Most recent predictions by Jayson Virissimo

• The next elected President of the United States will be either a Republican or a Democrat. ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known in 24 days.

• Libertarian Party wins presidency in 2020. ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16.

• It will be revealed that Trump's goal in running for President was to see Clinton elected, in a kind of false-flag shill operation. ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JohnWittle on 2016-08-04; known on 2017-01-01.

• Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.

• My PredictionBook score will be higher than the then current site average in one month ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Matt on 2014-05-29; known on 2014-07-06.

• My PredictionBook score will be higher than the current disappointing 1.09 in one month ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2014-05-29; known on 2014-07-06.

• At least one person will die before 2018 from injuries produced during a VR experience, and this will be publicly known. ( 63% confidence; 11 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2016-05-17; known on 2018-01-01.

• Humanity still a thing in 2036 ( 87% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-13; known on 2036-12-31.

• Summer 2016 to be the warmest summer of US history ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-03; known on 2017-01-01.

• Lee Sedol attempts suicide ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2017-01-01.

• Ke Jie loses to AlphaGo ( 87% confidence; 15 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2018-01-01.

• Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war) ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2016-07-01.

• Sweden declares war against Norway ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.

• There are ground troops from one or more then EU member states that are at least 1000 persons strong on ground of what is currently Syria at least once before the end of prediction. ( 30% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by kuudes on 2015-11-16; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-07-01.

• Saudi Arabia and Turkey will be invaded by Russian forces before 2017. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Znt on 2015-10-13; known on 2017-01-01.

• I will perform at least 1 set of 100 push ups and 1 set of 20 pulls up before 2016. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-01-03.

• I will perform at least 1 set of 100 push ups before 2016. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-01-03.

• I will perform at least 1 set of 20 pull ups before 2016. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-01-03.

• I will get a job offer from Le Tote. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-10; known on 2015-08-25; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-18.

• I will get a job offer from Tuft and Needle. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-10; known on 2015-08-25; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-21.

• I will get a job offer from GoDaddy. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-13; known on 2015-08-29; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-28.

• I will get at least one job offer. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-08-28; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-18.

• The Schengen Agreement will be terminated within 5 years. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by danpop on 2015-08-29; known on 2018-08-29.

• Ted Cruz to win the Republican nomination for President. ( 14% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by brunoparga on 2016-07-20.

• Artificial eyes which allow the user to score 20/20 or better on a visual acuity test will be developed by 2050 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by btrettel on 2015-08-25; known on 2050-01-02.

• Bernie Sanders will win the 2016 Iowa Democratic caucus. ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-25; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-02.

• Joe Biden will win the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. ( 10% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-25; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-09-02.

• Non-condom reversible male contraception approved by the FDA by 2030 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by btrettel on 2015-08-23; known on 2030-01-02.

• The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in September. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-08-23; known on 2015-09-17; judged right by Afforess on 2015-09-17.

• Uber will be banned from Manhattan by the end of 2016. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers )

  Created by mikayla on 2015-08-21; known on 2016-12-31.

• Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )

  Created by btrettel on 2015-08-19; known on 2051-01-01.

• Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. ( 14% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by quanticle on 2015-08-14; known on 2025-08-15.

• In the next month, Bernie Sanders will have another public appearance disrupted by BLM activists. ( 18% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-12; known on 2015-09-12; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-17.

• Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 20% confidence; 51 wagers; 18 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known in 25 days.

• The US Congress will override the Iran nuclear deal. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-29; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-01.

• Congress will reauthorize the Export-Import Bank by the end of August. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-09-01.

• “Some p2p cryptocurrency is going to become THE world reserve currency this decade” – Jacob Cannell ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.

• Blockchain-based social platform to come out by 2020, and become a Top 1000 site (https://medium.com/@ryanxcharles/fix-reddit-with-bitcoin-7da3f85fb9ba ) ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.

• Titan to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.

• Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.

• Europa to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers )

  Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01.

• John Kerry to run for President in 2016 ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-26; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by brunoparga on 2016-07-27.

• PredictionBook will feature a JSON API before August. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-24; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-01.

• At least one major stock exchange will have 24/7 trading hours before the end of 2030 ( 63% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Afforess on 2015-07-23; known on 2030-12-31; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.

• Donald Trump to run as a third party candidate in the 2016 election. ( 11% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-23; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by brunoparga on 2016-07-20.

• US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by brunoparga on 2016-07-27.

• PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 72% confidence; 20 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31.

• Conditional on getting a vasectomy in 2016, I will regret the operation by the start of 2027 ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by btrettel on 2015-07-03; known on 2027-01-01.

• Jeb Bush to be the 2016 Republican nominee. ( 49% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.

• ISIS will continue to exist through the end of 2015. ( 97% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.

• ISIS will control less territory at the end of 2015 than it does right now. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.

• Syria’s civil war will not end before 2016. ( 93% confidence; 51 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02.

• Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state for the remainder of 2015. ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Madplatypus on 2016-01-03.

• Assad will remain President of Syria for the remainder of 2015. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.

• No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people before 2016. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.

• Ebola will kill fewer people in second half of 2015 than the in first half. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02.

• Neither Russia nor Qatar will lose their World Cups before 2016. ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-01-27.

• Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro before 2016. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-02.

• North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt before 2016. ( 89% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.

• US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers before 2016. ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.

• Stephen Harper will be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2015. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-06-02.

• PRI win the largest number of seats in the June legislative elections in Mexico. ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-08; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-06-29.

• By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2025-01-01.

• Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the US presidential election by March 17th, 2016, and Martin O'Malley to be the Democratic nominee. ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-23; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-17.

• I will get attacked on Tera while leveling because people are cunts. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Moobile on 2015-05-11; known on 2015-05-12; judged right by Moobile on 2015-05-12.

• Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.

• Floyd Mayweather will defeat Manny Pacquiao. ( 55% confidence )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by btrettel on 2015-05-03.

• I will get hired as a full employee (non-contractor) by a software company within a week from now. ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-05-02.

• By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ( 93% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-24; known on 2030-01-01.

• TrikeApps will merge my PredictionBook API pull request within a week. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-28.

• Rand Paul to win the Republican party nomination for President. ( 10% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-08; known on 2016-07-22; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-05-03.

• Greece will cease to be on the Euro by 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-02-11; known on 2018-01-01.

• Obama signs executive order legalizing marijuana on the last day of his presidency. ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by RESO on 2015-02-05; known on 2017-01-20; judged unknown by asd on 2015-02-19.

• Greece, will still have the Euro at the end of 2016 ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2017-01-01.

• I will be working as a software developer before 03/17/2015. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-15.

• HP MoR: Bacon's diary will turn out to be just a diary. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 19 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.

• HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

• My PredictionBook clone will have basic functionality (create predictions, assign probabilities, make judgments, and a tutorial showing how to do each) before 12/15/2014. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-12-01; known on 2014-12-15; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-12-04.

• The Republicans will repeal the ACA by November 2015. *I'm going to withdraw this prediction as I wasn't thinking that the Republicans do not hold enough seats to override a presidential veto. ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by ren on 2014-11-11; known on 2015-11-08; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2015-11-04.

• I will be working as a software developer before 07/01/2015. ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-11-17; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-20.

• I won't convert to Christianity within the next year ( 99% confidence; 9 wagers )

  Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-08; known on 2015-10-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

• We will have permanent off-Earth colonies by 2020 ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-04; known on 2020-01-16.

• Hillary Clinton will not become the next president of the USA ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by truerepublican on 2014-10-18; known in 22 days.

• I won't post, comment, or tweet on Facebook or Twitter between October 6th and the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-10-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-01.

• Venezuela will undergo sovereign default before 2016. ( 8% confidence; 60 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-09-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.

• Assange leaves the embassy within a year. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2015-08-18; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-08-18.

• some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-21; known on 2024-07-21.

• Luke turns, or has turned, to the Dark Side in Star Wars episode 7. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2014-07-20; known on 2015-12-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26.

• Bitcoin will be traded for >$1000 within 2014 ( 38% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by qznc on 2014-07-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2015-01-01.

• The Kingdom of North Sudan will be officially recognized by the African Union before 2015. ( 1% confidence )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14.

• Germany will defeat Argentina in their World Cup game today. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-13; known on 2014-07-14; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-13.

• Bryan Caplan will win his bet on climate statistics with Yoram Bauman. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12; known on 2030-01-01.

• waveman will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 3Q 2014. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12; known on 2014-10-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2014-10-01.

• I will not watch any of The Americans until July 26 2014 ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2014-07-12; known on 2014-07-26; judged right by bobpage on 2014-07-26.

• I will get a tax refund this year ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by mad on 2014-07-08; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-07-29.

• HP MoR: Harry had a hand in the disappearance of Hermione's corpse. ( 80% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by ygert on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-06-23; judged right by Roxolan on 2015-03-01.

• If the USG bombs Syria before 2014, then by the year 2015 Syria will be a democracy and the two largest political parties will be secular. ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-10; known on 2015-01-01.

• “no matter how many scare headlines you read, ISIS will never take Baghdad” – The war nerd. ( 77% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.

• Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 15% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.

• I will lose at least 18lbs in the six months after starting the Shangri-La Diet, and maintain the diet for that duration, defined as taking at least 100kcal of near-tasteless calories on at least an average of four days each week. ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by jbeshir on 2014-06-14; known on 2014-12-14; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2015-02-28.