PredictionBook: Predictions by Jayson Virissimo

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	51%	59%	81%	88%	96%	96%
Sample Size	69	56	36	16	71	24	272

“By January 21, 2016, Facebook will not have the largest market share of social network users who log in at least once per day.” —John Feminella ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2016-01-21.

Sister Y still alive in 2013. ( 94% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01.

Batman the Dark Knight Rises will do worse than expected (4wk gross < 415m on HSX) ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker 5 days ago; known on 2012-08-31.

I will complete my Anki physics deck and merge it with my master deck within the next 10 hours. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 4 days ago; known 3 days ago; judged right by Jayson Virissimo 3 days ago.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 4 days ago; known 3 days ago; judged right by Jayson Virissimo 3 days ago.

I will complete chapter 16 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 4 days ago; known 3 days ago; judged right by Jayson Virissimo 3 days ago.

Conditional on working any days, Grognor will work 1<=x<=14 months for Walmart. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern 6 days ago; known on 2013-08-14.

Eduardo Saverin will un-renounce or try to regain his US citizenship sometime in his life ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker 6 days ago; known on 2072-12-31.

the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. —S. Jay Olshansky ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-29; known on 2100-01-01.

I will attend my Statistics exam. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by acephalus 7 days ago; known in 27 days.

“From 2008 to 2011, sales of professional and personal service robots more than double – from 5.5 million to over 11.5 million.” ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker 6 days ago.

I will have sex with a woman before 2013. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by acephalus 7 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

I will pass my Geometry course. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by acephalus 7 days ago; known on 2012-08-22.

Esmat will fail at least 4 papers in his finals. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-04; known in 22 days.

When I retest my IQ at the end of my n-back experiment my IQ will have increased by equal to or greater than 5 points. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 8 days ago; known on 2012-07-01.

Eliezer Yudkowsky retracts or significantly edits one of the posts in the quantum physics sequence in the next two years. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by papermachine 16 days ago; known on 2014-05-03.

I will still be alive in 2078. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 8 days ago; known on 2078-01-01.

I will die by non-suicide means by the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Grognor 10 days ago; known on 2012-12-31.

I will squat 1.5x my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with equal to or less than 1 minute rests before 2013. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 10 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

I will deadlift 1.5x my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with equal to or less than 1 minute rests before 2013. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 10 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

I will run 4 miles in 30 minutes or less before 2013. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 10 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

I will complete chapter 1 of Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid within the next 10 hours. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 12 days ago; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo 11 days ago.

Japan will restart nuclear reactors before end of 2020 ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by RandomThinker 14 days ago; known on 2020-12-31.

General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

I will complete chapter 10 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 8 hours. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 13 days ago; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo 12 days ago.

Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern 18 days ago; known on 2022-05-01.

By the end of the summer, I will have memorized 1000 words in Italian. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pkfalu92 15 days ago; known on 2012-09-01.

By the end of the summer, I will have memorized over 500 words in Italian. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pkfalu92 15 days ago; known on 2012-09-01.

I will complete Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots within the next 150 days. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 16 days ago; known on 2012-09-30.

I will complete Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty within the next 120 days. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 16 days ago; known on 2012-08-31.

I will complete Metal Gear Solid within the next 90 days. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 16 days ago; known on 2012-08-01.

I will complete Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker within the next 60 days. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 16 days ago; known on 2012-07-02.

I will complete Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater within the next 30 days. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 16 days ago; known in 14 days; judged right by Jayson Virissimo about 5 hours ago.

Hugo Chavez dies in the year 2012 ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-12-31.

I will attempt suicide this year ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Leo 17 days ago; known on 2013-05-03.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 18 days ago; known 17 days ago; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo 17 days ago.

I will complete chapter 9 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 18 days ago; known 17 days ago; judged right by Jayson Virissimo 17 days ago.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 7 hours. ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 18 days ago; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo 18 days ago.

I will go back to China before Chirstmas this year. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by happyday 18 days ago; known on 2012-08-09.

I will complete chapter 8 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 7 hours. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 18 days ago; known 18 days ago; judged right by Jayson Virissimo 18 days ago.

Planetary Resources won’t be mining asteroids by 2020 ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker 24 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

Santorum won’t be a top 3 candidate in 2016 republican primary (measured by returns in South Carolina primary) ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-11; known on 2016-02-15.

The Dictator (movie with Sasha Baren Cohen) will do better than expected (measured by 4 wk US gross > $68m now on HSX) ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-06-30.

“I predict Google will be the biggest and most important company in the world in 5-8 years.” —Jason Kottke ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2017-08-07.

I will finish Learn Python the Hard way by the end of the School Year ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by meisnewbie 20 days ago; known in 29 days.

I will complete chapter 8 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 20 days ago; known 19 days ago; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo 19 days ago.

Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.

I will pass exam 220-702 tomorrow. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 23 days ago; known 22 days ago; judged right by Jayson Virissimo 22 days ago.

I will complete chapter 8 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 4 hours. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 24 days ago; known 24 days ago; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo 24 days ago.

I will listen to the entire lecture series Practicing Mindfulness: An Introduction to Meditation by Mark W. Muesse within the next 3 weeks. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 24 days ago; known 3 days ago.

Given that they complete a least 48 attempted replications, less than 5% of the replications the reproducibility project* is attempting will successfully replicate at the p<.05 level. http://openscienceframework.org/project/shvrbV8uSkHewsfD4/wiki/index ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-04-19; known on 2022-10-10.

I will complete chapter 7 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 5 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 26 days ago; known 26 days ago; judged right by Jayson Virissimo 26 days ago.

I will run equal to or greater than 5 k before going to work tonight at an average rate of 7 mph or greater. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo 27 days ago; known 27 days ago; judged right by Jayson Virissimo 27 days ago.

Nosek’s project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=30% of them are failed replications. ( 70% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lweismantel 30 days ago; known on 2013-04-01.

I will sleep on the plane. ( 5% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-17; known on 2012-04-18; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-17.

I will complete chapter 3 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 66% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-16; known on 2012-04-16; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-16.

I will complete chapter 2 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 6 hours. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-04-15; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-15.

My “Master Deck” for Anki will exceed 2,000 flash cards before June, 2012. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-14; known in 13 days; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-16.

I will finish my physics Anki deck within the next 5 hours. ( 65% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-04-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-14.

HP MoR: MoR will win a Hugo for Best Novel 2013-2017 ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-13; known on 2017-09-05.

I will complete chapter 2 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Physics: Second Edition within the next 5 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12.

I will attend at least 1 Less Wrong meetup between now and 2013. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2013-01-01.

I will complete chapter 3 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Learning Latin within the next 5 hours. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12.

I will complete chapter 1 of All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide: Fourth Edition within 5 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12.

I will successfully complete an internet programming job (PHP/Rails/something like that) on oDesk and be paid for it before May 1. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by Anubhav 18 days ago.

Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson ( 98% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07.

I will complete chapter 2 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Learning Latin within the next 10 hours. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-11; known on 2012-04-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-11.

I will attend at least one LessWrong meetup in person, before 2013 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bobpage on 2012-04-10; known on 2013-01-01.

I will complete chapter 26 of All-In-One CompTIA A+ Certification Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-10; known on 2012-04-10; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-10.

‘Terabyte SD cards will be available’ in 2014 ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01.

By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-04-08; known on 2051-01-01.

I will complete my Anki review for the day. ( 99% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-09; known on 2012-04-09; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-09.

George Zimmerman will be convicted of murder or manslaughter for the shooting of Trayvon Martin before 2015. ( 44% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

The minecraft apocalypse server (reddit/r/mcapoc) will be wiped in the next year. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Danny_Hintze on 2012-03-26; known on 2013-07-02.

I will complete chapter 23 of All-In-One CompTIA A+ Certification Exam Guide within the next 5 hours. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-06; known on 2012-04-06; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-06.

I will complete the All-In-One CompTIA A+ Certification Exam Guide: Seventh Edition within the next 2 weeks. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05; known on 2012-04-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-11.

I will complete all my physics practice problems correctly. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05; known on 2012-04-06; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05.

I will become a permanent employee before June ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by happyday on 2012-04-05; known in 13 days.

I will complete and merge all of my incomplete Anki decks into a single master deck within the next 12 hours. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05; known on 2012-04-05; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05.

I will complete my Security+ Anki deck within the next 12 hours. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05; known on 2012-04-05.

HP MoR: ch 85 (or sooner): Headmaster would allow Harry to exploit vulnerabilities of the magic Britain’s economics to get out of debt (to Malfoy for his Hermione’s “purchase”). ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known in 22 days; judged wrong by HonoreDB 26 days ago.

Google will actually produce Google Maps 8-Bit for NES (http://goo.gl/zA1BJ), and will announce this before the end of April. ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-03-31; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke 18 days ago.

HPMoR : ch 120 (or sooner): After understanding the death’s place in evolution of life and mind, Harry would refuse become a Creator of the Words. ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-05-06.

HP MoR: ch 85 (or sooner): Dumbledore will realize where and when did Harry had an opportunity not just to terrify Dementors, but to gain enough confidence in this achievement. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known in 22 days; judged wrong by HonoreDB 26 days ago.

HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2013-01-01.

During the easter holidays, we will drive to a random forest and listen to owl city’s ‘fire flies’ with all the car lights off…… ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by happyday on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-04-10.

i won’t make any compliants this week and there will be no argument between me and my hubby until the easter holiday finished ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by happyday on 2012-04-02; known on 2012-04-18; judged right by happyday on 2012-04-10.

I will finish The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Learning Latin before the end of the year. ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-02; known on 2013-01-01.

Apple will buy Twitter before end of 2013 ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-12-31.

We will obtain our DDD contract by June 2012. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Primeval on 2012-03-30; known in 13 days.

I will complete The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Physics: Second Edition before 2013. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-30; known on 2013-01-01.

My wife and I will complete the 2nd version of the business plan within the next 36 hours. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-29; known on 2012-03-31; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-30.

I will obtain the CompTIA Linux+ Powered by LPI certification before 2013. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-29; known on 2013-01-01.

I will obtain the CompTIA Security+ certification before 2013. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-29; known on 2013-01-01.

I will complete my Network+ Anki deck in less than 48 hours from now. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-29; known on 2012-03-31; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-30.

SpaceX sends a passenger flight to Mars by 2023. ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-22; known on 2013-01-01.

i won’t get present for easter at all ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by happyday on 2012-03-27; known on 2012-04-09; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-04-07.

HPMoR : ch 81 : Harry will marry Hermione and thereby make this a matter between noble houses, and then turn that into a trial by lightsaber of hermy and draco ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by rohit507 on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-28.

My $300 fine will get waived after SDRO review ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by williamycai on 2012-03-24; known 15 days ago.

At least 15 people will attend the next Student Economics Association roundtable. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Danny_Hintze on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-03-30; judged wrong by Danny_Hintze on 2012-03-30.

http://dkmvs.com/ will be a viral hit in 30 days. Edit: Let’s define “hit” as averaging > 1,000 page views a day for 3 days prior to the outcome being known. ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by scott.arbeitman on 2012-03-21; known 29 days ago; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman 17 days ago.

Ben won’t show up to the tutorial today (23/3/12) ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-23; judged right by JeffreyTse on 2012-03-23.

HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be invoking Lucius’s debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser ( 35% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.

I will have reduced excess fat to the point that I will have visible abs. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-03-31.

>=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-12.

I predict that I will invest at least 15% of my earnings in the next 4 months. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Artis on 2011-11-07; known on 2012-03-07.

Grognor (http://lesswrong.com/user/Grognor) will reach 1000 karma on LessWrong by September 27, 2012, one year after his first comment. ( 88% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-09-27; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-13.

I will retest my IQ in 60 days and it will be at least 5 points greater than it is today. ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-09; known 11 days ago; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo 8 days ago.

By 2020, there will have been at least 5 assassinations that were predicted by a prediction market (and known as such). ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01.

I will read Deus Ex: Icarus Effect in less than 1 month from now. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-04-05; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-21.

Windows will have greater than 12% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now). ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-02; known on 2013-03-01.

US obesity is going down (2012 “obesity” as measured by government health data will be lower than the percentage in 2011) ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05; known on 2013-02-15.

An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030. ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2030-01-01.

An off-planet Playboy Club is operational before 2020. ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2020-01-01.

“The Supreme Court will uphold ObamaCare” —jdgalt ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known in 11 days.

I will continue posting on my blog until the end of this year. ( 50% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-01; known on 2013-01-01.

Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.

I will have taken over at least one country by 2035. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-13; known on 2035-01-01.

The DirectTV guy won’t be able to install our satellite dish on our West facing balcony. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Primeval on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-02-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-11.

I will make it to the top of camelback mountain tomorrow morning. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Primeval on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-10.

Trike IT will have migrated to being a python shop ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Adam on 2009-02-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by Matt on 2012-04-05.

‘By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.’ —Kevin ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2021-01-01.

USA will collapse before the People’s Republic of China. ( 38% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-04; known on 2030-01-01.

I will purchase Deus Ex 3 within 1 week and complete it (at least once) in less than 2 weeks after purchase. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-29; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-17.

Sets, Logic, and Maths for Computing will arrive on or before 04/10/2012. ( 66% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-04-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-24.

Sets, Logic, and Maths for Computing will arrive on or before 04/05/2012. ( 33% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-04-06; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-24.

My Network+ exam guide will arrive on or before 02/17/2012. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-18; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-10.

My Network+ exam guide will arrive on or before 02/13/2012. ( 33% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-14; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-10.

Second Falklands War before 2035 ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-07; known on 2035-01-01.

There will be at least one human being alive on earth even after the end of the year 2012 ( 100% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by vinayak on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-01-01.

I will complete exercise 11 of Learning Ruby the Hard Way within the next 28 hours. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-02-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08.

I will complete The Pragmatic Programmer before March, 2012. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-04.

I will complete Exercise 10 of Learning Ruby the Hard Way within the next 26 hours. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-07.

I will sign up for cryonics before 2020. ( 20% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known on 2020-01-01.

I will stop posting on Less Wrong before the end of the year. ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known on 2013-01-01.

I will get a remote researcher position at the Singularity Institute before the end of the month. ( 15% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-04.

HP MoR: Bacon’s diary will turn out to be just a diary. ( 53% confidence; 9 wagers; 16 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-02-01; known on 2013-01-16.

Initial release of iPhone 5 or iPad 3 (or their market names) will allow installing your own applications, without jailbreaking or signing up for a developer program ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bobpage on 2012-02-05; known on 2012-07-01.

By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01.

I’ll get a girlfriend this year. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01.

I’ll stop biting my nails for at least 2 consecutive weeks sometime this year. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01.

I will get a boyfriend this year. ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-03; known on 2013-01-01.

I will eat a slice of bread with cheese next Friday. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-10; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-02-10.

My grandmother will die this year. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01.

By 2050, body modification enthusiasts will have printed custom body augmentations through 3D printing technology. ( 89% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-31; known on 2050-01-01.

I will have read "Freakonomics” by February 5, 2012. ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-01-30; known on 2012-02-05; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-02-04.

Diabetes cured by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

Jeff will defriend me on Facebook sometime in the next three days. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 16 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-01-29; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-09.

“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 21 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

gwern will have a fulltime non-contractor with-benefits jobs at SIAI within 3 months —shminux ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known 21 days ago; judged wrong by gwern 21 days ago.

I will watch all 75 episodes of Hikaru no Go before 2013. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-29; known on 2013-01-01.

My nausea will end within 30 minutes of taking 520mg of activated charcoal. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-29; known on 2012-01-29; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-29.

Federal investigation of Chris Dodd and/or the MPAA for bribery before the end of this year. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01.

Less Wrong will have a “limited-access forum” before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-26; known on 2013-01-01.

PredictionBook will display users’ Brier scores by the end of this year. ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01.

I will ask out the person I currently have a crush on. They will say no. ( 65% confidence; 11 wagers; 15 comments )

Created by Leo on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by Leo on 2012-01-30.

I will complete every tutorial and drill in Chessmaster: Grandmaster Edition before 2013. ( 33% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01.

I will read and complete every exercise within Learn Ruby the Hard Way before July 2012. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-07-01.

HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy ( 35% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did. ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01.

“I predict that I or my team will win (1st place) for the Quantified Health Prize. (70%)” —Kevin ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-02-18.

United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%) —knb ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-02-01.

The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31.

I will obtain a CompTIA Network+ certification before 2013. ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01.

I will obtain a CompTIA A+ certification before 2013. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo 22 days ago.

I will drop out of college. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2014-03-31.

My interpretation of wedrifid’s position is “about right”. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-22; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-22.

Before the end of the year, PredictionBook will offer weighted averages for the community confidence in a prediction, and/or offer an API for others to do so. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-20; known on 2013-01-01.

I will pass the Institute of Actuaries’ entry exam. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-10.

“gigabit wireless connection speeds will be the norm outside the home or office” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

Iran will not successfully test a nuclear weapon in 2012. ( 92% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by smijer on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-12-31.

The bitcoin protocol will have a fatal weakness that is discovered, leading to the crash of the bitcoin economy. End of year prediction. ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by kiba on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-12-30.

Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by RobertLumley on 2012-01-18.

No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

At least three papers with the word “connectomics” in their title or abstract will be published in Nature in 2012. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

Future Cities Development Inc. will found at least one settlement in a special development region in Honduras and it will have a population of equal to or greater than 500 before 2013. ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01.

Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2025 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2025-01-01.

Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2020 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2020-01-01.

HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.

I will be defrauded, stolen from, robbed, burgled, or assaulted during my stay in Mexico City. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.

I will be murdered during my stay in Mexico City. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.

The Less Wrong user calcsam will publicly deconvert from Mormonism before 2015. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2015-01-01.

“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2012-01-06.

Two Open Threads will be posted in the Discussion Section of Less Wrong in the month of January 2012 and the second thread will have at least double the number of posts contained in the first thread before February 2012. ( 33% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01.

The winner of the 2012 US presidential election will have been the candidate that spent more money on the campaign than any other individual candidate. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

Chris Brown will be arrested for assault, domestic violence, or criminal damage before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

A previously unreleased song by Michael Jackson will be released sometime before 2013. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

Dark Knight Rises will be released in 2012 and will obtain Rotten Tomotoes score of at equal to or greater than 50% and equal or less than 85%. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

The mens’ rights movement will be mentioned by name in a Time or Newsweek article sometime during 2012. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

If Obama is re-elected, then a white male will go on a “shooting spree” and the shooter will mention the “political climate” as a motivating factor. If the antecedent proposition is false, then this prediction will be withdrawn. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

Within 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html) ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Morendil on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20.

Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-29; known on 2025-12-29.

PredictionBook’s email notification system will be fixed by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-29.

Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2015. ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-28; known on 2015-01-01.

In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known on 2021-12-24.

“China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Hamas accepts Israel’s right to exist before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Construction of ‘Ground Zero mosque’ to commence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-01.

“King Abdullah to no longer be head of government in Saudi Arabia before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Ali Abdullah Saleh to no longer be President of Yemen before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1800 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Andy Coulson to be charged with any criminal offence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Rebekah Brooks to be charged with any criminal offence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Rupert Murdoch to depart as CEO of News Corp before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

gwern.net referral traffic will average <1000 daily visits in the week a year from now. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-17; known on 2012-12-17.

An alternative to the US-based Domain Name System will be created and it will be used more widely than the US-based system before 2015. ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2015-01-01.

SOPA will become US law and either Youtube or Megaupload will be shutdown. ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01.

Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 ( 75% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by faws on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01.

Dexter season 7: Dexter will intentionally kill Deb ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-12-19.

I will complete Project Euler #5 within the next 7 hours. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-22; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21.

SOPA will pass through congress, and then it will not be vetoed. ( 50% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Grognor on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-10-16.

Justin Bieber will go to rehab sometime within the next 10 years ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-31; known on 2021-03-31.

Duolingo will have over a million users by 2013. ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2013-01-01.

I will run 4 miles in 30 minutes or less before June 2012. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-19; known in 13 days.

I will bench press my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-19; known in 13 days; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-16.

I will squat my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-19; known in 13 days; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-23.

I will deadlift my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-19; known in 13 days; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-23.

If Romney wins the Republican candidacy, then Obama will publicly offer him a bet sometime during the 2012 presidential campaign. This prediction will be withdrawn if the antecedent proposition is false. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-14; known on 2013-01-01.

North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. —Scott Sumner ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-03; known on 2061-01-01.

gwern.net will be up and accessible with content in 2020. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2020-01-01.

France to lose AAA credit rating before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012 —Intrade ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by bobpage on 2012-01-13.

“[Hillary] Clinton will be Obama’s running mate” ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-12-10; known on 2012-09-03.

I will reach 1000 karma on LW (http://lesswrong.com/user/RobertLumley) by June 2nd, the anniversary of my first post on LW. ( 68% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08; known in 14 days; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.

“Christopher Hitchens will publicly confess his sins to God, however he finds Him between now and the time of his passing, and accept Christ as his Lord, Savior and pathway to God. He will do this in a meaningful rather than a flippant, facetious or hyp ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-16.

Between now and 2022, a religion, subsect, or religious movement will be founded and grow to over 10,000 followers that has explicit ties to Judaism/Christianity/Islam, but rejects the omnipotence of God. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2011-12-03; known on 2022-01-01.

Larry King’s brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-12-04; known on 2070-01-01.

James Randi will live to be 93 years old. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2011-12-05; known on 2021-08-07.

I will have rewatched the Evangelion movies by the end of this year. ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 16% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-12-08; known on 2019-12-08.

Bryan Caplan, or a co-blogger, will write a post on EconLog defending his use of the term “real world” to refer to non-academia in the next two weeks. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-14; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-12-15.

lukeprog will make >2 predictions on PB during 2012. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2013-01-01.

I will have read “Predictably Irrational” by December 4, 2011. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-12-03; known on 2011-12-04; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-12-09.

Greece Will be Bankrupt within 6 months from today ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by niekjetten on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-01.

I will finish Seneca 84 tonight ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Codyz on 2011-11-28; known on 2011-11-29; judged wrong by Codyz on 2011-11-28.

I will finish the 3rd book of Roman Slavery (articles) tonight ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Codyz on 2011-11-28; known on 2011-11-29; judged right by Codyz on 2011-11-28.

Egypt will go throw another war with Isreal ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by ahmedwael on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-10; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-10.

Before December Roland will not make any bet with me over any 9/11 truth related claims and will not give estimates on PB for any of the related statements already added to PB ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-01.

The USG will ratify the Trans Pacific Partnership before 2015. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-28; known on 2015-01-01.

“Newt Gingrich to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012.” -Intrade ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-28; known on 2012-12-31.

At least one current member will drop out of the Euro. ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by faws on 2011-12-17.

Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States. He will win the Republican nomination and win the general election in 2012. ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by capcuervo on 2011-11-26; known on 2012-11-07.

I will be able to complete 100 good-form push ups in 6 weeks’ time following the program at hundredpushups.com. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-04; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.

My guinea pig will learn to move in a circle on command in 2 months time. ( 38% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.

I will have “mind-fog” when I wake up in 8 hours. ( 49% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-21; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-22.

Obama gets reelected and during that time Hillary Clinton brokers the middle east peace deal between Israel and Palestine for the two state solution. This secures her presidency in 2016. ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by lionflower on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-09-09.

“3D printing” will be a multi-billion dollar industry by 2021. ( 71% confidence; 14 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2021-01-01.

“Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.” -lukeprog ( 60% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20; known on 2150-01-01.

PredictionBook will be modified sometime before January 10, 2012 months to have some form of moderation. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-01-10.

Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-25; known on 2039-08-25.

the sun will rise in the west and sets in the east ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by dr_freezy on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-11-17; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-17.

Harbinger1 will be generally accepted to be a troll by the PB community ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-20.

Harbinger1 is a genuine user but unfamiliar with LessWrong tropes ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-17; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-20.

The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant. ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2065-12-01.

Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-01.

With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2023-07-29.

The worlds first “truely” cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-02-27.

The United States, Canada, and Mexico will form the North American Union in August 2020. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2020-08-30.

“New Zealand to be in recession in December 2011 quarter” -ipredict ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2012-02-22; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-29.

“Lindsay Lohan will be dead within 2 years.” ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2013-11-16.

A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01.

The oldest living person on 2020-01-01 will be at least 130 years old. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2020-01-01.

The SCOTUS ruling on the Obama administration’s health care reform law will be a 5-4 decision. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-07-01.

At least one presidential debate of 2012 will include a question about “anti-capitalism”. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-07.

Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be 100%. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-01-01.

The British High Court will rule in favor of the journal Nature in the libel case brought against it by Professor Mohamed El Naschie. ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Jason on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-06-30.

Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.

Pace will defeat Torres at UFC 139. ( 51% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

I have a driver’s license within a year ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by fnedrik on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-11-15.

The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.

Tibau will defeat dos Anjos at UFC 139. ( 51% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

Le will defeat Silva at UFC 139. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

Rua will defeat Henderson at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

McDonald will defeat Soto at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

Weidman will defeat Lawlor at UFC 139. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

Kampmann will defeat Story at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

Faber will defeat Bowles at UFC 139. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

Brown will defeat Baczynski at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

Bonnar will defeat Kingsbury at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

Bailey will defeat Castillo at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

Bader will defeat Brilz at UFC 139. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 79% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by the end of this year. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-17.

I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by the end of this month. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-17.

I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by 18th November. ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-11; known on 2011-11-18; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-17.

I will join the military before 2015. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2015-01-01.

The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged unknown by Houshalter on 2010-06-26.

I will brainstorm ideas for anything for the first 5-10 minutes after I wake up in the mornings, and record them all. I will do this every day for at least 1 month. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by divad12 on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-15; judged right by divad12 on 2012-01-07.

The personal use of cannabis will be de jure legalized in at least one U.S state by 2020. ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-13; known on 2020-01-01.

Ron Paul will be dead by 2017. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2017-01-01.

I will continue using PredictionBook at least once a month until 2015. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2015-01-01.

I will complete all of the chapter 5 exercises in Introduction to JAVA Programming by 2011-12-03. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-06.

I will complete all of the chapter 4 exercises in Introduction to JAVA Programming by 2011-11-26. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-26; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-06.

I will complete all of the chapter 3 exercises in Introduction to JAVA Programming by 2011-11-19. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

“Sometime in the next five years, there will be a terroristic attack in or near Las Vegas.” -David Henderson ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14; known on 2016-11-14.

At least one self-described “anarchist” will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2021-01-01.

30 new speaker invitations for Singularity Summit 2012 will be written by the end of Monday, Nov. 14th. ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by lukeprog on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-15; judged right by lukeprog on 2011-11-15.

At least two first-term Republican congressmen/congresswomen elected in 2010 will be defeated by their Democratic rivals in 2012. ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-08.

cousin_it will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

Wei Dai will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

Anna Salamon will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

wedrifid will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-31.

Phil Goetz will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-03-25.

“Carry-on luggage on US airlines will be reduced to a single handbag that inspectors can search thoroughly, in 2010 or 2011.” —Phil Goetz ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-01.

Alicorn will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

Yvain will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

DaMarques Johnson will defeat Clay Harvison in their fight on November, 12th. ( 76% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.

Ricardo Lamas will defeat Cub Swanson in their fight on November, 12th. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.

Dustin Poirier will defeat Pablo Garza in their fight on November, 12th. ( 76% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.

Ben Henderson will defeat Clay Guida in their fight on November, 12th. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.

Cain Velasquez will defeat Junior Dos Santos in their fight on November, 12th. ( 62% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.

I will like the second season of Top Shot more than the first. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-15.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

Luke Muehlhauser will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by bobpage on 2011-11-12.

Raymond Kurzweil will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

Eliezer Yudkowsky will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

Robin Hanson will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

Occupy Wall Street (NYC) will continue at least 30 more days. ( 80% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by torekp on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-23.

In 2020, every single one of the 5 tallest buildings in the world will be located in China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01.

The prediction market intrade will still be open for business in 2020. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01.

I will complete every exercise in the first 10 chapters of Introduction to Java Programming by Y. Daniel Liang before the end of March, 30th, 2012. ( 65% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-05.

“Rupert Murdoch to announce departure as chairman of News Corporation before 2012” -ipredict ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

I will obtain Portuguese citizenship before 2015. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2015-01-01.

The unemployment rate in Singapore will not exceed 5% in 2012. ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

Stewart Alexis Alexander, of the Socialist Party USA, will receive less than 1% of the popular vote in the 2012 presidential election. ( 92% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07.

If Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate in the 2012 presidential election, then he will receive greater than 10% of the popular vote. ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07.

‘Will Palin, Trump, Bloomberg, Paul or Bachmann run as an Independent or 3rd party candidate?’ —Intrade ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-09; known on 2012-11-02.

I will do at least 70 Anki reps/day on average this month. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-01.

The weekly newspaper The Economist will be in continuous publication until at least 2043. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2043-01-01.

Greece will quit euro ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sucrenoir on 2011-11-04; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-19.

“Silvio Berlusconi to announce his resignation before midnight ET 30 Nov 2011” —Intrade ( 67% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12.

An official 2.0 release of the Ruby language will be available on or before February 24, 2013. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Morendil on 2011-11-07; known on 2013-02-24.

“By the year 2020 solar electricity will be as cheap or cheaper than that produced by fossil fuels.” ( 68% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01.

Obama’s approval rating will fall below 23% during 2011. —Capital Commentary ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.

Wikileaks will continue to exist as an organization through 2011. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“For all practical purposes, the Mexican state won’t survive to see 2012.” —Jeff Vail ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

As of 01-01-2013, according to the CIA World Factbook, none of the top 5 GDP per capita (PPP) countries will contain the word “democracy” or “democratic” in their government type variable. ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01.

I will obtain a PS3 on or before 6/8/2012. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known in 20 days; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08.

I will schedule an appointment to visit a doctor by the end of this week. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2011-11-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14.

If I play Deus Ex 3 in 2012, then I will rate it higher than Deus Ex 2. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01.

If I play Deus Ex 3 in 2012, then I will rate it higher than Deus Ex 1. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01.

The “technological singularity” will be a major paradigm shift for humanity. ( 83% confidence; 8 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by steve1interstock on 2011-11-02; known on 2111-11-02; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-05.

Initial shipments (0-30 days after launch day) of iPhone 5 will not have a model with over 512 MB RAM ( 54% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-03-21; known on 2012-07-30.

“NZ Government to announce before 2012 it will waive visitor visa requirement for China passport holders” -ipredict ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-06.

“NZ Government to announce before 2012 it will waive visitor visa requirement for India passport holders” -ipredict ( 2% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-29.

“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31.

“The Google Lunar X Prize to be won on/before 31 Dec 2012.” -intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01.

23andMe will offer >=550k SNP genotyping for <=$100 during 2014. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2014-12-31.

“Global temperatures in 2012 to be highest recorded.” -ipredict ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01.

“BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

The US Democratic Party fragments before the 2016 primary season. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2011-08-03; known on 2016-01-16.

gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC) ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 89% confidence; 21 wagers )

Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07.

The average of this bet will be 90% to 100% until friday. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-05.

I will be using PredictionBook for personal productivity goals at least weekly for a month. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-11-24.

President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 33% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged unknown by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-04.

Evidence of extraterrestrial life will be discovered by 2017. ( 11% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2017-01-01.

‘I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent’ —Steven Pinker ( 52% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-03; known on 2022-01-01.

My Introduction to Java deck will be the most downloaded Anki deck containing the word “Java” on 03-01-2012. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-03-03.

GRRM dies before finishing A Song of Ice and Fire ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2040-01-01.

LW: average IQ in survey will be at or above the 98th percentile and thus eligible for Mensa membership. ( 67% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-11-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.

Non-Japanese customers will be allowed to buy e-books in the Japanese Kindle store. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2014-01-01.

I will complete Project Euler Problem #2 within the next 14 days. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-31; known on 2011-11-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14.

I will play through the original Deus Ex again before 2013. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01.

I will have completed my Introduction to Java Anki Deck and will have uploaded it by the end of this week. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-31; known on 2011-11-05; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-01.

“Dell’s cheapest computer costs $379 (with a monitor) … in another five years, computers will be one-fourth their current price.” —Jakob Nielsen ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-11-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-20.

I will play through the original Deus Ex again before 2013 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01.

I will read “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman within the next 4 weeks. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-27.

I will average at least one prediction per week on PredictionBook for the next year. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-28; known on 2012-10-28.

lukeprog will cease regularly using modafinil more than 3 times a week or will report tolerance ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-28; known on 2012-10-28.

“Image recorded by NASA Curiosity on Mars surface to be published in 2012” -ipredict ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27; known on 2013-01-01.

“Lamborghini to announce, before 2013, commercial production of a four door vehicle” -ipredict ( 82% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27; known on 2013-01-01.

I will write a blog post on Khan Academy’s new proficiency model that I just shipped by the end of this weekend. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-27; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by divad12 on 2011-11-01.

There will be at least one major outbreak of violence during the Occupy Wall Street protest. ( 45% confidence; 12 wagers; 15 comments )

Created by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-11; judged wrong by Noetic Jun on 2011-11-11.

Erik and I will watch the original version of The Thing today. ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-10-27; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27.

“Focus Fusion process to generate net power before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2014” -intrade ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2015-01-01.

I will eat the first and last meals of the day at home on October 26, 2011 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-10-27; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-31.

“iPad 3 to be formally announced in January 2012” -ipredict ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-02-01.

“Yingluck Shinawatra to depart as Prime Minister of Thailand before 1 January 2012” -ipredict ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

“Normal service on the Maui Pipeline to resume on 28 October 2011” -ipredict ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-10-29; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-31.

Steve Jobs’ brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-10-21; known on 2070-01-01.

Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 ( 21% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Porejide on 2011-08-25.

By October 24, 2012 brazil84 will update his estimate that Amanda Knox was guilty to below 50% and declare that he has so updated on Less Wrong. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-25; known on 2012-10-24.

In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Konkvistador on 2011-10-24; known on 2039-01-01.

I will be able to earn a reliable living off writing and possible start-ups that I’m involved in by the end of 2013. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2014-01-01.

Before 2012, the United States will lose its triple-A credit rating from Moody’s or Fitch (or both) ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-10-23; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-01.

The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 72% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01.

My average weight (measured once everyday) for this week will be at least one pound greater than my average weight for next week. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-29; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-29.

“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.” ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

Someone will add at least 400 Austrian macroeconomic predictions to predictionbook. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by siodine on 2011-10-20; known on 2011-10-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-21.

No human fatalities will result from the ROSAT reentry. ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.

At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other. ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-10-19; known on 2100-01-01.

I will obtain at least one Java certification before the end of June, 30th, 2012. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-06-30.

The discussion post http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/842/the_sciencearchist_manifesto/’s comment section will contain a flame war started by someone other than myself by the end of this Friday ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-10-21; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2011-10-27.

GJP: the Saudi monarchy continue to rule Saudi Arabia as of March 1, 2012 ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-03-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-03-01.

I will “flatline”, i.e. my penis will temporary not respond to sexual stimuli due to prolonged abstinence. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-18; known on 2011-10-23; judged wrong by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20.

Anderson Cooper will come out on his daytime talk show. ( 24% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-01.

I will complete Project Euler Problem #1 in the next 7 days. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-10-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-20.

In 7 days I will have a total of 230 problems done in Chess Tempo (http://chesstempo.com/chess-statistics/jpulgarin) ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-16; known on 2011-10-23; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-23.

“Ron Paul to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012” -Intrade ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known on 2012-02-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-06.

Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2019 ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2019-01-01.

The U.S. economy will not be back to 6% or less unemployment until 2018. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by maverickmath on 2011-10-18; known on 2018-12-31.

Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 ( 35% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2025-01-01.

“The Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of the 2011 New Zealand General Election was an electorate candidate for the National Party in that election and/or appears on that party’s list.” -ipredict ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-17; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by faws on 2012-02-01.

I will have added 40 cards to my Anki deck in 7 days. (Currentlly at 125). ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-16; known on 2011-10-23; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-23.

I will go to the gym tomorrow ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-18; judged wrong by isaacn16 on 2011-10-18.

“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

The judge will rule that Julian Assange be extradited to Sweden after hearings in July. ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-07; known on 2011-10-01; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-02.

The initial release of Windows Server 8 (or whatever it’s renamed to) will ship with a filesystem that writes and verifies checksums for data integrity purposes ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-10-12; known on 2012-12-01.

Chrome will ship with the initial release of Android “Ice Cream Sandwich” ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2011-12-01.

I will feel sick again when I donate blood today. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-13; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-13.

“. The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.” —Dan King ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2021-01-01.

I will have completed a Master of Science degree in Computer Science by the end of 2013. ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2014-01-01.

“No American Soap Operas by 2015” —Ken ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2015-01-01.

The PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 2 years. ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.

The PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 1 year. ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.

Average global temperature will be higher for 2012 than 2011. ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-01-01.

Average global temperature will be higher for 2011 than 2010. ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.

“S&P will announce before 1 July 2013 a downgrade of its France sovereign rating.” ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-07-01.

The Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be deleted within a month. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-11; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-10-12.

The Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be tagged for deletion or deleted within 2 weeks. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.

“Kevin Rudd will depart as Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs before 1 July 2012.” ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-07-01.

The St Louis Cardinals will win the World Series ( 47% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Codyz on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-29.

A PredictionBook Wikipedia page will be created within the next 30 minutes. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11.

Eliezer Yudkowsky’s book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04.

Yahoo will sell its Chinese assets in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

LW: Goetz’s mugging post will be <= -7 in 1 month. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-04.

“About 85% of the oldest-lived companies listed have websites. I bet the ones that will fail in the next 5 years will be in the 15% that don’t have a website in 2008.” —Kevin Kelly ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-08; known on 2013-06-13.

Apple smartphones will have under 30% US market share at the end of 2012 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-12-31.

Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060 ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.

Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.

‘Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history’ ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10.

In the Ontario (Canada) legislature, the Liberal minority will form the government, and as of 2012-12-21, they will still have the confidence of the House. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-21.

By november 8th, I will have submitted a (new) graduate school application. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by maverickmath on 2011-10-09; known on 2011-11-08; judged wrong by maverickmath on 2011-11-05.

No one will join this prediction until friday. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Metus on 2011-10-10; known on 2011-10-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11.

Consensus will be that Koomey’s Law no longer applies in 25 years. ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-10; known on 2036-10-10.

The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 100% confidence; 41 wagers; 20 comments )

Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-11-06.

The GDP per capita (PPP) of Hong Kong (judged by the IMF) will exceed that of the USA before 2013. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-31.

“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.” ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2100-01-01.

‘We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months.’ —Jason Calacanis ( 50% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-16; known on 2012-11-15; judged unknown by Houshalter on 2011-05-17.

Robin Hanson’s brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 42% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.

No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 83% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by bobpage on 2011-10-02.

By 2020, one of Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, George W. Bush, Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton, Richard Myers, or Peter Pace will state he had advanced knowledge of the 9/11 attacks or helped plan those attacks. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01.

‘Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%’ —taw ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2021-01-01.

‘Continuing riots in major European cities over the imposition of austerity measures: 80%.’ —Skatche ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01.

‘Conrad Murray to be found guilty of involuntary manslaughter’ [of Michael Jackson] ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-08.

‘I predict…a major earthquake, magnitude seven or more will happen within twenty kilometers of a line from nagano city, nagano to matsudo, chiba’ ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.

“Music CDs compatible with current (2002) CD players will still be sold regularly in 2015.” ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01.

“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10.

“Everything goes very multi-core, even your cell phone.” by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01.

“Polygamy is granted legal status in the US.” ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01.

‘Amazon builds its first bricks-and-mortar superstore.’ ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01.

“Within ten years there will be another $200 billion+ Wall Street Bailout” —James Miller ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01.

“By 2012 scientists will not have developed an explanation for how images on the Shroud of Turin came to be on the cloth -an explanation that satisfies all of the physical and chemical properties of the images and does not violate basic laws of physics.” ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2012-01-01.

The US Federal Reserve is not audited by the US government in 2011. —Kevin ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

‘Cosmetic surgery has doubled its market size’ (in 2017 compared to 2010) ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01.

“Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.” ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2203-01-01.

this will be the most popular prediction EVER ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Glenn on 2008-08-02; known on 3008-08-02; judged wrong by Grognor 2 days ago.

“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.” ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2025-01-01.

Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 3009-10-17.

Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared. —Ray Kurzweil ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01.

‘As for [Korean] reunification, I see it in the next five years.’ —B.R. Myers ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-26; known on 2016-02-23.

Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )

Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 94% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Morendil on 2011-11-03.

Harold Camping: “the whole world…will be annihilated together with the whole physical world” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-10-22.

A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10.

Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 6% confidence; 17 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-10.

Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 47% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.

“I predict that by 2020 Nike will be the only remaining sneaker company” —Whutsiznaim ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01.

the Occupy Wall Street protest will begin suffering from communicable diseases and this cause the authorities to crack down and remove them all. ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.

There will be no noticeable disruption of financial services offered by the New York Stock Exchange on October 10th. ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Gedusa on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11.

“the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.

‘At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity. For purposes of this prediction “megachurch” means a church with regular attendance of 3000 people at Sunday services.’ —JoshuaZ ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

EU to dissolve by 2040. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2040-01-01.

“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2030-01-01.

“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.” ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.

“Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30.

“You will hear nothing about Google+ a year from now.” – Eliezer Yudkowsky (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2722976) ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Boxo on 2011-07-03; known on 2012-07-03.

“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 13% confidence; 15 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08.

Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election. ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by maverickmath on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-11-07; judged unknown by JRMayne on 2011-10-11.

Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will be inaugurated as President of Russia in 2012. ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-31.

‘Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year’ ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged unknown by Swimmy on 2011-10-19.