Neumann Space will be partially successful (I'll make back the money I put in) ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known 3 days ago; judged right by taryneast 1 day ago.

Ubuntu upgrade on Hedy the Laptop will be successful (boot to at least usable gui/network/emacs) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 3 days ago; known 1 day ago; judged right by themusicgod1 3 days ago.

Tomorrow morning I will weigh more than I did this morning. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens 3 days ago; known 2 days ago; judged right by Michael Dickens 3 days ago.

I will be banned from diasporg ( 63% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 8 days ago; known on 2017-10-10; judged right by themusicgod1 6 days ago.

I will get 8 catches of six balls this year ( 43% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2016-08-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge 8 days ago.

There will be at least five polls between the DNC and 2017 where Clinton beats Trump by at least ten points. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-08-06; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by two2thehead 9 days ago.

D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=1024-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2020 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 9 days ago.

A major tech startup (valuation > 10 million dollars) will be launched out of a country or by native citizens of a country ranked in the lowest 100 of GDP per capita according to the CIA factbook. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2032-09-26; judged right by themusicgod1 9 days ago.

There'll be press report of “martial law” imposed on the internet by a major country in the next 10 years ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2022-10-01; judged right by themusicgod1 9 days ago.

In tonight's debate, Trump will refer to either Bill Clinton's alleged rape of Juanita Broaddrick or Hillary Clinton's defense of Thomas Alfred Taylor (or both) ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bobpage 9 days ago; known 9 days ago; judged right by bobpage 9 days ago.

Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2020 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 9 days ago.

Before January 1, 2030, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore's algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2030-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 10 days ago.

Before January 1, 2045, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore's algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2045-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 10 days ago.

What is today known as the 2016 DNC leak will be generally agreed upon to have been hacked by a Russian Government operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation. ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 21 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-31; known on 2066-07-30; judged right by two2thehead 11 days ago.

The seminar on Friday will go ahead. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by splorridge 15 days ago; known 12 days ago; judged right by splorridge 12 days ago.

I will try some kind of VR HMD before 2017 ( 98% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by bobpage on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by bobpage 12 days ago.

Jared Loughner will be convicted (or plead guilty) to at least one charge related to the 2011 Tuscon shooting. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-01-12; known on 2026-01-12; judged right by themusicgod1 12 days ago.

“Everything goes very multi-core, even your cell phone.” by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 12 days ago.

Home sous-vide cookers <$200. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 12 days ago.

One year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of a financial institution that has over $10 billion in assets. ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 12 days ago.

Playstation 4/successor PS3 released by 2017 ( 30% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by bobpage 12 days ago.

SR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in neither Romania nor Latvia nor Sweden ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known 14 days ago; judged right by gwern 13 days ago.

The owner of emmayouarenext.com will release nude photos of Emma Watson when the countdown expires. ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Taymon on 2014-09-23; known on 2014-09-24; judged right by Taymon on 2014-09-24.

A will weigh more than me tomorrow ( 70% confidence )

Created by splorridge 15 days ago; known 14 days ago; judged right by splorridge 13 days ago.

A's BMI based on tomorrow's measurements will be greater than mine ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by splorridge 15 days ago; known 14 days ago; judged right by splorridge 13 days ago.

J will come into work tomorrow ( 92% confidence )

Created by splorridge 15 days ago; known 14 days ago; judged right by splorridge 13 days ago.

I will come into work tomorrow ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by splorridge 15 days ago; known 14 days ago; judged right by splorridge 13 days ago.

I will still be employed at my current job one year after my start date. ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28; known 14 days ago; judged right by PlacidPlatypus 14 days ago.

I will weigh more tomorrow than I did today ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by splorridge 15 days ago; known 14 days ago; judged right by splorridge 14 days ago.

I'll be free to meet with Andrew between 5 and 9 tomorrow. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Capla 16 days ago; known 15 days ago; judged right by Capla 14 days ago.

I will get 7 catches of seven balls this year ( 26% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by splorridge on 2016-08-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge 15 days ago.

On Monday I will successfully bench 187.5 pounds for 3 sets of 3 reps. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens 17 days ago; known 14 days ago; judged right by Michael Dickens 15 days ago.

New Ghostbusters movie will make a profit ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-22; known on 2018-07-18; judged right by splorridge 16 days ago.

Conditional on a Labour leadership election being called and conditional on Jeremy Corbyn being on the ballot, Corbyn will win ( 79% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by splorridge 16 days ago.

[UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-15; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus 16 days ago.

[UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop and she wants the body of Sarah Michelle Gellar ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-15; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus 16 days ago.

There will be no more juvenile seagulls around the garden by end of September ( 50% confidence )

Created by blackRust on 2016-07-24; known 19 days ago; judged right by blackRust 17 days ago.

The Balseraphs will not succeed in landing a single unit on the Amurite home continent. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-07-03; judged right by Temeraire 18 days ago.

The Anthropocene Working Group decides Anthropocene is a true geologic epoch ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-01; known 18 days ago; judged right by themusicgod1 18 days ago.

FBI investigation will find no criminal activity on Hillary Clinton's part. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-30; known 18 days ago; judged right by kuudes on 2015-10-05.

Mo-Pac express lanes will not be open and accepting traffic before September 20th, 2016 ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-08-29; known 29 days ago; judged right by unexpectedEOF 23 days ago.

I go to Lalibela this summer ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ioannes on 2016-06-30; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by ioannes 24 days ago.

I bet after 6 months of travelling, I will say I do not regret getting my new backpack, Kelty RedWing ( 80% confidence )

Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-10; known on 2016-09-10; judged right by Idrinkitup 29 days ago.

The LDS Church will not withdraw from the BSA. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Makhura47 on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-12-15; judged right by Makhura47 30 days ago.

Google's refugee donation matching to hit ~$5m limit within the year ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-17; known on 2016-09-17; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-17.

I will get A*A*A* at A2 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.

I will get 1, 2 in STEP ( 30% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.

I will get into Cambridge ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.

The 2016 Iowa GOP Caucus result does not get overturned/revised such that Trump takes first place. ( 92% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ioannes on 2016-02-05; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-16.

The airport in Medellin will take my passport card ( 60% confidence )

Created by Idrinkitup on 2016-09-06; known on 2016-09-09; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2016-09-09.