Predictions by Grognor

• Sister Y still alive in 2013. ( 94% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01.

• I will die by non-suicide means by the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Grognor 10 days ago; known on 2012-12-31.

• Manly Brawl on a Big Tree will not get blammed from the Newgrounds portal ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Grognor 28 days ago; known 27 days ago; judged right by Grognor 27 days ago.

• papermachine will buy Grognor a monocle on or by December 7, 2012 ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-04-18; known on 2012-12-08.

• HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains an ordinary rock ( 26% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains James Potter ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy killed herself accidentally eg. by Fiendfyre (analogous to Goyle) ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• I will attend at least one LessWrong meetup in person, before 2013 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by bobpage on 2012-04-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: Severus Snape is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Ami on 2012-04-18; known on 2014-01-01.

• HP MoR: MoR will win a Hugo for Best Novel 2013-2017 ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-13; known on 2017-09-05.

• By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-04-08; known on 2051-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Quirrel ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Bacon’s diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: There will be at least one character whose Animagus form is another human ( 26% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Dumbledore ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley ( 90% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HPMoR : ch 120 (or sooner): After understanding the death’s place in evolution of life and mind, Harry would refuse become a Creator of the Words. ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 14 comments )

  Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-05-06.

• HPMoR : ch 81 : Harry will marry Hermione and thereby make this a matter between noble houses, and then turn that into a trial by lightsaber of hermy and draco ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by rohit507 on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: ch 81: Harry’s solution will be to set his hair on fire and run around in circles, screaming. ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be offer the Wizengamot Voldemort’s true identity (Quirrel) ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: Nobody in the LW discussion thread will predict Harry’s actual attempted solution (regardless of whether it fails). ( 26% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: Harry will confess to having arranged the attempted murder of Malfoy. ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be threaten to destroy Azkaban ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be make Dumbledore turn himself in to Lucius in exchange for Hermione’s freedom ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be nothing (failure) ( 6% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be invoking Lucius’s debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser ( 35% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.

• Robin Hanson will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2025 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2025-01-01.

• Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2015. ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-28; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is not a character from canon. He is, in fact, a character from an anime. ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-15; known on 2017-01-01.

• “USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Mar 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-31.

• At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020. ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01.

• HP MoR_: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel (a la http://lesswrong.com/lw/ams/harry_potter_and_the_methods_ofrationality/60bb ) ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2013-07-02.

• >=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-12.

• First-year sales of Rowling’s new book will be less than 40% of the first-year sales of Deathly Hallows (44 million according to Wikipedia.) ( 77% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-29; known on 2013-12-20.

• 2020: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01.

• 2020: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 20% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01.

• Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Porejide on 2012-02-18; known on 2032-02-17.

• There will be at least one human being alive on earth even after the end of the year 2012 ( 100% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by vinayak on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will stop posting on Less Wrong before the end of the year. ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry’s conclusion about the blood of Atlantis and the origin of magic is deeply flawed in some respect. ( 42% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-28; known on 2016-01-01.

• HP MoR: Bacon’s diary will turn out to be just a diary. ( 53% confidence; 9 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-02-01; known on 2013-01-16.

• Super Mario Bros. Z episode 9 will be released on or before November 24, 2012. ( 21% confidence )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-01-29; known on 2012-11-24.

• MoR: ch 78 will mention Amanda Knox ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-20.

• “Submit ACTA to Senate” petition will reach 25k signatures by the end of this month. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-02.

• I will ask out the person I currently have a crush on. They will say no. ( 65% confidence; 11 wagers; 15 comments )

  Created by Leo on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by Leo on 2012-01-30.

• United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%) —knb ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-02-01.

• reddit.com/r/GEB/ will fizzle out and not finish GEB. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Boxo on 2011-12-28; known on 2012-07-19.

• Iran will not be invaded or attacked this year ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by modulus on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• Grognor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

• HP MoR: Creation of a Philosopher’s Stone requires the sacrifice of human life. (a la Shyy Zrgny Nypurzvfg) ( 8% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-22; known on 2016-01-01.

• HP MoR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk. ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2014-01-21.

• SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2021-01-01.

• Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by RobertLumley on 2012-01-18.

• Grognor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and me & drethelin will donate $10 to charity as agreed in #lesswrong ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

• Both Congressman Duncan and Senator Corker will individually respond to my e-mail protesting SOPA/PIPA like their office said they would. ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2012-01-18; known on 2012-02-18; judged unknown by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.

• Copyright ruled unconstitutional by a US court before 2016. ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01.

• GoodSearch (http://goodsearch.com/) will continue to operate two years from today. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-01-14; known on 2014-01-14.

• GoodSearch (http://goodsearch.com/) will continue to operate one year from today. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-01-14; known on 2013-01-14.

• Charles Stross will survive to 2032 ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

• HP MoR: ‘I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100’ —shminux ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2014-01-01.

• I will become a Peter Thiel Fellow. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-08-06; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-05.

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0fyO6ypVYI This super-awesome YouTube video will be taken down by the end of the year. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-12-31.

• General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

• I will have read “Predictably Irrational” by January 8, 2012. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-01-11.

• The Church of Kopimism will have over 20k members by 2013. Prediction will be withdrawn if membership stats aren’t available. ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-04; known on 2013-01-01.

• “There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2012-01-06.

• No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.

• Grognor (http://lesswrong.com/user/Grognor) will reach 1000 karma on LessWrong by September 27, 2012, one year after his first comment. ( 88% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-09-27; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-13.

• In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known on 2021-12-24.

• HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black ( 17% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-09-04.

• SOPA will pass through congress, and then it will not be vetoed. ( 50% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Grognor on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-10-16.

• Within 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html) ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Morendil on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20.

• gwern.net referral traffic will average <1000 daily visits in the week a year from now. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-17; known on 2012-12-17.

• Duolingo will have over a million users by 2013. ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2013-01-01.

• Chrome will be the most widely used browser during July 2012 according to StatCounter. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by faws on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-08-05.

• I will reach 1000 karma on LW (http://lesswrong.com/user/RobertLumley) by June 2nd, the anniversary of my first post on LW. ( 68% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08; known in 14 days; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.

• By 2065 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2065-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. ( 61% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-13.

• By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2045-01-01.

• By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2035-01-01; judged unknown by isaacn16 on 2011-10-17.

• By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2025-01-01.

• Before 2013, a new version of NetHack (with version number > 3.4.3) will be available on nethack.org ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-10-09; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will have completed a Master of Science degree in Computer Science by the end of 2013. ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2014-01-01.

• The Richard Dawkins article on Conservapedia will in one year have in its stable form a picture of at least one of Hitler, Stalin, or Lenin ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04.

• gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC) ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

• Google+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2012-08-20.

• By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01.

• Eliezer Yudkowsky’s book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04.

• Eliezer Yudkowsky will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• Ron Paul will be dead by 2017. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2017-01-01.

• Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-25; known on 2039-08-25.

• The next Humble Bundle accepts Bitcoin for payment. ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-12-13.

• Robin Hanson’s brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 42% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.

• Bush will commit suicide by the next 3 years. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2014-08-09.

• ‘Sweden becomes the first oil-free country’ by 2021 ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01.

• ‘Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide’ in 2020 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01.

• Teleportation of simple molecules by 2018 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

• “By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world’s number 1 search engine.” —Yan Bashkin ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-30; known on 2050-01-01.

• “Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by ggreer on 2010-09-30.

• Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030. ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-06.

• A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01.

• “By 2015 more internet requests will originate from mobile phones and other types of embedded devices than from desktop and laptop personal computers.” ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01.

• “By 2014 Twitter like products coupled with person mounted video cameras will allow people to lifecast every moment of their daily experience. Others in the community of users will be able to subscribe to the lives of those they wish to follow.” ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2014-01-01.

• “Immortal mice by 2015” ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01.

• “By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.” ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2025-01-01.

• “By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth…” ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2050-01-01.

• “By 2060 the total population of humans on earth will be less than it is today.” ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2060-01-01.

• “By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.” ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-01-01.

• “By 2020 a completely propellantless (no material particles expelled for propulsion) or “field propulsion-type” aerospace vehicle will land on the Moon.” ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01.

• “Moore’s Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.” ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2052-01-01; judged unknown by Traubert on 2010-08-11.

• “Music CDs compatible with current (2002) CD players will still be sold regularly in 2015.” ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01.

• “By the year 2020, the tickets to space travel – at the least to Moon, will be available over the counter.” ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01.

• “That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.” ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01.

• “In 2012, 75 percept of all revenue for enterprise software companies will be from subscription fees rather than license fees.” ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2012-12-31.

• “The Bet: By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system.” ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

• “Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth.” ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2018-12-31.

• “Orkut to be merged with Google Plus in the near future” —Chris Jolley ( 37% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23.

• Open source MineCraft client by 2014. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2014-01-01.

• “Neither major U. S. political party will hold conventions or indeed primaries to select their 2012 Presidential nominees.” ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-09-10.

• “The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005.” ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-01-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-05.

• By 2025, there will be no 28th Amendment to the Constitution of the USA ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.

• “By 2020, no one will have won a Nobel Prize for work on superstring theory, membrane theory, or some other unified theory describing all the forces of nature.” ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-01-01.

• “By 2012, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times will have referred to Russia as “the world leader in software development” or words to that effect.” ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

• “By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.

• By 2029 no computer – or “machine intelligence” – will have passed the Turing Test. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2029-01-01.

• Config (short for configuration) will appear in the Merriam Webster dictionary as proper word ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-06-24; known on 2014-06-24.

• Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• lukeprog will make >2 predictions on PB during 2012. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2013-01-01.

• Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.

• Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 19% confidence; 23 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-11-05.

• The world will not end in 2012 ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will not consider any of the next four chapters of HPMR to be as good as chapter 74. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 13 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-03-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-03-12.

• Bryan Caplan, or a co-blogger, will write a post on EconLog defending his use of the term “real world” to refer to non-academia in the next two weeks. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-14; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-12-15.

• James Randi will live to be 93 years old. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2011-12-05; known on 2021-08-07.

• The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2041. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.

• Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2020. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01.

• lukeprog will receive <50 individual items of feedback through his form in the next month. ( 67% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-05; known on 2011-12-05; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-05.

• A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. ( 24% confidence; 15 wagers; 18 comments )

  Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-23; known on 2021-01-01.

• Harbinger1 will be generally accepted to be a troll by the PB community ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by shokwave on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-20.

• The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2021. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01.

• Between now and 2022, a religion, subsect, or religious movement will be founded and grow to over 10,000 followers that has explicit ties to Judaism/Christianity/Islam, but rejects the omnipotence of God. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2011-12-03; known on 2022-01-01.

• LW: average IQ in survey will be at or above the 98th percentile and thus eligible for Mensa membership. ( 67% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-11-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.

• The USA will refuse again to commit to new Emmissions Regulations at COP17 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by general on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.

• Larry King’s brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-12-04; known on 2070-01-01.

• The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.