“Ron Paul to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012” -Intrade ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson_Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known about 11 hours ago.

I will have spent 10 hours emailing press outlets regarding TextMotivate.com by February 5, 2012. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Julian Pulgarin 6 days ago; known about 19 hours ago.

I will have open sourced Khan Academy’s gradual roll-out tool by February 5, 2012. ( 42% confidence )

Created by Julian Pulgarin 6 days ago; known about 19 hours ago.

Vi tager på staden før vi går iseng ( 25% confidence )

Created by OptiMind 1 day ago; known 1 day ago.

I got a 90 or higher on my calc quiz today. ( 90% confidence )

Created by ahartell 19 days ago; known 1 day ago.

I got an 80 or higher on my calc quiz. ( 100% confidence )

Created by ahartell 19 days ago; known 1 day ago.

‘I think Apple’s Macintosh Pro line of computers is dead.’ —Robert X Cringely ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known 4 days ago.

A nexus phone will be produced by Motorola, with vanilla ice cream sandwich before February 2012 ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by noh8plz on 2011-08-24; known 4 days ago.

I will earn 300 dollars worth of bitcoin by the end of the month. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by kiba 27 days ago; known 4 days ago.

I will abstain from sexual activity (porn, masturbation, orgasm) until January 31st, 2012. ( 45% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20; known 5 days ago.

My guinea pig will learn to move in a circle on command in 2 months time. ( 38% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known 6 days ago.

Jeff will defriend me on Facebook sometime in the next three days. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 16 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ 11 days ago; known 7 days ago.

r.org will reach >1,000,000 pageviews per month at least once before the end of 2011 ( 65% confidence )

Created by Frank on 2011-01-02; known 26 days ago.

‘Apple’s Mac App Store does $1B in gross sales in first year’ —Brian Breslin ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known 28 days ago.

I will be able to complete 100 good-form push ups in 6 weeks’ time following the program at hundredpushups.com. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-04.

Kando Dental Supplies (http://kandodental.com.au/) will have free shipping in March. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by scott.arbeitman on 2011-12-06; known on 2012-01-03.

‘the United States has a historically hot summer 2011.’ —orthonormal ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01.

The price of U.S. housing will fall in real terms. —Costanza ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01.

Australia will not have car factories by the end of the current recession. —Clive Matthew-Wilson ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2012-01-01.

“Holden will be the first car-maker to close its Australian factories during the current recession.” —Clive Matthew-Wilson ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2012-01-01.

I will find a sci-fi author that I like as much as Iain M. Banks before 2012. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2012-01-01.

‘Continuing riots in major European cities over the imposition of austerity measures: 80%.’ —Skatche ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01.

‘Newspapers in Australia will be found to be boosting subscription numbers by a significant amount to swindle advertisers, again. (40%)’ —luminosity ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01.

“NZ Government to announce before 2012 it will waive visitor visa requirement for India passport holders” -ipredict ( 2% confidence )

Created by Jayson_Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2012-01-01.

‘Makerbot will sell more than 10,000 3D printers in 2011.’ —Joris Peels ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01.

‘A designer will have revenues of over one million US dollars with a single 3D printed product in 2011.’ —Joris Peels ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01.

‘Both Stratasys and Objet will release $5000 desktop 3D printers at Euromold 2011.’ —Joris Peels ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01.

‘3D Systems will launch a 3D printing service for consumers in 2011.’ —Joris Peels ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01.

‘3D printed products will win at least two Red Dot Design Awards in 2011’ —Joris Peels ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01.

“Copyright and patent issues will continue to be stalemated in Congress, with no major legislation on either subject.” —FfT ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-13; known on 2012-01-01.

’The seemingly N^2 patent lawsuits among all the major smartphone players will be resolved through a grand cross-licensing bargain, cut in a dark, smoky room, whose terms will only be revealed through some congratulatory emails that leak to the press. Non ( 30% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01.

‘However, Android’s gains will mostly be at the low end of the market; the iPhone will continue to outsell any single Android smartphone model by a wide margin.’ —FtT ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01.

’The market for Internet set-top boxes like Google TV and Apple TV will continue to be chaotic throughout 2011, with no single device taking a decisive market share lead. The big winners will be online services like Netflix, Hulu, and Pandora that work wi ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01.

‘Multiple Wikileaks alternatives will pop up, and pundits will start to realize that mass leaks are enabled by technology trends, not just by one freaky Australian dude.’ —FtT ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01.

‘The RIAA and/or MPAA will be sued over their role in the government’s actions to reassign DNS names owned by allegedly unlawful web sites. Even if the lawsuit manages to get all the way to trial, there won’t be a significant ruling against them.’ —FtT ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01.

’The FCC’s recently-announced network neutrality rules will continue to attract criticism from both ends of the political spectrum, and will be the subject of critical hearings in the Republican House, but neither Congress nor the courts will overturn the ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01.

I will still be using prediction book by January 2012 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by roshni on 2011-11-18; known on 2012-01-01.

There will be at least one more major issue with facebook releasing user data in the next year ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2012-01-01.

“By 2012 scientists will not have developed an explanation for how images on the Shroud of Turin came to be on the cloth -an explanation that satisfies all of the physical and chemical properties of the images and does not violate basic laws of physics.” ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2012-01-01.

‘China will have more tech IPOs than the U.S.’ in 2011 —Chris O’Brien ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01.

‘Silicon Valley jobs will remain flat’ in 2011 —Chris O’Brien ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01.

Carriers ‘will institute charges based on usage’ in 2011 —Chris O’Brien ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01.

‘Groupon goes on a buying binge & hits $3B in gross sales.’ in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01.

“From 2008 to 2011, sales of professional and personal service robots more than double – from 5.5 million to over 11.5 million.” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2012-01-01.