Most recent predictions by faul_sname

• If Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate in the 2012 presidential election, then he will receive greater than 10% of the popular vote. ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29.

• the Occupy Wall Street protest will begin suffering from communicable diseases and this cause the authorities to crack down and remove them all. ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.

• Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.

• 3-D is just a fad: “It's happened before and it will happen again: At some point soon, 3-D cinema will regain its well-earned status as a sublime and ridiculous headache.” ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-04.

• Obama's approval rating will fall below 23% during 2011. —Capital Commentary ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts. —Gerald Celente ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• There will be an earthquake in California that results in at least 1000 human deaths before 2012. ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• In about a year this website will have more then 20 active participants per week. ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-02.

• Greece will default on its debt before 2011-09-01 00:00 UTC ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-06-19; known on 2011-09-02; judged wrong by bobpage on 2011-09-02.

• Global circumnavigation by solar aircraft ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2015-01-01.

• I will not live to see the apocalypse. ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Sevis on 2011-06-01; known on 2111-06-01.

• Barack Obama will win reelection. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by TheHumanite on 2011-06-06; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.

• Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.

• the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. —S. Jay Olshansky ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-29; known on 2100-01-01.

• Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-09; known on 2050-01-01.

• 90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 42% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.

• 50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 17% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.

• 10% chance of AI by 2018 —Shane Legg ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2018-01-01.

• “Polygamy is granted legal status in the US.” ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01.

• Greece Will be Bankrupt within 6 months from today ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by niekjetten on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-01.