Upcoming Predictions
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“The concept of time as a linear dimension will be replaced by one of time as a polarity between content and context.” ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-01-01.
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Usain Bolt sets a new personal best in the 200m. ( 31% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2019-05-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using “3D printing” technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.
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yourmorals.org to last through 2025 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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Jon Snow alive at beginning of The Winds of Winter ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Leo on 2013-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
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UNSONG was created to control the spread of names (in the same way we might want to restrict anthrax or AI research) ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, the remains of several prehistoric human settlements will be discovered underwater by archaeologists. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 72% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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Number of human truck drivers in the US to fall by 50% by 2024 EOY ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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Politics, US – Kamala Harris is president or acting president at any point before 2025. ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, single-lens magnifying glasses that allow a person to view unicellular microorganisms will be available to consumers for less than US$100 (adjusted for inflation). ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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Petabyte storage devices are available in 2024 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, there will be no 28th Amendment to the Constitution of the USA ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.” ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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Real Madrid would have won the champions league at least 6 times by the year 2025 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Seyi on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025. ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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UNSONG was created to incentivize name discovery, the same way that patents work for drugs in the real world. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, at least one object larger than Mars will be discovered within 4 lightyears of our Solar System. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, water vapor will be detected in the atmosphere of at least one free-floating “rogue planet”. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.
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Usain Bolt sets a new PB in the 100m. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 100m. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, the states will have voted on at least one constitutional amendment to cede US federal power to a global government.” ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.
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parabiosis will be demonstrated to increase average human lifespan ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2025-01-01.
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Ana is misleading to Aaron about the 'marriage' name in some significant way – e.g. it maybe is not symmetric. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.” ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model.” ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, at least 25 of the 30 stocks currently in the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be dropped from the index and replaced with other companies.” ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-01-01.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2025 ( 96% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, The giant impact hypothesis will no longer be the dominant scientific hypothesis for the formation of the Moon.” ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.” ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.” ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-01-01.
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The TV show “The Walking Dead” will have at least 10 completed seasons before 2025. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Mati on 2015-03-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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SLS to be cancelled outright or to launch at least once before 2025. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.” ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2025 ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will develop some sort of a personal uniform (colour and/or style) and rarely deviate from it. ( 25% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2025-01-01.
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Ireland will legalize Marijuana between 2021 and 2024 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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Trump massive crackdown on comedians. Bill Maher imprisoned(for comedy show) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. ( 79% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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[2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme ] <= $6.1 ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
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Tom Cotton runs in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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Obama will win the election (2012), and the GOP will become a party of lesser influence until 2024, when an independent and Republican will for a short time storm the country. ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Turtleread on 2012-04-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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By January 1, 2025 at least one OECD country with a population of at least 5 million people will have more than half of all cars be self-driving. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2025-01-01.
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Magnesium infused with silicon carbide nanoparticles will be used as major structural component for cars by 2025. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26; known on 2025-01-01.