Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 0% | 17% | 50% | 80% | 100% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 1 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 26 |
Predictions by InTrade
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The President of the Czech Republic will sign the Lisbon Treaty before the end of June, 2010. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by Cyan on 2009-11-10.
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Osama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Roman Polanski will be extradited to the United States before the end of next year. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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One or more persons will be charged with the manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael Jackson before the end of the year. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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US Unemployment Rate in Dec 2009 will be greater than 10.00% ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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Dow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 6500 ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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Dow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 6000 ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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Dow Jones will close ON or ABOVE 8000 at end of 2009 ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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US GDP will not decline by 10.0% or more from its peak value between Q4 2008 and Q4 2009 (inclusive) ( 95% confidence )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Democratic Party Candidate will not win Virginia gubernatorial election ( 91% confidence )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by freyley on 2009-11-05.
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Labour party will not win next UK General Election ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Democratic Candidate will win New Jersey Gubernatorial Race ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-11-05.
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Mark Sanford will not depart as Governor of South Carolina before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 ( 79% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.
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Donny Osmond and partner will not win Dancing with the Stars ( 66% confidence )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-01.
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Neither USA nor Israel will execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before 30 Jun 2010 ( 80% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-06-30; judged right by rwallace on 2010-06-30.
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An announcement will be made before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that 10,000+ additional troops will be sent to Afghanistan ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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A federal government run health insurance plan will not be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.