Predictions by Chance

• Before Dec. 1, 2009, PB will change the UI to make it clearer that users should click “My 2 Cents” when entering a probability, regardless of whether they want to add a comment, and that they should not click the “Right” or “Wrong” judgment button. ( 89% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-12-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-21.

• The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 31% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )

  Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.

• There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 7% confidence; 30 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged unknown by ledflyd on 2009-11-16.

• General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 100% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.

• Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Jonii on 2009-10-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged unknown by jasticE on 2009-10-17.