Statistics
| Predicted Certainty | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Certainty | 33% | 67% | 75% | 60% | 100% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 23 |
Predictions by Arenamontanus
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Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Rain 10 months ago; known in over 89 years.
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Inflation in US will be higher that 7% by 2012 ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by borisbrev 10 months ago; known in over 2 years.
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Prediction Book will not have eliminated its performance problems by Nov. 1, 2009. Many page requests will still take more than 4 seconds to load. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by anonym 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged right by anonym 10 months ago.
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Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jennifer 10 months ago; known in over 14 years.
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The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by freyley 10 months ago; known in over 16 years; judged unknown by freyley 10 months ago.
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There will be an earthquake in California that results in at least 1000 human deaths before 2012. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in about 1 year.
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In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ChristianKl 10 months ago; known in over 50 years.
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In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 37% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ChristianKl 10 months ago; known in over 60 years.
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Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TheScholar 10 months ago; known in over 19 years; judged unknown by Jack 9 months ago.
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This website’s statistics will show that people pick percentages with a ‘2’ in them anomalously often- presumably due to priming from the ‘my 2 cents’ ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Larks 10 months ago; known 7 months ago; judged wrong by Larks 7 months ago.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 83% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by komponisto 10 months ago; known in over 9 years; judged unknown by Jack 9 months ago.
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Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TheScholar 10 months ago; known in over 999 years.
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Before Dec. 1, 2009, PB will change the UI to make it clearer that users should click “My 2 Cents” when entering a probability, regardless of whether they want to add a comment, and that they should not click the “Right” or “Wrong” judgment button. ( 89% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by anonym 10 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged right by anonym 10 months ago.
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Twitter.com is currently ranked 13 on Alexa. On October 31 at 7pm PST it will be ranked 13 or higher. (I’ve done nothing to investigate how rankings have been changing or how often.) ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ektimo 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by ektimo 10 months ago.
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There will be more than 1000 PB predictions before Fri. Oct. 23, 2009. There are ~ 650 @ 6PM PDT, Sun. Oct. 18. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by anonym 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by freyley 10 months ago.
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Some group in Pakistan has already developed a super-intelligence (as of 2009). ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by mjgeddes 10 months ago; known in over 4 years; judged unknown by freyley 10 months ago.
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Roman Polanski will be extradited to the United States before the end of next year. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known in 3 months; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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Osama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged right by gwern about 1 month ago.
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There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jack 11 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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Labour party will not win next UK General Election ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by gwern about 1 month ago.
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Dow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 8000 at end of 2009 ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by Matt 7 months ago.
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Dow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 6000 ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by Matt 7 months ago.
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Dow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 6500 ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by Matt 7 months ago.
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US Unemployment Rate in Dec 2009 will be greater than 10.00% ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged wrong by Matt 7 months ago.
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There will be a flood event that kills more than 200 people between 14 October and 14 November 2009. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus 10 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged wrong by Arenamontanus 9 months ago.
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There will be a storm/hurricane event killing more than 5000 people before 14 October 2010. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Arenamontanus 10 months ago; known in about 1 month; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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There will be a transport (train, air, boat etc) accident killing more than 1000 people before 14 october 2010. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Arenamontanus 10 months ago; known in about 1 month.
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Q4 stocks will falter and the markets will pull back. Gold and silver will move up greatly in proportion to how much the market indexes fall. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by CRNewsReports© about 1 year ago; known 8 months ago; judged wrong by gwern about 1 month ago.
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Extremist confusionists will not be able to prevent LHC collisions – even given they now have until our Autumn next year ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn about 1 year ago; known 10 months ago; judged right by gwern about 1 month ago.
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Apophis will not hit earth ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Gerrit over 2 years ago; known in over 18 years; judged right by gwern about 1 month ago.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 100% confidence; 25 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb 10 months ago; known in about 1 month; judged unknown by Morendil 10 months ago.
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Google will buy Twitter by 2010 ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Glenn over 2 years ago; known 8 months ago; judged wrong by thephilosiraptor 8 months ago.
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The recession will end this year ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts about 1 year ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by gwern about 1 month ago.
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The world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams ( 100% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Glenn over 2 years ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by rwallace 8 months ago.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 21 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max 11 months ago; known in 3 months; judged unknown by gwern 11 days ago.
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The sun will not become a nova during this year. ( 100% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bogdanb 10 months ago; known in about 1 month; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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Generic molecular assemblers won’t be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don’t come from bulk chemistry. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by bogdanb 10 months ago; known in over 19 years.
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Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jonii 11 months ago; known in over 6 years; judged unknown by jasticE 10 months ago.
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Neither Eliezer nor Robin will have more than 10 public predictions recorded before Monday ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt 11 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged right by Matt 10 months ago.
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FOX will not pick up the show “Dollhouse” for a third season. ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jack 10 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged right by Jack 10 months ago.
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There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving more than 100 million personal records before the end of 2012. ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Arenamontanus 10 months ago; known in over 2 years; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving one billion personal records before 2019. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Arenamontanus 10 months ago; known in over 9 years.
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The first exaflop performance supercomputer will be online before July 2019. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Arenamontanus 10 months ago; known in over 8 years.