Upcoming Predictions
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cannabinoids to be demonstrated to increase lifespan in at least one model organism by 2025 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2026-01-01.
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Godel Escher Bach will be available as a free online eBook by 2025 (in the way the Feynman lectures are) ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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Sony to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2025 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2026-01-01.
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Nintendo to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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Consensus that B/Yamagata influenza completed eliminated by January 1, 2026. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-31; known on 2026-01-01.
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Yale to become a top-15 Computer Science program by 2025 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Number of web application developers to be higher in 2025 than 2015 ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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US CBO: health spending >=25% of GDP in 2025. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2026-01-01.
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Law enforcement in the USA is/has been pressuring ISPs to secretly configure router settings to spy on suspects ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-09-04; known on 2026-01-01.
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Google Search will be less popular than a product from OpenAI by 2026 ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by elecnix on 2022-12-10; known on 2026-01-01.
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Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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GDF-11 to be demonstrated to convincingly increase lifespan by 2025 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2026-01-01.
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Made-for-delivery restaurants like Sprig will account for at least 10% of restaurant purchases by 2025 (https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-future-of-food-delivery-1/answer/Adam-DAngelo) ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-01; known on 2026-01-01.
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Christopher P. McKay to do IAmA on reddit by 2025 ( 51% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2026-01-01.
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At least one of the Voyagers to outlast the James Webb Space Telescope ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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Adobe to survive to 2025 ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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More than 25% of consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2025 ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-12; known on 2026-01-01.
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By 2025, the half-life of a career will decrease to 5 years ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Amphetamines to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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weev's attempt at resurrecting Luminiferous Aether Theory is actually a ploy to get someone to send his posse quantities of fissile material ( 14% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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By January 1. 2026, proven exists a function f(x) such that 1) x log x = o(f(x)) 2) if N is an odd perfect number with k distinct prime factors, then log N > f(k). ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2026-01-02.
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Gentoo will remain my primary OS over the next decade ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2026-01-10.
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Donald and Melania Trump will divorce in the next five years. ( 44% confidence )
Created by JohnGreer on 2021-01-12; known on 2026-01-12.
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YouTube to allow searching videos by audio contained in the video by 2025 ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-27; known on 2026-01-16.
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At least one centenarian to volunteer for anti amyloid therapy by 2025 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-27; known on 2026-01-16.
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Scotland rejoins the EU as an independent nation in the next 10 years. ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2026-01-16.
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Modafinil to be more popular in US in 2025 than 2015 ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-16.
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The next president or vice president who is not a white male will either be a hispanic man or a white woman. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbluphin on 2014-02-01; known on 2026-02-01.
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OOTS: The Monster in the Darkness is an Uvuudaum. ( 33% confidence )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29; known on 2026-02-28.
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In three yeasr, gantork and I will be in agreement that robotics have not yet had the sort of fast progression they envisioned. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-03-15; known on 2026-03-15.
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Alexei Navalny (Alexei Anatolievich Navalny) (born 4 June 1976) dies within five (5) years ( 67% confidence; 21 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2021-04-13; known on 2026-04-13.
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In 10 years, most computers and keyboards will exclude the “PAUSE” key ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-26; known on 2026-04-26.
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Harry Halpin on the payroll of, or otherwise compromised by the NSA/FVEY ( 53% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-12; known on 2026-04-29.
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CIWF USA will persuade at least one major poultry company to adopt a meaningful broiler chicken welfare policy ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-05-01.
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CIWF USA will play a major role in securing five or more new corporate cage-free pledges ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-05-01.
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“We are confident that over 60 million patients will have their genome sequenced in a healthcare context by 2025” ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2026-05-01.
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increasingly strict regulations on hrt, surgery, for adults. in particular, rules that impact clinics' ability to provide drugs and surgeries in the next 4 years. ( 76% confidence )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2026-05-08.
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3eba1fee3af900bb58ce7e70d8962193b9775e8293cb5a29d91bd73ee814796e - ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-21; known on 2026-05-08.
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Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2026-05-08.
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In the wake of more internet censorship, an auction site that runs on tokens you can only buy with cryptocurrency will open, and become popular enough that even I learn about it. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kallman on 2021-05-17; known on 2026-05-15.
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I in 3 years ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-07-01; known on 2026-05-22.
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By mid-2026, Iraq will have a lower 'Political Rights and Civic Voice' rating from Freedom House than it does now. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-29; known on 2026-06-01.
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Frcr 2026 ( 60% confidence )
Created by kandeel on 2023-06-16; known on 2026-06-16.
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Matt Gaetz (Matthew Louis Gaetz II) (born 7 May 1982) gets arrested within five (5) years ( 99% confidence )
Created by two2thehead on 2021-06-18; known on 2026-06-18.
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Personal – In 5 years I will go back to school for a grad program ( 50% confidence )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2026-06-28.
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The first “worldwide classroom” will be setup on the Internet and will revolutionize learning potentials by double the rate of college bound graduates by 2026. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-06-30.
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Treasury to instruct the Fed to revalue U.S. gold deposits at $8,000/oz or more before 3Q26 ( 35% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-10-23; known on 2026-07-01.
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By this time in 2026, there will be a consensus among neuroscientists (>50%) that quantum mechanics plays a non-trivial role in understanding consciousness. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-18; known on 2026-07-18.