Predictions by Arenamontanus

• Marijuana will not be decriminalised in Latvia at least until the end of year 2012. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-12; known on 2012-12-31.

• As of 2012-12-21, the OPERA neutrino anomaly at CERN will not have been reproduced by anyone, anywhere. ( 88% confidence; 14 wagers; 15 comments )

  Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-18.

• Average global temperature will be higher for 2012 than 2011. ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-01-01.

• Average global temperature will be higher for 2011 than 2010. ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.

• There will be at least one major outbreak of violence during the Occupy Wall Street protest. ( 45% confidence; 12 wagers; 15 comments )

  Created by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-11; judged wrong by Noetic Jun on 2011-11-11.

• By 2034 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2034-01-01.

• Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 ( 35% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2025-01-01.

• Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01.

• Inflation in US will be higher that 7% by 2012 ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by borisbrev on 2009-11-04; known on 2012-12-16.

• Prediction Book will not have eliminated its performance problems by Nov. 1, 2009. Many page requests will still take more than 4 seconds to load. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-11-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-11-01.

• Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jennifer on 2009-10-19; known on 2025-01-12.

• The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2026-10-20; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• There will be an earthquake in California that results in at least 1000 human deaths before 2012. ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. ( 43% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2060-12-31.

• In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 25% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2070-12-31.

• Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 14% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.

• This website’s statistics will show that people pick percentages with a ‘2’ in them anomalously often- presumably due to priming from the ‘my 2 cents’ ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Larks on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-16; judged wrong by Larks on 2010-01-16.

• No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 86% confidence; 14 wagers )

  Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.

• Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 3009-10-17.

• Before Dec. 1, 2009, PB will change the UI to make it clearer that users should click “My 2 Cents” when entering a probability, regardless of whether they want to add a comment, and that they should not click the “Right” or “Wrong” judgment button. ( 89% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-12-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-21.

• Twitter.com is currently ranked 13 on Alexa. On October 31 at 7pm PST it will be ranked 13 or higher. (I’ve done nothing to investigate how rankings have been changing or how often.) ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by ektimo on 2009-10-18; known on 2009-10-31; judged wrong by ektimo on 2009-11-03.

• There will be more than 1000 PB predictions before Fri. Oct. 23, 2009. There are ~ 650 @ 6PM PDT, Sun. Oct. 18. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-24; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-10-23.

• Some group in Pakistan has already developed a super-intelligence (as of 2009). ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• Roman Polanski will be extradited to the United States before the end of next year. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.

• Osama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 37% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.

• Labour party will not win next UK General Election ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• Dow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 8000 at end of 2009 ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-25.

• Dow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 6000 ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-25.

• Dow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 6500 ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-25.

• US Unemployment Rate in Dec 2009 will be greater than 10.00% ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-25.

• There will be a flood event that kills more than 200 people between 14 October and 14 November 2009. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-11-14; judged wrong by Arenamontanus on 2009-11-17.

• There will be a storm/hurricane event killing more than 5000 people before 14 October 2010. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-14.

• There will be a transport (train, air, boat etc) accident killing more than 1000 people before 14 october 2010. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-14.

• Q4 stocks will falter and the markets will pull back. Gold and silver will move up greatly in proportion to how much the market indexes fall. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by CRNewsReports© on 2009-06-17; known on 2009-12-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• Extremist confusionists will not be able to prevent LHC collisions – even given they now have until our Autumn next year ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-24; known on 2009-11-09; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• Apophis will not hit earth ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Gerrit on 2008-08-25; known on 2029-05-16; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 100% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.

• Google will buy Twitter by 2010 ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by thephilosiraptor on 2010-01-01.

• The recession will end this year ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• The world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams ( 100% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2009-12-28; judged right by rwallace on 2009-12-28.

• The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 31% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )

  Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.

• The sun will not become a nova during this year. ( 100% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-14.

• Generic molecular assemblers won’t be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don’t come from bulk chemistry. ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2029-10-14.

• Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Jonii on 2009-10-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged unknown by jasticE on 2009-10-17.

• Neither Eliezer nor Robin will have more than 10 public predictions recorded before Monday ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-18; judged right by Matt on 2009-10-18.

• FOX will not pick up the show “Dollhouse” for a third season. ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-11-15; judged right by Jack on 2009-11-12.

• There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving more than 100 million personal records before the end of 2012. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving one billion personal records before 2019. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-12-31.

• The first exaflop performance supercomputer will be online before July 2019. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-07-01.