Predictions by HonoreDB

• HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy killed herself accidentally eg. by Fiendfyre (analogous to Goyle) ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy was, at least initially, Imperiused into becoming a Death Eater ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Lily Potter did not give Petunia a magic potion, but actually Imperius’ed her. ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: There are >7 Voldemort Horcruxes ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: 5 Voldemort Horcruxes are where Harry suggested putting hidden things in ch46 ( 61% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Dumbledore possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 85% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Resurrection Stone ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Quirrel ( 67% confidence; 10 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Severus Snape is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Ami on 2012-04-18; known on 2014-01-01.

• HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 81% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-18; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Nobody in the LW discussion thread will predict Harry’s actual attempted solution (regardless of whether it fails). ( 26% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MOR Ch81 Harry’s solution is to use the time turner to go back in time and frame Lord Jugson for doing it by tampering with His/Hermoines/Dracos wands and false memory charming a student. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Pringlescan4 on 2012-03-27; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: Priori Incantatum ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by gryffinp on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-29; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch 81: Harry’s solution will be to set his hair on fire and run around in circles, screaming. ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be have Quirrel make Bella confess to the crime ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be ask for a trial by combat ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be using the Time-turner to smuggle Hermione out under the Cloak ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be using the Time-turner to affect Lucius in some way ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be using the Time-turner to alter Hermione’s testimony to something easily falsifiable ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be using the Time-turner in some way ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will involve destroying one of the Dementors ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be accept Hermione’s imprisonment but order the Dementors to leave her alone ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be offer the Wizengamot Voldemort’s true identity (Quirrel) ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be reveal the truth about Bellatrix’s escape ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be threaten to destroy Azkaban ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be make Dumbledore turn himself in to Lucius in exchange for Hermione’s freedom ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be invoke the Imperius-debts of other Wizengamot members ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be invoking Lucius’s debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser ( 35% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be nothing (failure) ( 6% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• A Republican or Democratic candidate who publicly espouses Scientology will trade >=5% at any point on the Intrade market for his party’s Presidential candidate nomination. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-01; known on 2017-03-01.

• I’ll get a girlfriend this year. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: Bacon’s diary will turn out to be just a diary. ( 53% confidence; 9 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-02-01; known on 2013-01-16.

• HP MoR: Harry’s conclusion about the blood of Atlantis and the origin of magic is deeply flawed in some respect. ( 42% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-28; known on 2016-01-01.

• I will unsubscribe from Erfworld. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-07-27.

• My self-promoting link on /r/shakespeare will have karma >0 and <11. http://www.reddit.com/r/shakespeare/comments/oy0rb/the_tragedy_of_prince_hamlet_and_the_philosophers/ ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-02; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-02-02.

• “There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 21 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

• HP MoR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk. ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2014-01-21.

• HP MoR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did. ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01.

• HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy ( 35% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01.

• Before the end of the year, PredictionBook will offer weighted averages for the community confidence in a prediction, and/or offer an API for others to do so. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-20; known on 2013-01-01.

• Copyright ruled unconstitutional by a US court before 2016. ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01.

• In the comments of http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/, somebody will mention prediction markets in the next three days. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-19; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-16.

• In the next three days, somebody will post an idea on http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/ that I find novel and intriguing. ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-18.

• Nobody will independently recreate my idea in response to http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-18.

• NDAA 2012, H.R. 1540 will be seen as the “end of democracy” in the USA within 5 years. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-01-01.

• No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.

• Q.I. makes it up to “Z”. ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2028-12-31.

• If Romney wins the Republican candidacy, then Obama will publicly offer him a bet sometime during the 2012 presidential campaign. This prediction will be withdrawn if the antecedent proposition is false. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-14; known on 2013-01-01.

• The Dow Jones will finish 2012 below 12000 pts ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by leejhancox on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-01.

• Between now and 2022, a religion, subsect, or religious movement will be founded and grow to over 10,000 followers that has explicit ties to Judaism/Christianity/Islam, but rejects the omnipotence of God. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2011-12-03; known on 2022-01-01.

• “Newt Gingrich to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012.” -Intrade ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-28; known on 2012-12-31.

• The oldest living person on 2020-01-01 will be at least 130 years old. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2020-01-01.

• President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 33% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged unknown by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-04.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. ( 61% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-13.

• Herman Cain’s actual vote share in the 2012 Republican primaries will be significantly lower than his averaged national poll numbers at the time (as indicated by standard measures of statistical significance). ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-08-30.

• Obama’s approval rating will fall below 23% during 2011. —Capital Commentary ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.

• Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 89% confidence; 21 wagers )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07.

• Barack Obama will win the 2012 U.S. presidential election. ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-04.

• The NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2012-03-22; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.