Predictions by Jack

Predictions by Jack

• Lebron to play for the New York Knicks in the 2010-2011 season. ( 65% confidence )

  Created by Jack 21 days ago; known 20 days ago; judged wrong by Jack 12 days ago.

• Will this prediction have an average prediction of less than 50%? (The only way to be right is if more people predict the opposite of you) ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by JFE 26 days ago; known in 5 months.

• The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 94% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by Houshalter about 1 month ago; known in over 2 years; judged unknown by Houshalter about 1 month ago.

• The US will come in the top 5 in total number gold medals won at the 2010 Winter Olympics ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by AJF 5 months ago; known 5 months ago; judged right by d403 5 months ago.

• Prediction book will get some desperately needed moderation. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jack 5 months ago; known 4 months ago; judged wrong by al3xal3x 4 months ago.

• The Cavs will not win the NBA championship in the 09/10 season ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by nicolas 5 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged right by Jack about 1 month ago.

• The University of Kentucky Men’s basketball team will not win the 2010 NCAA Division 1 Championship. ( 85% confidence )

  Created by Jack 6 months ago; known 3 months ago; judged right by Jack about 1 month ago.

• saints win Superbowl ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by hoodoo2 8 months ago; known 5 months ago; judged right by hoodoo2 5 months ago.

• Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by scott.arbeitman 7 months ago; known in over 9 years.

• I will graduate from college in May of next year. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Jack 7 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged right by Jack about 1 month ago.

• The “LessWrong Singularity article” will be accepted for publication. http://lesswrong.com/lw/1fz/a_less_wrong_singularity_article/ ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by Pavitra 8 months ago; known 4 months ago; judged wrong by Morendil 4 months ago.

• Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. ( 99% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Citizen553 8 months ago; known in over 149 years; judged unknown by Jack 6 months ago.

• PredictionBook will implement tagging for predictions in the next two months. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by ChristianKl 9 months ago; known 7 months ago; judged wrong by Jack 7 months ago.

• Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )

  Created by InTrade 9 months ago; known in over 2 years; judged unknown by anonym 9 months ago.

• Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by TheScholar 9 months ago; known in over 999 years.

• The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jack 9 months ago; known in over 9 years; judged unknown by freyley 9 months ago.

• The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by freyley 9 months ago; known in over 16 years; judged unknown by freyley 9 months ago.

• Real soon now, there will be some public debate about whether PredictionBook is better suited to deal with personal-life type events or global-public-interest type events ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by jes5199 9 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged wrong by jes5199 9 months ago.

• This site will have a feature to hide other people’s prediction results until after one has voted. This will be implemented at most within two weeks. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by kess3r 9 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged wrong by anonym 7 months ago.

• There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 8% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by anonym 9 months ago; known in over 5 years; judged unknown by ledflyd 8 months ago.

• Some group in Pakistan has already developed a super-intelligence (as of 2009). ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by mjgeddes 9 months ago; known in over 4 years; judged unknown by freyley 9 months ago.

• There will be more than 1000 PB predictions before Fri. Oct. 23, 2009. There are ~ 650 @ 6PM PDT, Sun. Oct. 18. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by anonym 9 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged wrong by freyley 9 months ago.

• In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 37% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl 9 months ago; known in over 60 years.

• In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl 9 months ago; known in over 50 years.

• One year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of a financial institution that has over $10 billion in assets. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by JamesMiller 9 months ago; known in over 7 years.

• Weed will not be legalized in California for the next 5 years ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by aurasprw 9 months ago; known about 1 year ago; judged unknown by anonym 9 months ago.

• There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by anonym 9 months ago; known in over 5 years; judged unknown by Jack 9 months ago.

• Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by TheScholar 9 months ago; known in over 19 years; judged unknown by Jack 8 months ago.

• Neither Eliezer nor Robin will have more than 10 public predictions recorded before Monday ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt 9 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged right by Matt 9 months ago.

• There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by ChristianKl 9 months ago; known in over 2 years; judged unknown by anonym 9 months ago.

• There will be a transport (train, air, boat etc) accident killing more than 1000 people before 14 october 2010. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Arenamontanus 9 months ago; known in 2 months.

• The sun will not become a nova during this year. ( 100% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bogdanb 9 months ago; known in 2 months; judged unknown by anonym 9 months ago.

• Germany will be governed by a CDU + FDP coalition during april, may, and june of 2010. ( 90% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Drahflow 9 months ago; known 28 days ago; judged right by JFE 26 days ago.

• The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 32% confidence; 20 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by max 9 months ago; known in 5 months; judged wrong by tjross 4 months ago.

• General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 100% confidence; 25 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by bogdanb 9 months ago; known in 2 months; judged unknown by Morendil 8 months ago.

• A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by rwallace 9 months ago; known in over 29 years; judged unknown by freyley 9 months ago.

• Generic AI won’t happen in the next 10 years. ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers )

  Created by bogdanb 9 months ago; known in over 9 years; judged unknown by anonym 9 months ago.

• Google will buy Twitter by 2010 ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by Glenn over 2 years ago; known 6 months ago; judged wrong by thephilosiraptor 6 months ago.

• I will fall asleep before 4 am. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Jack 9 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged right by Jack 9 months ago.

• Civil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by max 9 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by anonym 9 months ago.

• FOX will not pick up the show “Dollhouse” for a third season. ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jack 9 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by Jack 8 months ago.

• Bayesian Induction will be proven to be merely a special case of analogical reasoning by 2014 ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by mjgeddes 9 months ago; known in over 3 years; judged unknown by anonym 9 months ago.

• Lebron James will sign a contract with a team that is not the Cleveland Cavaliers for the 2010-11 season. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jack 9 months ago; known in 2 months; judged right by Jack 12 days ago.

• The world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams ( 100% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Glenn about 1 year ago; known 7 months ago; judged right by rwallace 7 months ago.

• The sun will rise tomorrow morning ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by uninverted 9 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged right by anonym 9 months ago.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 71% confidence; 36 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by MBlume 9 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by bogdanb 8 months ago.

• There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by Jack 9 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by anonym 9 months ago.

• Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Jonii 9 months ago; known in over 6 years; judged unknown by jasticE 9 months ago.