Most recent predictions by Jayson Virissimo

• Conditional on getting a vasectomy in 2016, I will regret the operation by the start of 2027 ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by btrettel 21 days ago; known on 2027-01-01.

• Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 31 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01.

• Jeb Bush to be the 2016 Republican nominee. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-17; known on 2016-07-29.

• ISIS will continue to exist through the end of 2015. ( 97% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01.

• ISIS will control less territory at the end of 2015 than it does right now. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01.

• Syria’s civil war will not end before 2016. ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01.

• Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state for the remainder of 2015. ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01.

• Assad will remain President of Syria for the remainder of 2015. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01.

• No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people before 2016. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01.

• Ebola will kill fewer people in second half of 2015 than the in first half. ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01.

• Neither Russia nor Qatar will lose their World Cups before 2016. ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01.

• Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro before 2016. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01.

• North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt before 2016. ( 89% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01.

• US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers before 2016. ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01.

• By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2025-01-01.

• Antibiotics to become useless within 10 years. —Tim Walsh ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2020-08-13.

• Stephen Harper will be elected Prime Minister of Canada in 2015. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-08; known on 2016-01-01.

• PRI win the largest number of seats in the June legislative elections in Mexico. ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-08; known 23 days ago; judged right by kuudes 24 days ago.

• Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the US presidential election by March 17th, 2016, and Martin O'Malley to be the Democratic nominee. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-23; known on 2016-03-17.

• I will get attacked on Tera while leveling because people are cunts. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Moobile on 2015-05-11; known on 2015-05-12; judged right by Moobile on 2015-05-12.

• Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 13 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29.

• Floyd Mayweather will defeat Manny Pacquiao. ( 55% confidence )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by btrettel on 2015-05-03.

• Hillary Clinton will not become the next president of the USA ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by truerepublican on 2014-10-18; known on 2016-11-09.

• By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-24; known on 2030-01-01.

• I will get hired as a full employee (non-contractor) by a software company within a week from now. ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-05-02.

• TrikeApps will merge my PredictionBook API pull request within a week. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-28.

• Rand Paul to win the Republican party nomination for President. ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-08; known on 2016-07-22.

• Obama signs executive order legalizing marijuana on the last day of his presidency. ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by RESO on 2015-02-05; known on 2017-01-20; judged unknown by asd on 2015-02-19.

• Greece will cease to be on the Euro by 2018. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-02-11; known on 2018-01-01.

• Greece, will still have the Euro at the end of 2016 ( 62% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2017-01-01.

• I will be working as a software developer before 03/17/2015. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-15.

• My PredictionBook clone will have basic functionality (create predictions, assign probabilities, make judgments, and a tutorial showing how to do each) before 12/15/2014. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-12-01; known on 2014-12-15; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-12-04.

• I will be working as a software developer before 07/01/2015. ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-11-17; known 23 days ago; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-20.

• We will have permanent off-Earth colonies by 2020 ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-04; known on 2020-01-16.

• The Republicans will repeal the ACA by November 2015. *I'm going to withdraw this prediction as I wasn't thinking that the Republicans do not hold enough seats to override a presidential veto. ( 26% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by ren on 2014-11-11; known on 2015-11-08.

• I won't convert to Christianity within the next year ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-08; known on 2015-10-16.

• Microsoft will start selling Windows 9 by the end of 2014. ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2015-01-01.

• I won't post, comment, or tweet on Facebook or Twitter between October 6th and the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-10-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-01.

• Venezuela will undergo sovereign default before 2016. ( 29% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-09-19; known on 2016-01-01.

• Scotland will vote in favour of independence in the 2014 referendum ( 28% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.

• Scotland votes 'yes' for independence. ( 38% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by lettergram on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.

• Scotland will vote NO on independence. ( 74% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-09-19; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.

• Assange leaves the embassy within a year. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known in 26 days.

• Luke turns, or has turned, to the Dark Side in Star Wars episode 7. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2014-07-20; known on 2015-12-18.

• some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-21; known on 2024-07-21.

• Bitcoin will be traded for >$1000 within 2014 ( 38% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by qznc on 2014-07-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2015-01-01.

• Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 18% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.

• The Kingdom of North Sudan will be officially recognized by the African Union before 2015. ( 1% confidence )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-13; known on 2015-01-01.

• Germany will defeat Argentina in their World Cup game today. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-13; known on 2014-07-14; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-13.

• I will not watch any of The Americans until July 26 2014 ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2014-07-12; known on 2014-07-26; judged right by bobpage on 2014-07-26.

• Bryan Caplan will win his bet on climate statistics with Yoram Bauman. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12; known on 2030-01-01.

• I will get a tax refund this year ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by mad on 2014-07-08; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-07-29.

• waveman will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 3Q 2014. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12; known on 2014-10-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2014-10-01.

• I will pass health class. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by cobalt on 2014-05-13; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by cobalt on 2014-07-08.

• Martin Schulz will be the next president of the european commision. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by nyabhingi on 2014-05-12; known on 2014-06-30; judged wrong by nyabhingi on 2014-06-30.

• UTS will be one of the first 100 universities in the world by 2014. ( 26% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2014-06-30; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-09-09.

• My PredictionBook score will be higher than the then current site average in one month ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Matt on 2014-05-29; known on 2014-07-06.

• My PredictionBook score will be higher than the current disappointing 1.09 in one month ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2014-05-29; known on 2014-07-06.

• I will get an A in health for the year. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by cobalt on 2014-05-17; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by cobalt on 2014-07-08.

• I will live through the end of sophomore year. ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by cobalt on 2014-05-31; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-30.

• Bush will commit suicide by the next 3 years. ( 4% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2014-08-09; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-08-09.

• “no matter how many scare headlines you read, ISIS will never take Baghdad” – The war nerd. ( 77% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-18; known on 2016-01-01.

• I will get an a or a- in government for the quarter ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by cobalt on 2014-06-06; known on 2014-07-06; judged wrong by cobalt on 2014-06-30.

• I will lose at least 18lbs in the six months after starting the Shangri-La Diet, and maintain the diet for that duration, defined as taking at least 100kcal of near-tasteless calories on at least an average of four days each week. ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by jbeshir on 2014-06-14; known on 2014-12-14; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2015-02-28.

• By the end of 2015, at least one service will offer genome sequencing for less than $100. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by player_03 on 2014-05-19; known on 2016-01-01.

• Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. ( 19% confidence; 18 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by lavalamp on 2013-06-27; known on 2035-12-31.

• LinkedIn will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Mathieu_Roy on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.

• The majority of public schools in Arizona will not require students to utilize spaced repetition software at any point within the next 10 years. ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-25; known on 2024-04-25.

• Within five years, Pope Francis (or a successor) makes a comment in an official or unofficial capacity that there is no literal hell. ( 11% confidence; 16 wagers )

  Created by adbge on 2014-01-07; known on 2019-01-07.

• I will get accepted to App Academy before 2015. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-05-15.

• I will be able to do 12 full range pull-ups with hands at shoulder width by mid 2014. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by waveman on 2014-04-20.

• An (other) astronomical object with a diameter bigger than Mercury will be discover in the Solar System before 2050. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Mathieu_Roy on 2014-04-01; known on 2050-01-01.

• The PLQ will win the April 2014 Quebec elections. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Mathieu_Roy on 2014-03-28; known on 2014-04-08; judged right by Mathieu_Roy on 2014-04-09.

• David Brin will respond to my comment on his Goodreads blogs within 7 days. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-02; known on 2014-04-09; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-14.

• The NYT, WSJ, or The Economist will run an article claiming that Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 has been found (intact or not) before 2015. ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-03-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by mad on 2015-01-03.

• The Newsweek reporter will be fired within a year. ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2014-03-07; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-07.

• I will leave my italian duolingo streak unbroken until at least January 1st, 2015 ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by mad on 2014-01-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mad on 2015-01-01.

• Dorian S. Nakamoto is the Satoshi Nakamoto. (Nobody will prove / find really compelling evidence as to why Dorian is not Satoshi in 2014) ( 31% confidence; 27 wagers; 20 comments )

  Created by Tenoke on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2015-01-01.

• Elder Scrolls Online will sell over 10 million copies within a year of release (across all platforms), becoming the worlds largest MMORPG ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by lettergram on 2014-02-09; known on 2015-04-04; judged wrong by jasticE on 2015-04-19.

• MIRI will continue operating in end of 2014. ( 92% confidence; 10 wagers )

  Created by MTGandP on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by bobpage on 2015-01-01.

• In 2014, there is a mass shooting in USA killing > 10 people. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by MTGandP on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2015-01-01.

• By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 61% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.

• US government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by MTGandP on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by bobpage on 2015-01-01.

• “the entire north polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years.” —Al Gore ( 12% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-04-01.

• 2014 Less Wrong Survey will have < 20% female. ( 89% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by MTGandP on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mad on 2015-01-06.

• HP MoR: At some point, Harry (or someone) will break a time-turner to get out of a sticky situation. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by 75th on 2014-01-29; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

• Princeton researchers: Facebook will lose 80% of its users by end of 2017 ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-01-23.

• 2014: No one will win $1billion from Warren Buffett by submitting a perfect NCAA pool ( 99% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-03-27.

• Google will include Bitcoin in the list of currencies that you can automatically convert through the search bar in 2014. ( 39% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Tenoke on 2014-01-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by adbge on 2014-07-30.

• Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 20 wagers; 19 comments )

  Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.

• I will get an 'A' or better in PHI 313: Probability, Evidence, and Decision. ( 75% confidence )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-06-02; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-05-14.

• Snowden will be granted an official pardon by Barack Obama by January 2015. ( 5% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by entropy on 2014-01-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by ciil on 2015-01-01.

• I will read 12 books before 2015. ( 86% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-29.

• I will complete the Spanish skill tree on Duolingo before 2015. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-08.

• I will earn the compostela by walking the Way of Saint James before 2015. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-08.

• Dogecoin will be worth less than 40 Satoshis ($0.00036240) at June 2014. (At 3 Jan 2014 bitcoin prices) ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Tuxedage on 2014-01-03; known on 2014-06-17; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-06-17.

• Bitcoin hits $10000 at some point during 2014 (top exchange on http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/currency/USD.html) ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by notsonewuser on 2014-01-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.

• A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.

• Takers of the LW survey/census will respond as left-handed more often than the base rate ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2013-11-27; known on 2014-01-12; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-01-19.

• A virtual reality headset (Oculus Rift-esque) sells more than a million units within the next 5 years. ( 85% confidence; 18 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by adbge on 2013-12-26; known on 2018-12-26.