Predictions by JamesMiller

• Democratic Candidate will win New Jersey Gubernatorial Race ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-11-05.

• Roman Polanski will be extradited to the United States before the end of next year. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.

• The President of the Czech Republic will sign the Lisbon Treaty before the end of June, 2010. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by Cyan on 2009-11-10.

• One year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of Goldman Sacks. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-16; known on 2017-01-01.

• One year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of a financial institution that has over $10 billion in assets. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-16; known on 2018-01-01.

• The sun will not become a nova during this year. ( 100% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-14.

• Labour party will not win next UK General Election ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• The child currently in the runaway balloon will survive ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

  Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-18; judged right by Jack on 2009-10-16.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• By January 1, 2011 one or more of the following will happen (1) Israel will launch a military attack against Iran, (2) The U.S. will launch a military attack against Iran or (3) a significant number of countries will ban the sale of gasoline to Iran. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-02.

• A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.