Predictions by JFE

• “By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany.” ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-01-01.

• Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2023-01-01.

• The people who join this prediction until friday will bet 45% to 55% on average. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-11-05.

• CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein’s general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-09.

• “I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 13% confidence; 15 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08.

• The average of this bet will be 90% to 100% until friday. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-05.

• As of 2012-12-21, the OPERA neutrino anomaly at CERN will not have been reproduced by anyone, anywhere. ( 88% confidence; 14 wagers; 15 comments )

  Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-18.

• ‘By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.’ —David Eagleman ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.

• ‘[I] believe that the answer to the dark matter question will be found within a decade.’ —John Ellis ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2020-01-01.

• Ecuador to be paid 3.6bn USD to not develop its oil reserves & preserve its rainforest. ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2014-01-01.

• Will this prediction have an average prediction of less than 50%? (The only way to be right is if more people predict the opposite of you) ( 50% confidence; 31 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JFE on 2010-07-02; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JFE on 2011-01-06.

• The Indian economy will surpass the USA economy by 2020 ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by ravneetrox on 2010-05-06; known on 2020-05-06.

• California will receive a bailout from the Federal government in 2010. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 18 comments )

  Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by dakyne on 2010-11-03.

• At least one current member will drop out of the Euro. ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by faws on 2011-12-17.

• Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Jonii on 2009-10-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged unknown by jasticE on 2009-10-17.

• There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 37% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.

• Neither USA nor Israel will execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before 30 Jun 2010 ( 80% confidence; 9 wagers )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-06-30; judged right by rwallace on 2010-06-30.

• Germany will be governed by a CDU + FDP coalition during april, may, and june of 2010. ( 90% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Drahflow on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by JFE on 2010-07-02.

• This site will have a feature to hide other people’s prediction results until after one has voted. This will be implemented at most within two weeks. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by kess3r on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-28; judged wrong by anonym on 2009-12-03.

• The Pirate Party will enter the Parliament of Berlin (Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus) in the 2011 election. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by faws on 2011-09-23.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.