Statistics
| Predicted Certainty | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Certainty | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 50% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
Predictions by JFE
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Will this prediction have an average prediction of less than 50%? (The only way to be right is if more people predict the opposite of you) ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JFE 2 months ago; known in 3 months.
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The Indian economy will surpass the USA economy by 2020 ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ravneetrox 4 months ago; known in over 9 years.
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California will receive a bailout from the Federal government in 2010. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by dakyne 3 months ago; known in 3 months; judged unknown by gwern 24 days ago.
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At least one current member will drop out of the Euro. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt Newport 2 months ago; known in about 1 year.
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Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jonii 10 months ago; known in over 6 years; judged unknown by jasticE 10 months ago.
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There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jack 10 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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Neither USA nor Israel will execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before 30 Jun 2010 ( 80% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged right by rwallace 2 months ago.
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Germany will be governed by a CDU + FDP coalition during april, may, and june of 2010. ( 90% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Drahflow 10 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged right by JFE 2 months ago.
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This site will have a feature to hide other people’s prediction results until after one has voted. This will be implemented at most within two weeks. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kess3r 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by anonym 9 months ago.
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The Pirate Party will enter the Parliament of Berlin (Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus) in the 2011 election. ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl 10 months ago; known in about 1 year.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 72% confidence; 37 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by MBlume 10 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by bogdanb 9 months ago.