Predictions by ChristianKl

• Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 16% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-12-08; known on 2019-12-08.

• There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2011-11-02.

• In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 25% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2070-12-31.

• In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. ( 43% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2060-12-31.

• There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 7% confidence; 30 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged unknown by ledflyd on 2009-11-16.

• Osama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• One year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of a financial institution that has over $10 billion in assets. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-16; known on 2018-01-01.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• The world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams ( 100% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2009-12-28; judged right by rwallace on 2009-12-28.

• There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US. ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 37% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.

• Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• Neither USA nor Israel will execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before 30 Jun 2010 ( 80% confidence; 9 wagers )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-06-30; judged right by rwallace on 2010-06-30.

• Generic molecular assemblers won’t be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don’t come from bulk chemistry. ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2029-10-14.

• A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• PredictionBook will implement tagging for predictions in the next two months. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-12-15; judged wrong by Jack on 2009-12-28.

• The Pirate Party will enter the Parliament of Berlin (Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus) in the 2011 election. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by faws on 2011-09-23.

• Germany will be governed by a CDU + FDP coalition during april, may, and june of 2010. ( 90% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Drahflow on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by JFE on 2010-07-02.