Unjudged Predictions
-
I do at least 50 hours of pomos over the next week. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner 7 days ago; known about 12 hours ago.
-
In 2 years I will conclude that bombing IS was net negative. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-25; known 20 days ago.
-
I will pass comps. ( 85% confidence )
Created by spicedpiano on 2015-08-10; known 25 days ago.
-
I will get a first in at least three-quarters of my modules ( 35% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2016-05-15; known 25 days ago.
-
I'll get into an American University next year. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Hurzek on 2015-04-18; known 29 days ago.
-
Promised food at the Latrice Royale opening event Fall '16 by SJE in Trayes Hall will not appear until one hour after doors open (8pm EST) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mmelewinsky on 2016-09-12; known on 2016-09-13.
-
Somewhere in Air France IT, there will be a project or a study using Golang within 6 month after the Brown Bag Lunch of March 2016 by Anaethelion ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jean on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-08-27.
-
In which university will you do your bachelor's? Harvard, MIT, or UPenn ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Hussain on 2015-08-02; known on 2016-08-16.
-
I will acquire enough python knowledge to contribute to a GitHub project. ( 10% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-08-16.
-
In the next five years, two classes in the Complexity Zoo as of 10 August 2011, will either be shown to be equal or shown to be unequal. ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-10; known on 2016-08-10.
-
Higher tuition in 2015 causes stress in students in canada ( 99% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-08-01.
-
(&) will become idiomatic in widespread Haskell code, from the beginner level within two years ( 99% confidence )
Created by jle on 2014-07-26; known on 2016-07-26.
-
Conditional on none of Cruz, Walker or Paul becoming the Republican nominee, Psimoe will still end up saying they will vote for the nominee. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-07-25.
-
Conditional on neither Cruz nor Paul winning the Republican nomination, The2ndAmendment will when asked say they are supporting the Republican nominee for President. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-24; known on 2016-07-22.
-
Acting will be correlated with my spouse's perception of a positive relationship. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-07-16.
-
I will get into one of Harvard, MIT, or Princeton ( 15% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-14.
-
In the beginning of 2016, it will be more difficult for a university to not provide civil servants/qualified workers than the beginning of 2015 in canada. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-07-01.
-
I will submit my capstone project for accounting on the fourth Monday of June, 2016 ( 78% confidence )
Created by helldalgo on 2016-05-23; known on 2016-06-30.
-
Engaged MonJune27 – 45% opens, 2% clicks ( 70% confidence )
Created by polyopticon on 2016-06-26; known on 2016-06-28.
-
A close friend or relative will commit suicide within the next 2 years ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-27; known on 2016-06-27.
-
M:BG will have a playable alpha. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-19; known on 2016-06-16.
-
Next MacBook Pro release excludes 3.5mm headphone jack or becomes incorporated in a different IO port. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2016-06-16.
-
If I'm still alive, I (xrisque) will still be single. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by xrisque on 2014-11-11; known on 2016-06-16.
-
I will retire at the end of June. ( 90% confidence )
Created by bhh322 on 2015-11-28; known on 2016-06-15.
-
80,000 Hours' blog will have a hackernews comment with >10% of the post's net upvotes that is critical of the volume of popups on the 80,000 Hours site. ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RyanCarey on 2016-06-07; known on 2016-06-09; judged unknown by RyanCarey on 2016-06-09.
-
Skype translator will be a huge success ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by influnza on 2014-06-07; known on 2016-06-07.
-
I will sleep with the P-girl this year ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-11-17; known on 2016-06-06.
-
The “Bible of Shenanigans” will NOT be created by Justen Zhang and/or Kuba Stechly in a form that contains at least 50 high quality shenanigans by June 1 2016 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2016-06-02.
-
I will have a super awesome computer before the release of Black Desert (in Europe). ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Moobile on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-06-01.
-
I will get the GROW ( 85% confidence )
Created by spicedpiano on 2016-04-20; known on 2016-06-01.
-
Once I quit my job, move to Spain, begin learning programming, my Penn State Authentic happiness score will be above 3.7. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-01; known on 2016-06-01.
-
The average winning bid for the 2016 NYC Individual Accessible taxi medallion auction will be below $700,000. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-08-13; known on 2016-05-16.
-
I will acquire enough javascript knowledge to contribute to a GitHub project. ( 35% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-04-30.
-
I will complete Anki reviews every week until April. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-04-16.
-
I will use predictionbook at least once a week. ( 32% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-04-16.
-
I will learn enough perspective to improve my drawing. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-04-16.
-
I will purchase an Oculus Rift by March 30, 2016 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-04-01.
-
My dry eyes will be noticeably better in 6 months from my last appointment with Dr. Hennie where he told me to take the triglyceride form of fish oil. ( 70% confidence )
Created by bhh322 on 2015-11-28; known on 2016-04-01.
-
Children born with symptoms enough to be diagnosed as ADHD will rise as result of a rise in its treatment with stimulant medications. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-15; known on 2016-03-27.
-
https://encipher.it?DI8w thyroglossal duct cyst ( 90% confidence )
Created by eldorz on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-03-23.
-
Created by eldorz on 2016-03-01; known on 2016-03-15.
-
9502008321: Multifocal GBM ( 90% confidence )
Created by Dylan.Kurda on 2016-02-03; known on 2016-02-22.
-
9771039943: ABC ( 80% confidence )
Created by Dylan.Kurda on 2016-02-03; known on 2016-02-22.
-
U6* unemployment will be under 10% by this time next year. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2016-02-10.
-
I will be accepted for an interview at that type foundry, after having written, just for my application, a font previewing app with the tools they use. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2016-01-09; known on 2016-01-30.
-
Will finish Managerial Accounting tasks within guessed amount of time (6 pomos) ( 80% confidence )
Created by Helldalgo42 on 2016-01-25; known on 2016-01-26.
-
Path cc ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Gstarr310 on 2016-01-21; known on 2016-01-21.
-
I will get an 1800+ upon retaking the SAT. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-01-16.
-
My subjectively objective risk for one or more cancer types will triple as a result of analyzing my WGS results over the next 4 months. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-16.
-
If I discover a convenient way to test it, my polygenic risk score for schizophrenia will be above the population average (based on rare variant enrichment). ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
-
My top shared 5 F2 variants from the 1000 genome data will all be from people from Northern European countries. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
-
I will get further medical testing (confirmatory genetic testing, or lab results) as a result of my WGS results. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
-
I will spend >30 hours of non-class time analyzing my personal WGS data over the next four months. ( 33% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
-
I will regret having my whole genome sequenced in 4 months (self-report). ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
-
My WGS results will inspire me to develop a new habit in the next 4 months, either via a new SR habit flashcard or a new lifestats column. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
-
There will be a greater than 97.5% concordance btwn my WGS data and 23&me SNP calls. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
-
More than 13% of the loss of function genes in my WGS data will be related to chemosensation. ( 66% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
-
I will have >100 loss of function variants in my WGS data. (https://www.sciencemag.org/content/335/6070/823) ( 55% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
-
I will enjoy the new Star Wars movie as much as the original. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bhh322 on 2015-11-28; known on 2016-01-06.
-
Gathering/absorbing Hawking radiation and generating a net surplus of useful energy (not counting what you feed into the black hole) would violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-08-18; known on 2016-01-01.
-
HPMoR: Harry Potter has asked the Weasleys for a computer. ( 15% confidence )
Created by Mathieu_Roy on 2014-02-14; known on 2016-01-01.
-
The Chivalry: Medieval Warfare 'competitive' community will lose >50% of its current membership by 2016 ( 12% confidence )
Created by earfluffy on 2015-05-12; known on 2016-01-01.
-
OoTS: MitD is the Snarl. ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-06-30; known on 2016-01-01.
-
HP MoR: Ravenclaw and Slytherin will both win the House Cup, because Hogwarts rules are unclear whether house points earned by students that have left Hogwarts should be counted. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2012-04-18; known on 2016-01-01.
-
HP MoR: Ravenclaw and Slytherin will both win the House Cup, because people will be uncertain whether Harry's points ought go to Slytherin or Ravenclaw. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2012-04-18; known on 2016-01-01.
-
HP MoR: the original Quirrel killed his parents ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01.
-
HP MoR: Dementors simply kill like anything else, death is death (cf. Death Note) ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01.
-
HP MoR: ch45: The hint is about what happened to the phoenix Fawkes ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01.
-
HP MoR: ch45: The hint is about why the Dementors are out to get Quirrel ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01.
-
HP MoR: ch45: The hint is about why Harry can't hear Dementors ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01.
-
Police scanner audio will be routinely encrypted in Boston by 2016 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-20; known on 2016-01-01.
-
General consensus that North Korea is behind the Sony hack attack by January 1, 2016 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-20; known on 2016-01-01.
-
Hendo Hoverboards indeed delivers working hoverboards by the end of the year 2015. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by orthonormal on 2014-11-01; known on 2016-01-01.
-
“Little sister” will go on a mission before 2016. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2016-01-01.
-
A's bike will get stolen or lost in 2015. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by adri on 2015-01-07; known on 2016-01-01.
-
A will go skiing in 2015. ( 30% confidence )
Created by adri on 2015-01-07; known on 2016-01-01.
-
UA would not join russian custom union in next two years ( 70% confidence )
Created by vasaka on 2014-01-20; known on 2016-01-01.
-
I think that I will be working at the VA by the end of next month ( 60% confidence )
Created by DarthSophius on 2015-11-04; known on 2016-01-01.
-
Torn Banner Studios will announce their Unreal Engine 4 project before 2016 ( 40% confidence )
Created by earfluffy on 2015-05-19; known on 2016-01-01.
-
C will get together with L by next new year. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-20; known on 2016-01-01.
-
There will be a major blizzard in Denver in either October or November 2015 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-09-28; known on 2016-01-01.
-
Benjamin Netanyahu's proposed legislation to implement mandatory minimum sentences for stone throwers will still be there two months after the Knife Intifada has ceased. ( 60% confidence )
Created by mojo.rhythm on 2015-10-23; known on 2016-01-01.
-
Univision will survive as a free over the air station until 2016 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-10; known on 2016-01-01.
-
Before or coinciding with the release of the Apple Watch, Apple will [announce or release an new iPod touch model (however minor the differences)] or [announce the end of the iPod touch line or brand]. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2015-02-16; known on 2016-01-01.
-
At least one Dutch citizen will be penalized for downloading/spreading copyrighted material using a P2P system on a device located in the Netherlands before the end of 2015. A case started before 2016, but finished in the year 2016 counts as well. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by akrasib on 2015-10-22; known on 2016-01-01.
-
No recession will occur in the United States for the next 4 years. ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-01; known on 2015-12-31.
-
I will quit my day job this year. ( 55% confidence )
Created by MattG on 2015-01-30; known on 2015-12-31.
-
I will have reached over a million dollars by year end. ( 65% confidence )
Created by aschberg on 2015-06-30; known on 2015-12-31.
-
“The International Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report will conclude it is likely, or more than likely, that human-caused global warming has increased hurricane intensity in the 1995-2005 time period.” ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2015-12-31.
-
Gift from S is a fiction book. ( 24% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2015-12-28.
-
Gift from S is a non-fiction book. ( 12% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2015-12-28.
-
Gift from S is a sharp implement. ( 25% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2015-12-28.
-
Gift from N is a kitchen appliance. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2015-12-28.
-
I think I will get all As on my courses this semester ( 90% confidence )
Created by Majikkani_Hand on 2015-11-14; known on 2015-12-20.
-
I think I will get all As or A-s on my courses this semester. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Majikkani_Hand on 2015-11-14; known on 2015-12-20.
-
Justen Zhang will change major at least once by December 2015 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-12-16.
-
Score at least 150 on a PLSAT ( 90% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-12-16.
-
I think I will get an A in geosci ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bruh on 2015-11-09; known on 2015-12-16.
-
I will participate in and finish NaNoWriMo 2015 ( 10% confidence )
Created by dvolk on 2014-11-09; known on 2015-12-01.
-
Vamos ter uma v0 do dash até começo de dezembro ( 60% confidence )
Created by juliomarcos on 2015-08-05; known on 2015-12-01.
