )

Created by meisnewbie 13 days ago; known in 16 days.

Mercenaries 4 will not have started in one month ( 95% confidence )

Created by meisnewbie 13 days ago; known in 16 days.

“New Zealand to be in recession in December 2011 quarter” -ipredict ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson_Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known in 16 days.

iPad 3 will have a quad-core CPU ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by bobpage 22 days ago; known in 19 days.

“Rescind mandate asking Catholic employers to provide contraceptives” petition to the White House will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav 4 days ago; known in 20 days.

I’ll get an A in “history of psychology” ( 50% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya 3 days ago; known in 21 days.

I will have achieved a heart rate of 165 for 15 minutes straight which is my aerobic fitness goal. ( 80% confidence )

Created by waveman 27 days ago; known in 22 days.

I will have listened to Dorothy’s memories tape and mailed her a letter with my comments and thoughts. ( 40% confidence )

Created by waveman 27 days ago; known in 22 days.

Twitter will report profits for every quarter in 2011. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known in 24 days.

I will finish the translation of the first 13 chapters of “Facing the Singularity” until the end of february. ( 81% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya 2 days ago; known in 24 days.

My Introduction to Java deck will be the most downloaded Anki deck containing the word “Java” on 03-01-2012. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson_Virissimo on 2011-11-02; known in 24 days.

GJP: #1070 Will Israel release Palestinian politician Aziz Duwaik from prison before 1 March 2012? ( 55% confidence )

Created by gwern 13 days ago; known in 24 days.

“I will place in the top 5 for the Quantified Health Prize” —Kevin ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern 13 days ago; known in 24 days.

Obama with come to my house for dinner ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by shiffy on 2011-07-19; known in 24 days.

“I predict that I or my team will win (1st place) for the Quantified Health Prize. (70%)” —Kevin ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern 12 days ago; known in 24 days.

I will move out of the small suburban city in northern California where I have lived for 14 years, before March 1, 2012 ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bobpage on 2011-07-21; known in 24 days.

Lady Gaga will launch her next tour in Omaha, NE. ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known in 24 days.

GJP: the Saudi monarchy continue to rule Saudi Arabia as of March 1, 2012 ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known in 24 days.

NGE: Sadamoto’s Eva manga, Asuka will try to go berserk and will be killed by the MPEs; 3rd Impact subsequently starts ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known in 24 days.

GJP: #1024 Will Abdoulaye Wade win re-election as President of Senegal? ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known in 24 days.

GJP: #1043 Will Lucas Papademos resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Greece before 1 March 2012? ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known in 24 days.

“At least one serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 will be someone newly elected to his or her state’s governorship in 2010.” —Nate Silver ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known in 25 days.