Predictions by Houshalter

• ‘The African Central Bank is established’ in 2018 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2019-01-01.

• ‘We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months.’ —Jason Calacanis ( 50% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-16; known on 2012-11-15; judged unknown by Houshalter on 2011-05-17.

• PredictionBook.com will not be an active prediction registry in 2025. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-09-22; known on 2025-09-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-23.

• By 2014, Iran will have detonated a nuclear bomb. ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2014-01-01.

• ‘Most phone calls are made via the Internet’ in 2014 ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01.

• ‘Laser guns are in naval use’ in 2016 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2017-01-01.

• The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged unknown by Houshalter on 2010-06-26.

• The sun will not become a nova during this year. ( 100% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-14.

• Another beloved celebrity will die before the year is over ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by maskath@hotmail.com on 2010-06-04; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.

• Neither USA nor Israel will execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before 30 Jun 2010 ( 80% confidence; 9 wagers )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-06-30; judged right by rwallace on 2010-06-30.

• Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 3009-10-17.

• this will be the most popular prediction EVER ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-08-02; known on 3008-08-02; judged wrong by Grognor 1 day ago.

• reach 600 facebook fans by June 25th ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Frank on 2010-05-17; known on 2010-06-26; judged wrong by Frank on 2010-06-26.

• Another company will come out with a game console next generation thats not Microsoft, Sony, or Nintendo. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2017-06-01.

• There will be another major natural disaster before the years over ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-06.

• Barack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion) ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-11-06.

• USA will be out of the Middle East by the end of 2012 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-12-31.

• United States will invade Australia and take over ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2020-12-31.

• Justin Bieber’s voice will break in the coming year. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by DianneD on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-12-04; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-10.

• The Indian economy will surpass the USA economy by 2020 ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by ravneetrox on 2010-05-06; known on 2020-05-06.

• Bin Laden and USA are working together ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by ravneetrox on 2010-05-06; known on 2030-05-06.

• California will receive a bailout from the Federal government in 2010. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 18 comments )

  Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by dakyne on 2010-11-03.