Predictions by JoshuaZ

• “I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ about 16 hours ago; known on 2030-01-01.

• Batman the Dark Knight Rises will do worse than expected (4wk gross < 415m on HSX) ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by RandomThinker 5 days ago; known on 2012-08-31.

• Eduardo Saverin will un-renounce or try to regain his US citizenship sometime in his life ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker 6 days ago; known on 2072-12-31.

• I will still be alive in 2078. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo 8 days ago; known on 2078-01-01.

• I will die by non-suicide means by the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Grognor 10 days ago; known on 2012-12-31.

• Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker 11 days ago; known on 2018-12-31.

• Japan will restart nuclear reactors before end of 2020 ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker 14 days ago; known on 2020-12-31.

• At most 1 of the NYT profiled hot startups (Pinterest, Path, Pinwheel, Taskrabbit, Dropbox, Square, Quora, Uber, Airtime) will be acquired before the end of 2013. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker 13 days ago; known on 2013-12-31.

• Hugo Chavez dies in the year 2012 ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-12-31.

• Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern 18 days ago; known on 2022-05-01.

• Looking back from 2016, people will say that Microsoft “got” social networking better than Google. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker 18 days ago; known on 2016-12-31.

• HP MoR: Quirrel believes that Harry’s stone is the Resurrection Stone ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• Marijuana will be legal by 2025 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-08; known on 2025-01-01.

• Santorum won’t be a top 3 candidate in 2016 republican primary (measured by returns in South Carolina primary) ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-11; known on 2016-02-15.

• The Dictator (movie with Sasha Baren Cohen) will do better than expected (measured by 4 wk US gross > $68m now on HSX) ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-06-30.

• HP MoR: Severus Snape will go back to the dark side, such as working for Voldemort ( 37% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: the original Quirrel killed his parents ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• “I predict Google will be the biggest and most important company in the world in 5-8 years.” —Jason Kottke ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2017-08-07.

• Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.

• United States will invade Australia and take over ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2020-12-31.

• “We will find life on Mars within ‘the next decade’, and discover a ‘ubiquitous’ bacterial ecosystem.” —Peter Diamandis ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2021-01-01.

• ‘Sweden becomes the first oil-free country’ by 2021 ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01.

• 3D technologies (like 3D TV channels) will become widespread by the year 2013. Football matches will be screened in 3D as well. ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Selector 23 days ago; known on 2013-01-31.

• “United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-21.

• “Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31.

• Planetary Resources won’t be mining asteroids by 2020 ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker 24 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

• “By 2020 a completely propellantless (no material particles expelled for propulsion) or “field propulsion-type” aerospace vehicle will land on the Moon.” ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01.

• “By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.” ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-01-01.

• “By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth…” ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2050-01-01.

• “By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.” ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2025-01-01.

• “Immortal mice by 2015” ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01.

• By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-04-08; known on 2051-01-01.

• Surgeries for 95% of the worlds medical problems will be drastically cost-reduced and available by 2028. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2028-12-27.

• HP MoR: 5 Voldemort Horcruxes are where Harry suggested putting hidden things in ch46 ( 61% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• Replication of the buckyball life extension research will show <25% longevity gains. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern 28 days ago; known on 2018-04-22.

• HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 81% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-18; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be Sir Not Appearing In This Fanfic ( 88% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Dumbledore possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 85% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Bacon’s diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel when he killed Rita Skeeter ( 8% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Bacon’s diary is a Horcrux ( 39% confidence; 9 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Ravenclaw and Slytherin will both win the House Cup, because Hogwarts rules are unclear whether house points earned by students that have left Hogwarts should be counted. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by ArisKatsaris on 2012-04-18; known on 2014-01-01.

• Determining if a knot is unknotted will be shown to be unconditionally in NP intersect co-NP by 2035. ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-04-17; known on 2035-01-01.

• George Zimmerman will be convicted of murder or manslaughter for the shooting of Trayvon Martin before 2015. ( 44% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: The intermittent glitch in the Marauder’s Map is the appearance of a marked Riddle or Voldemort on the map in places without people ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-12; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: A Deathly Hallow besides the Cloak will appear in the possession of a character in the present-day at some point ( 92% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter ( 79% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Polyjuice Potion to submit the hoax article under Rita Skeeter’s name ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Muggle technology to forge the documents ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they magically modified the memory of the witnesses Rita relied on to write the article ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: ch 85 (or sooner): Headmaster would allow Harry to exploit vulnerabilities of the magic Britain’s economics to get out of debt (to Malfoy for his Hermione’s “purchase”). ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known in 22 days; judged wrong by HonoreDB 26 days ago.

• HPMoR : ch 90 (or sooner): Harry would have to exploit the Dementor/Patronum valnerability to gain the Dark/Light Lordship. ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-08-19.

• HPMoR : ch 120 (or sooner): After understanding the death’s place in evolution of life and mind, Harry would refuse become a Creator of the Words. ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 14 comments )

  Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-05-06.

• SpaceX sends a passenger flight to Mars by 2023. ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-22; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MOR Ch81 Harry’s solution is to use the time turner to go back in time and frame Lord Jugson for doing it by tampering with His/Hermoines/Dracos wands and false memory charming a student. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Pringlescan4 on 2012-03-27; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be invoking Lucius’s debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser ( 35% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be invoke the Imperius-debts of other Wizengamot members ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be make Dumbledore turn himself in to Lucius in exchange for Hermione’s freedom ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will involve destroying one of the Dementors ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch 81: Harry’s solution will be to set his hair on fire and run around in circles, screaming. ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be using the Time-turner to alter Hermione’s testimony to something easily falsifiable ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be using the Time-turner to smuggle Hermione out under the Cloak ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: Harry will confess to having arranged the attempted murder of Malfoy. ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: Nobody in the LW discussion thread will predict Harry’s actual attempted solution (regardless of whether it fails). ( 26% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be ask for a trial by combat ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• “USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Mar 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-31.

• HP MoR: Humans can be irrevocably transformed into House-Elves, and this is revealed in chapter 80. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-03-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-23.

• HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is not a character from canon. He is, in fact, a character from an anime. ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-15; known on 2017-01-01.

• >=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-12.

• If XiXiDu has taken a typical IQ test in the last 10 years or takes one this year, he will score at least 115. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2012-03-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-03-08.

• An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030. ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2030-01-01.

• “At least one serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 will be someone newly elected to his or her state’s governorship in 2010.” —Nate Silver ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2012-03-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-03.

• First-year sales of Rowling’s new book will be less than 40% of the first-year sales of Deathly Hallows (44 million according to Wikipedia.) ( 77% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-29; known on 2013-12-20.

• 2020: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01.

• 2020: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 20% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01.

• HP MoR: The use of the device with the golden wibblers is revealed before 2017. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-19; known on 2017-01-01.

• I will have taken over at least one country by 2035. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-13; known on 2035-01-01.

• The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) at least until Curiosity lands on Mars. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-10-01.

• Second Falklands War before 2035 ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-07; known on 2035-01-01.

• There will be at least one human being alive on earth even after the end of the year 2012 ( 100% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by vinayak on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will have mastered physics to 2nd year Uni of Melbourne level ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by waveman on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-07-01.

• USA will collapse before the People’s Republic of China. ( 38% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-04; known on 2030-01-01.

• HP MoR: Methods of Rationality or a derivative work wins a Hugo Award in or before 2016. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2017-01-01.

• By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01.

• 2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in sovereign nation-states. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01.

• Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of Homo sapiens/non-occurrence of apocalypse.) ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-01; known on 2112-02-01.

• HP MoR: Harry’s conclusion about the blood of Atlantis and the origin of magic is deeply flawed in some respect. ( 42% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-28; known on 2016-01-01.

• A nuclear device (bomb, granade etc) with a strength of more than 1 kiloton will explode anywhere in the middle east within the next 5 years. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-29; known on 2017-01-29.

• There will be working blueprints for a space elevator by 2017. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by iconreforged on 2012-01-27; known on 2018-01-01.

• I will unsubscribe from Erfworld. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-07-27.

• My self-promoting link on /r/shakespeare will have karma >0 and <11. http://www.reddit.com/r/shakespeare/comments/oy0rb/the_tragedy_of_prince_hamlet_and_the_philosophers/ ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-02; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-02-02.

• Jeff will defriend me on Facebook sometime in the next three days. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-01-29; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-09.

• I will ask out the person I currently have a crush on. They will say no. ( 65% confidence; 11 wagers; 15 comments )

  Created by Leo on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by Leo on 2012-01-30.

• PredictionBook will display users’ Brier scores by the end of this year. ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01.

• “We will have the ability to communicate through thought transmission” —Dev 2; BBC ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

• Functioning commercial fusion by 2112 —Kennys_Heroes, BBC ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

• “There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 21 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

• “80% of the world will have gay marriage” —Paul, BBC ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

• I will have reached a rating of at least 1830 ELO on Chess Tempo (http://chesstempo.com/chess-statistics/jpulgarin) by January 29, 2012. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-01-29; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-01-26.

• I will have gone to the gym 3 times by January 29, 2012. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-01-29; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-01-29.

• “Moore’s Law will have played out by 2032” —Charles Stross ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

• Between 2012 and 2092, a new plague will kill 1M<x<1B people —Charles Stross ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

• USD worth over 3 EUR ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21.

• Both Congressman Duncan and Senator Corker will individually respond to my e-mail protesting SOPA/PIPA like their office said they would. ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2012-01-18; known on 2012-02-18; judged unknown by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.

• The US will be at war with Iran by 2014 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Isaac on 2011-12-01; known on 2014-01-01.

• Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

• I will drop out of college. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2014-03-31.

• The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31.

• I scored a 90 or higher on my calc quiz today. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by ahartell on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-01-26; judged right by ahartell on 2012-01-17.

• Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by RobertLumley on 2012-01-18.

• (All) Wikipedias’ total editor base will be >=95,000 in June 2012. ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-07-01.

• Iran will not successfully test a nuclear weapon in 2012. ( 92% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by smijer on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-12-31.

• The bitcoin protocol will have a fatal weakness that is discovered, leading to the crash of the bitcoin economy. End of year prediction. ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by kiba on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-12-30.

• No elected government will hold power in Egypt in 2012 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by _W_ on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31.

• “3. LivingSocial catches up to Groupon” —Brian Breslin ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01.

• “9. Facebook hits 1 billion users” —Brian Breslin ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01.

• Conditional on success in the ISS docking, the first two SpaceX resupply missions will succeed —Sketerpot ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-06-30.

• Copyright ruled unconstitutional by a US court before 2016. ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01.

• Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

• The Church of Kopimism will have over 20k members by 2013. Prediction will be withdrawn if membership stats aren’t available. ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-04; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will not miss a single University class between January 4, 2012 and January 8, 2012. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-01-07.

• LessWrong: By 2013, date last edited shows up next to comments that have been edited. (Would foil this evil plan, for instance. http://bit.ly/w0lkyQ ) ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: The Peverell tombstone (“The last enemy that shall be destroyed is death”) will be quoted or clearly alluded to at some point. ( 72% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MOR: EY already planned to incorporate the Peverell tombstone quote before Raemon asked him. ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2015-01-01.

• Bitcoin “Coverage in media will decrease” ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01.

• GJP: #1051 Will Mario Monti resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Italy before 1 January 2013? ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-01-01.

• Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson; Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party; Obama elected ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07.

• Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07.

• Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson ( 98% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07.

• The mens’ rights movement will be mentioned by name in a Time or Newsweek article sometime during 2012. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• A previously unreleased song by Michael Jackson will be released sometime before 2013. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• At least one of my New Years predictions will turn out to be correct for reasons that are surprising to me. ( 80% confidence )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will have a total LessWrong karma of at least 10,000 by the end of the year. ( 75% confidence )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• My mother will not read any books by Steven Pinker this year ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will not become a vegetarian in 2012 ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• In 2012, I will go to at least two open viewing nights for telescopes in the greater Boston area ( 58% confidence )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.

• The Hubble Telescope will continue functioning though 2012 ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• Russia will lose at least one rocket launch in 2012 ( 55% confidence )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• Humans will continue to have at least one functioning probe on Martian surface or a satellite around Mars for all of 2012 ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will coauthor at least one paper on integer complexity in 2013 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• No improvement in factoring integers in a classical setting that has better time-asymptotics than the best current ones will be made in 2012 ( 85% confidence )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• In 2012 there will be new results for either the group isomorphism problem or the graph isomorphism problem discussed at at least one of the following blogs: Combinatorics and more, Shetl-Optimized, Godel’s Lost Letter. ( 52% confidence )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• There will be improvement in efficient matrix multiplication in 2012 that will be discussed in at least one of the following blogs: Combinatorics and more, Shetl-Optimized, Godel’s Lost Letter. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• The relationship between P and BQP will not be resolved in 2012. ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• P != NP will not be resolved by 2013 ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• In 2012, Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities, or the North Korean government will collapse. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will be murdered during my stay in Mexico City. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.

• ‘By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.’ —Kevin ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2021-01-01.

• “There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2012-01-06.

• ‘I expect to see an impressive proto-AGI within the next 8 years’ —Shane Legg ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2019-12-31.

• Reddit: “teaching daughter to ride bike” pic is reposted as “autistic daughter”. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-30; known 20 days ago; judged right by muflax on 2012-03-31.

• SOPA will pass through congress, and then it will not be vetoed. ( 50% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Grognor on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-10-16.

• In 20 years, mainland China’s TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2031-12-28.

• HP MoR: ‘I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100’ —shminux ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2014-01-01.

• Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-29; known on 2025-12-29.

• The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023 ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-12-27; known on 2023-01-01.

• In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known on 2021-12-24.

• SOPA will become US law and either Youtube or Megaupload will be shutdown. ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01.

• An alternative to the US-based Domain Name System will be created and it will be used more widely than the US-based system before 2015. ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2015-01-01.

• Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 ( 75% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by faws on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01.

• Within 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html) ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Morendil on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20.

• Ron Paul will win the Iowa Caucus. ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-04.

• Justin Bieber will go to rehab sometime within the next 10 years ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-31; known on 2021-03-31.

• PredictionBook’s email notification system will be fixed by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-29.

• GJP: #1054 Will a North Korean or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter South Korea before 1 June 2012? ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known in 13 days.

• gwern.net total traffic will average <2000 daily visits in the week a year from now. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-17; known on 2012-12-17.

• I will enjoy Sherlock Holmes tonight. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-15; known on 2011-12-16; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-15.

• If Romney wins the Republican candidacy, then Obama will publicly offer him a bet sometime during the 2012 presidential campaign. This prediction will be withdrawn if the antecedent proposition is false. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-14; known on 2013-01-01.

• Logos01 will commit suicide in 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-05; known on 2016-12-05.

• I will study electronics for at least an hour tomorrow. ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-14.

• I will study actuarial science for at least 2 hours tomorrow. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-14.

• Chrome will be the most widely used browser during July 2012 according to StatCounter. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by faws on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-08-05.

• Harvard’s yield for the class of 2016 will be 76% or below. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-11; known in about 18 hours.

• Duolingo will have over a million users by 2013. ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2013-01-01.

• “[Hillary] Clinton will be Obama’s running mate” ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-12-10; known on 2012-09-03.

• I will reach 1000 karma on LW (http://lesswrong.com/user/RobertLumley) by June 2nd, the anniversary of my first post on LW. ( 68% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08; known in 14 days; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.

• France to lose AAA credit rating before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012 —Intrade ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by bobpage on 2012-01-13.

• The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2021. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01.

• lukeprog will make >2 predictions on PB during 2012. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2013-01-01.

• The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2041. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.

• The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2061. ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.

• Alcor’s Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2061. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.

• Alcor’s Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2041. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.

• Alcor’s Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2021. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01.

• Larry King’s brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-12-04; known on 2070-01-01.

• Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years. ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2045-12-04.

• The singularity will occur by the year 2070 ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by pleeppleep on 2011-12-02; known on 2070-01-01.

• At least one current member will drop out of the Euro. ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by faws on 2011-12-17.

• None of the students with extra time will use all their extra time. ( 75% confidence )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-02; known on 2011-12-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-02.

• brazil84 will approve my comment. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-03; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-30.

• Greece will leave the Euro currency and return to the “Drachme” latest by mid 2012. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by herb on 2011-11-29; known on 2012-07-01.

• Carrie Fisher will die before Harrison Ford. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-28; known on 2040-01-01.

• “Newt Gingrich to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012.” -Intrade ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-28; known on 2012-12-31.

• New home sales in the US will stay below 450.000 for the year 2012 (all time high 1st July 2005 1.389 Mio., all time low 278.000 1st August 2010, current reading 313.000). ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by herb on 2011-11-28; known on 2012-12-31.

• Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States. He will win the Republican nomination and win the general election in 2012. ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by capcuervo on 2011-11-26; known on 2012-11-07.

• By five years from now, (independent) transcriptome data from human post-mortem samples will confirm the finding that the expression of DRD2 is significantly upregulated in the striatum during development (from birth to >= day 100, at alpha 0.05), conting ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Porejide on 2011-11-24; known on 2016-11-24.

• By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.

• In 2012 oil prices will reach $130+ a barrel. ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by M3 on 2011-11-24; known in 27 days.

• By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be deciphered and found to be written in a minority language or an Italian dialect still spoken in Italy today. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.

• A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. ( 24% confidence; 15 wagers; 18 comments )

  Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-23; known on 2021-01-01.

• My guinea pig will learn to move in a circle on command in 2 months time. ( 38% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.

• By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-23; known on 2050-01-01.

• WTI Oil front month (96 US$ today) will go lower and reach 50 US$ by the end of 2012 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by herb on 2011-11-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

• Puella Magi Madoka Magica will win a Nihon Taisho SF award ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-21; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.

• The US$ will touch parity with the Euro (1€=1US$) before the end of 2012 ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by herb on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-12-31.

• The USA will refuse again to commit to new Emmissions Regulations at COP17 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by general on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.

• Jacob Zuma of ANC will not be re-elected to lead South Africa at Mangaung 2012. Julius Malema is his downfall, he shouldn’t have sacked his liutenant rather he should have made peace with the king maker. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by general on 2011-11-19; known on 2012-12-31.

• HP MoR: There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• Ron will not be involved in any romantic relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014. ( 52% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2014-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013. ( 12% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 65% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry/Hermione will be the only romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• ‘Facebook will have an IPO within 2 years: 80% confidence’ —Arthur Breitman ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2013-06-07; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-02.

• “Robert Mugabe to no longer be President of Zimbabwe before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• This web project will be closed down before most of the long term predictions can be judged. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by thaprophet on 2011-11-04; known on 2013-11-04.

• Chavez will not be re-elected president of Venezuela on October 07, 2012. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by alexguerrero on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-10-07.

• Robert Mugabe of ZANU-PFwill lose to Morgan Tsvangirai of MDC-T in the next election(2012) in Zimbabwe ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by general on 2011-11-17; known in 13 days.

• By 2025, the GOP’s current libertarian/conservative coalition will no longer be united under one party. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

• “One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2035-01-01.

• ‘2021 The first humans land on Mars.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

• The recession that began in 2008 in the US will not be “over” (arbitrarily defined by me as < 5% unemployment for three economic quarters) until 2023. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by deborama on 2011-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.

• “Sonia Sotomayor to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2016-01-01.

• Real Madrid would have won the champions league at least 6 times by the year 2025 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Seyi on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-01-01.

• PredictionBook will be modified sometime before January 10, 2012 months to have some form of moderation. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 13 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-01-10.

• By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.

• “By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01.

• By 2014, Iran will have detonated a nuclear bomb. ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2014-01-01.

• “By the year 2020, the tickets to space travel – at the least to Moon, will be available over the counter.” ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01.

• Bitcoin stays >= $60 for at least 72 hours, any time before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01.

• “Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.” ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

• I will make a prediction on PB in 2012. ( 88% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-01-02.

• The unemployment rate in Singapore will not exceed 5% in 2012. ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will continue using PredictionBook at least once a month until 2015. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2015-01-01.

• The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant. ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2065-12-01.

• A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-11-30.

• With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2023-07-29.

• Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-01.

• Caffeine will be an illegal substance … in 60 countries by 2027. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-01-01.

• The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2039-12-15.

• The worlds first “truely” cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-02-27.

• The United States, Canada, and Mexico will form the North American Union in August 2020. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2020-08-30.

• The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2046-01-01.

• The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2036-01-01.

• The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-01-01.

• World currences will become truly “credit-based” by 2021. Smartcards with biometric IDs will be the forefront of a new era in currency marketing. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2021-12-16.

• Cognitive Implants will be available for consumer use by 2040. ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-11-17.

• Truly “Pilotless” air travel will be the standard in 2050. ( 71% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2050-12-16.

• World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons … anywhere … on Earth. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-01-16.

• Computers will become truely self-aware by 2029. ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-27.

• Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-01-16.

• HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-30.

• The Third World War (WW III) will occur within 20 years from 2012. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-31.

• The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-01-16.

• Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-17.

• Contact Sports (football,boxing, kick boxing, most martial arts) will be outlawed in 60% of the world by 2025 due to a medical discovery. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-12-16.

• “Lindsay Lohan will be dead within 2 years.” ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2013-11-16.

• Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than or equal to 75%. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-01-01.

• By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125 ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2045-01-01.

• By 2036 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2036-01-01.

• By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2085-01-01.

• By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140 ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2085-01-01.

• The oldest living person on 2020-01-01 will be at least 130 years old. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2020-01-01.

• The SCOTUS ruling on the Obama administration’s health care reform law will be a 5-4 decision. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-07-01.

• A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• At the end of 2012, the Poincaré conjecture will remain the only solved Millennium Prize Problem. ( 93% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01.

• Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.

• The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.

• The considerable increase in this sites visitors will inspire some activity in promoting the product. I predict a prediction book facebook page by Dec 31st 2011 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )

  Created by leejhancox on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-31; judged unknown by leejhancox on 2011-12-14.

• Members of the U.S. House of Representatives will form an “Occupy Caucus” with at least five members within a year after the 2012 elections. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-11-06.

• By November 20, 2011 I will have reached a rating of at least 1780 ELO on Chess Tempo (http://chesstempo.com/chess-statistics/jpulgarin) ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-20; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-19.

• I will do 20 hours of freelance work by November 20, 2011. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-20; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-21.

• I will have read “Four Hour Workweek” by November 20, 2011. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-20; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-19.

• I will have finished all functionality for the gradual rollout tool for Khan Academy by November 20, 2011. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-20; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-19.

• I will brainstorm ideas for anything for the first 5-10 minutes after I wake up in the mornings, and record them all. I will do this every day for at least 1 month. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by divad12 on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-15; judged right by divad12 on 2012-01-07.

• “Sometime in the next five years, there will be a terroristic attack in or near Las Vegas.” -David Henderson ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14; known on 2016-11-14.

• My continuous web archiving system will have 90%+ uptime in 2012 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01.

• The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025. ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

• Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

• By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using “3D printing” technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

• Before or on November 13, 2011 I will have reached a rating of at least 1800 ELO on Chess Tempo (http://chesstempo.com/chess-statistics/jpulgarin) ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-07; known on 2011-11-13; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-14.

• I will email 20 press outlets regarding TextMotivate.com before or on November 13, 2011. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-07; known on 2011-11-13; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-14.

• I will read the A Human’s Guide to Words sequence before or on November 13, 2011. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-07; known on 2011-11-13; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-14.

• I will go to the gym 3 times before November 13, 2011. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-07; known on 2011-11-13; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-14.

• I will do 20 hours of freelance work before or on November 13, 2011. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-07; known on 2011-11-13; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-14.

• “3D printing” will be a multi-billion dollar industry by 2021. ( 71% confidence; 14 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2021-01-01.

• At least one presidential debate of 2012 will include a question about “anti-capitalism”. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-07.

• Germany will not leave Euro by end of 2012 ( 93% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by procran on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2012-01-01.

• At least one self-described “anarchist” will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2021-01-01.

• By 2025, at least one object larger than Mars will be discovered within 4 lightyears of our Solar System. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

• At least two first-term Republican congressmen/congresswomen elected in 2010 will be defeated by their Democratic rivals in 2012. ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-08.

• The Republicans to control the House of Representatives after 2012 Congressional Elections – Intrade ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01.

• “I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, fo ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2100-01-01.

• By 2025, water vapor will be detected in the atmosphere of at least one free-floating “rogue planet”. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

• Within two years, at least one exoplanet less than 3 Earth masses will be discovered and verified orbiting within the habitable zone of its star. (Habitable zone=liquid water likely) ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-11-12.

• For my 2012 PB predictions, my actual accuracy will be at least 10% higher than the average certainty assigned to those predictions by other users. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01.

• By 2050, more tobacco will be utilized in the biofuel industry than in the cigar & cigarette industry. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2050-01-01.

• The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged unknown by Houshalter on 2010-06-26.

• By 2112, deep sea exploration will reveal a hitherto unknown species of living trilobite. ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2112-01-01.

• Within a month, the British High Court will rule in favor of the journal Nature in the libel case brought against it by Professor Mohamed El Naschie. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-13; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2011-12-14.

• By the end of this month, the Russian Phobos-Grunt interplanetary probe will be destroyed. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-01.

• 30 new speaker invitations for Singularity Summit 2012 will be written by the end of Monday, Nov. 14th. ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by lukeprog on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-15; judged right by lukeprog on 2011-11-15.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. ( 61% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-13.

• A third-party or independent candidate running to the right of the Republican nominee will garner at least 1% of the vote in at least one state in the 2012 U.S. presidential election. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-07.

• Synthetic meat will be mass-marketed by 2020. ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.

• By 2025, single-lens magnifying glasses that allow a person to view unicellular microorganisms will be available to consumers for less than US$100 (adjusted for inflation). ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

• By November 2015, Howard Dean will form an exploratory committee to float his name for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-11-01.

• Barack Obama will win Ohio’s electoral votes in the 2012 election. ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-11-07.

• Herman Cain’s actual vote share in the 2012 Republican primaries will be significantly lower than his averaged national poll numbers at the time (as indicated by standard measures of statistical significance). ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-08-30.

• A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

• The technology to render a human effectively invisible (i.e. apparently transparent) to the eye at a distance of less than 100 meters will be publicly demonstrated by 2020. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2020-01-01.

• In 2012, at least one U.S. television station will air an advertisement attacking Mitt Romney by making reference to his Mormonism. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-12-31.

• Clear biomarkers will be detected in the atmosphere of more than one “Super Earth” exoplanet by Christmas, 2017. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2017-12-26.

• China will forgive US debt in exchange for the ending of US-Taiwan defense treaties by or during 2015 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-11; known on 2016-01-01.

• 1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers; 13 comments )

  Created by amcknight on 2011-11-11; known on 2036-01-01.

• German Pirate Party to enter Bundestag in next election. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-10-27.

• Yvain will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• wedrifid will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-31.

• cousin_it will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• Alicorn will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• Phil Goetz will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-03-25.

• Robin Hanson will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• Anna Salamon will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• Wei Dai will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• The prediction market intrade will still be open for business in 2020. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01.

• The weekly newspaper The Economist will be in continuous publication until at least 2043. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2043-01-01.

• Eliezer Yudkowsky will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• Luke Muehlhauser will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by bobpage on 2011-11-12.

• Raymond Kurzweil will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• Stewart Alexis Alexander, of the Socialist Party USA, will receive less than 1% of the popular vote in the 2012 presidential election. ( 92% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07.

• In 2020, every single one of the 5 tallest buildings in the world will be located in China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01.

• Nassim Nicholas Taleb will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• ‘Will Palin, Trump, Bloomberg, Paul or Bachmann run as an Independent or 3rd party candidate?’ —Intrade ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-09; known on 2012-11-02.

• “By the year 2020 solar electricity will be as cheap or cheaper than that produced by fossil fuels.” ( 68% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01.

• Spot gold price will touch at least $2000 by December 31, 2012. ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers )

  Created by dakyne on 2011-07-16; known on 2013-01-01.

• A team will win the Google Lunar X PRIZE grand prize before the end of 2015 ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-01-21; known on 2016-01-01.

• “The Google Lunar X Prize to be won on/before 31 Dec 2012.” -intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01.

• “Global temperatures in 2012 to be highest recorded.” -ipredict ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01.

• lukeprog will receive <50 individual items of feedback through his form in the next month. ( 67% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-05; known on 2011-12-05; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-05.

• Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 89% confidence; 21 wagers )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07.

• Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 19% confidence; 23 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-11-05.

• I will be using PredictionBook for personal productivity goals at least weekly for a month. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by divad12 on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-11-24.

• “Microsoft will be have the largest market capitalization of any publicly traded company in the world by 2015.” ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-04.

• United States Facebook user base will fall under 100,000,000 users by December 31, 2013. ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Joe Craig on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-12-16.

• Greece will quit euro ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by sucrenoir on 2011-11-04; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-19.

• Obama gets reelected and during that time Hillary Clinton brokers the middle east peace deal between Israel and Palestine for the two state solution. This secures her presidency in 2016. ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by lionflower on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-09-09.

• AOL & Yahoo to merge by 2013. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will score above an 85 on my USH test ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-30; known on 2011-11-13; judged right by isaacn16 on 2011-11-13.

• I will get over a 90 on all 3 of my upcoming tests this week (Math, Biology, US History) ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-30; known on 2011-11-20; judged wrong by isaacn16 on 2011-11-20.

• A new US Political party will come to power by 2020 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-01; known on 2020-11-16.

• “Rick Perry to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by falenas108 30 days ago.

• Gold will be $2000 by Jan 2012 ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by eduffy on 2011-11-03; known on 2012-01-16; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-16.

• ‘I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent’ —Steven Pinker ( 52% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-03; known on 2022-01-01.

• The EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011. ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Fledi on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-04.

• Reddit: guy who signed birth certificate of another man’s child will get sued for child support before 2013. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-10-30; known on 2013-01-01.

• President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 33% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged unknown by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-04.

• Evidence of extraterrestrial life will be discovered by 2017. ( 11% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2017-01-01.

• My Introduction to Java deck will be the most downloaded Anki deck containing the word “Java” on 03-01-2012. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-03-03.

• The “technological singularity” will be a major paradigm shift for humanity. ( 83% confidence; 8 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by steve1interstock on 2011-11-02; known on 2111-11-02; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-05.

• Holographic television will be widely available by 2021. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2021-11-01; judged unknown by tswift on 2011-11-04.

• LW: average IQ in survey will be at or above the 98th percentile and thus eligible for Mensa membership. ( 67% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-11-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.

• LW: average IQ in survey will be 140-145. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-11-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.

• A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2018-01-01 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-31; known on 2018-01-01.

• MoR: ch 78 will mention Amanda Knox ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-20.

• The TV show “Grimm” will be canceled in it’s first season. ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by sdenheyer on 2011-10-22; known on 2012-08-01.

• Next 3 Turing Award winners will be a subset of Shor/Herlihy/Stallman/Szegedy/Dally —kenjackson ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2014-01-01.

• A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2020-01-01; 99.8% —David Dalrymple ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2020-01-01.

• A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2014-06-08; 76% —David Dalrymple ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2014-06-08.

• “Will Rick Perry to win a Republican primary/caucus in 2012? —Intrade” ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2012-08-27.

• I will complete Project Euler Problem #2 within the next 14 days. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-31; known on 2011-11-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14.

• There will be a continual presence on Mars of at least one person or probe either on the surface or in orbit until at least 2045 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-31; known on 2045-01-01.

• “Image recorded by NASA Curiosity on Mars surface to be published in 2012” -ipredict ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27; known on 2013-01-01.

• ‘The International Space Station is decommissioned’ by 2029 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2029-01-01.

• There will be fewer than 64 new comics posted on http://hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.com between 1.6.2011 and 1.1.2013 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Boxo on 2011-06-05; known on 2013-01-01.

• Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared. —Ray Kurzweil ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01.

• “Ron Paul to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012” -Intrade ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known on 2012-02-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-06.

• Erik and I will watch the original version of The Thing today. ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-10-27; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27.

• “Focus Fusion process to generate net power before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2014” -intrade ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2015-01-01.

• I will go to the gym on Tuesday October 25, 2011. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-25; known on 2011-10-26; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-26.

• I will finish a polynomial exercise for Khan Academy on October 25, 2011 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-25; known on 2011-10-26; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-31.

• I will have launched a SaaS startup before or on October 29, 2011. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-25; known on 2011-10-29; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-31.

• Before or on October 29, 2011 I will have a total of 250 problems done in Chess Tempo (http://chesstempo.com/chess-statistics/jpulgarin) ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-25; known on 2011-10-29; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-31.

• Before or on October 29, 2011 I will have added 40 cards to my Anki deck in 7 days. (Currentlly at 125) ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-25; known on 2011-10-29; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-31.

• By October 24, 2012 brazil84 will update his estimate that Amanda Knox was guilty to below 50% and declare that he has so updated on Less Wrong. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-25; known on 2012-10-24.

• In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Konkvistador on 2011-10-24; known on 2039-01-01.

• I will finish a polynomial exercise for Khan Academy on Monday October 24, 2011 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-24; known on 2011-10-25; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-25.

• I will be able to earn a reliable living off writing and possible start-ups that I’m involved in by the end of 2013. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2014-01-01.

• Occupy Wall Street (NYC) will continue at least 30 more days. ( 80% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by torekp on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-23.

• I will go to the gym either Saturday October 21 or Sunday October 22. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-23; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-24.

• Before 2012, the United States will lose its triple-A credit rating from Moody’s or Fitch (or both) ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-10-23; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-01.

• Steve Jobs’ brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-10-21; known on 2070-01-01.

• I will abstain from sexual activity (porn, masturbation, orgasm) until January 31st, 2012. ( 45% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-01-31.

• Firefox’s latest stable version number will at least double in 2012 ( 27% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by slikts on 2011-10-13; known on 2013-01-01.

• The discussion post http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/842/the_sciencearchist_manifesto/’s comment section will contain a flame war started by someone other than myself by the end of this Friday ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by beo_shaffer on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-10-21; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2011-10-27.

• ROSAT will reenter by November 15 ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.

• ROSAT will reenter by November 2 ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.

• No human fatalities will result from the ROSAT reentry. ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.

• At least 10% of MRI images uploaded to radiopaedia.org will be of resolution greater than 512×512px (upscaling doesn’t count). ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Matt on 2011-10-19; known on 2013-10-19.

• Average global temperature will be higher for 2011 than 2010. ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.

• Average global temperature will be higher for 2012 than 2011. ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-01-01.

• My penis will temporary stop responding to sexual stimuli in three days. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-18; known on 2011-10-21; judged wrong by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20.

• The U.S. economy will not be back to 6% or less unemployment until 2018. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by maverickmath on 2011-10-18; known on 2018-12-31.

• My practice SAT scores will be high enough that I will be able to confidently take it in January ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-01; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by isaacn16 on 2011-12-15.

• I will go to the gym tomorrow ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-18; judged wrong by isaacn16 on 2011-10-18.

• I will go to the gym 3 times by Saturday ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by isaacn16 on 2011-10-22.

• Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 ( 35% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2025-01-01.

• Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2019 ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2019-01-01.

• Every shower I take within the next 7 days will be a cold shower. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-16; known on 2011-10-23; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-23.

• I will have launched a SaaS startup within 7 days. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-16; known on 2011-10-23; judged wrong by bobpage on 2011-10-23.

• Fobos-Grunt will successfully launch and return to Earth by March 1, 2020 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-03.

• Fobos-Grunt will launch successfully by December 25, 2011. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2011-12-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-03.

• By 2034 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2034-01-01.

• By 2075 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2075-01-01.

• By 2065 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2065-01-01.

• By 2026 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2026-01-01.

• By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2055-01-01.

• By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2055-01-01.

• By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2045-01-01.

• By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2035-01-01.

• By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2045-01-01.

• By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2035-01-01; judged unknown by isaacn16 on 2011-10-17.

• By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2025-01-01.

• Google Knol will be shutdown in 2013 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.

• Google Knol will be shutdown in 2012 ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-22.

• Google Knol will be shutdown in 2011 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.

• “Kevin Rudd will depart as Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs before 1 July 2012.” ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-07-01.

• Marijuana will not be decriminalised in Latvia at least until the end of year 2012. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-12; known on 2012-12-31.

• “. The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.” —Dan King ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2021-01-01.

• There will be at least one major outbreak of violence during the Occupy Wall Street protest. ( 45% confidence; 12 wagers; 15 comments )

  Created by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-11; judged wrong by Noetic Jun on 2011-11-11.

• The PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 2 years. ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.

• The PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 1 year. ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.

• “No American Soap Operas by 2015” —Ken ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• The Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be deleted within a month. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-11; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-10-12.

• The Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be tagged for deletion or deleted within 2 weeks. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.

• “Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30.

• ‘As for [Korean] reunification, I see it in the next five years.’ —B.R. Myers ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-02-26; known on 2016-02-23.

• “Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.” ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2203-01-01.

• “I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.” ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2100-01-01.

• The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 100% confidence; 41 wagers; 20 comments )

  Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-11-06.

• As of 2012-12-21, the OPERA neutrino anomaly at CERN will not have been reproduced by anyone, anywhere. ( 88% confidence; 14 wagers; 15 comments )

  Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-18.

• ‘Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%’ —taw ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2021-01-01.

• Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01.

• Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2021-09-14.

• Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.

• Consensus will be that Koomey’s Law no longer applies in 25 years. ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-10; known on 2036-10-10.

• I will have completed a PhD degree in Electrical Engineering by the end of 2014. ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by maverickmath on 2011-10-09; known on 2014-12-31.

• CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein’s general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-09.

• In Sanderson’s “Allow of Law” it will turn out that either Marasi or Steris is (or becomes) a full Mistborn or a full Feruchemist. ( 8% confidence )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-10; known on 2011-11-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-08.

• Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election. ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by maverickmath on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-11-07; judged unknown by JRMayne on 2011-10-11.

• the Occupy Wall Street protest will begin suffering from communicable diseases and this cause the authorities to crack down and remove them all. ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.

• “I predict that by 2020 Nike will be the only remaining sneaker company” —Whutsiznaim ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01.

• Andrea Rossi’s 1 MW plant based on his energy catalyzer invention will not succeed within a year. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2012-10-08.

• “I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 13% confidence; 15 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08.

• By 2012-10-01, I will have written a book of fiction that has at least 50,000 words and has been read by at least 50 people. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2012-10-01.

• I will have completed a Master of Science degree in Computer Science by the end of 2013. ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2014-01-01.

• “About 85% of the oldest-lived companies listed have websites. I bet the ones that will fail in the next 5 years will be in the 15% that don’t have a website in 2008.” —Kevin Kelly ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-08; known on 2013-06-13.

• Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.

• Chess will be a solved game in 50 years ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.

• Steve Jobs’s will shall donate >=99% of his wealth to charity. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01.

• Steve Jobs’s will shall donate >=50% of his wealth to charity ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01.

• Steve Jobs’s will shall donate 0-10% of his wealth to charity ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07.

• ‘Conrad Murray to be found guilty of involuntary manslaughter’ [of Michael Jackson] ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-08.

• There will be no noticeable disruption of financial services offered by the New York Stock Exchange on October 10th. ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Gedusa on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11.

• Eliezer Yudkowsky’s book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04.

• LW: Goetz’s mugging post will be <= -7 in 1 month. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-04.

• ‘The East Side Access subway extension opens in New York’ in 2016 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2016-01-01.

• Philip Roth for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by ka on 2011-10-06.

• Haruki Murakami for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by ka on 2011-10-06.

• I will have read the “Map and Territory” Less Wrong sequence in 7 days. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-02; known on 2011-10-09; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-09.

• The ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command will be dissolved on schedule. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2012-04-17.

• India’s first manned spaceflight by 2017. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01.

• ‘Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history’ ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10.

• My next full practice SAT score will be over 2050 ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-01; known on 2011-10-15; judged wrong by isaacn16 on 2011-10-17.

• I will score over a 2200 on my March 2012 SAT ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-01; known on 2012-03-20; judged wrong by isaacn16 on 2012-02-28.

• Vettel to win f1 championship ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Laurablack on 2011-09-26; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-30.

• Sweatshops will be regarded as an essential step to modern prosperity by 2015 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-01; known on 2015-01-16.

• The 2012 Apocalypse will end up being a hoax. ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by seansman15@hotmail.com on 2011-03-23; known on 2012-12-23.

• Within two years, consensus will be that Edward Nelson’s current attempt at demonstrating a contradiction in PA fails. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-27; known on 2013-09-27; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-01.

• ‘the countries of Iceland, Macedonia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia have all joined the ranks of the EU member nations’ by 2018 ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01.

• ‘After a six year construction period, the Kingdom Tower opens in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.’ in 2017 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01.

• ‘Electric and hybrid trucks are now surpassing 100,000 in annual production numbers worldwide’ in 2017 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01.

• “When Apple announces a 27-inch or 30-inch Retina Display, you can bet it will have an integrated GPU.” —Robert X Cringely ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known in 13 days.

• ‘A pill to prevent sunburn’ is available either over-the-counter or by prescription ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2016-01-01.

• ‘Cosmetic surgery has doubled its market size’ (in 2017 compared to 2010) ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01.

• ‘China launches an unmanned sample return mission to the Moon’ ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01.

• The Gaia mission will launch in 2013 ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2014-01-01.

• ‘The Internet has a greater reach than television’ by/during 2014 (America) ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-01-01.

• “By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking.” ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2040-01-01.

• Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2023-01-01.

• Switzerland to decommission all nuclear reactor by 2035. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2035-01-01.

• ‘Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year’ ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged unknown by Swimmy on 2011-10-19.

• The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite will strike a person, residence, or vehicle, where the impact results in at least one human death (that we know about) before 2011-10-25 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-09-24; known on 2011-10-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-26.

• The appearance of complex numbers in quantum mechanics has something to do with information propagating backwards through time regarding constraints on which possible world(s) may obtain. This is related to getting bits of Chaitin’s omega by observing app ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-24; known on 2031-09-24.

• Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 47% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.

• Michael House will reply within a week. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-09-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-29.

• No euthanasia coaster will be built in the next 30 years. (See http://news.discovery.com/tech/euthanasia-sucicide-rollercoaster-ride-110919.html ) ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2041-09-21.

• By 2020, a former US government official will come forward to say that they were involved in planning the 9/11 attacks. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01.

• By 2020, one of Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, George W. Bush, Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton, Richard Myers, or Peter Pace will state he had advanced knowledge of the 9/11 attacks or helped plan those attacks. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01.

• Southern Baptist Convention will not rename themselves in the next two years. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2013-09-20.

• The NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2012-03-22; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• Qwikster will resurrect Red Envelope Entertainment or some similar film production and distribution arm within a year of the Qwikster/Netflix split. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by roxton on 2011-09-19; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by roxton on 2011-10-10.

• In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted). ( 48% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-09-20; known on 2021-09-16.

• The Doctor (from Doctor Who) will exceed the usual regeneration limit via genetic looms, like the Other is rumored to have done. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-10-16; judged unknown by papermachine on 2011-11-02.

• US Supercommittee to publish >=$1.5t deficit reduction by midnight 23 November 2011 ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-19; known on 2011-11-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.

• SpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 15, 2012 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-19; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by kiba on 2012-01-15.

• SpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 1, 2013 ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-01-01.

• “Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.

• Israel and Egypt at war by 2022 ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-16; known on 2022-01-01.

• gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC) ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

• “I expect Apple to move to a modular architecture where the building blocks for high performance computers are generally Mac Minis.” —Robert X Cringely ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known in 13 days.

• Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 6% confidence; 17 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-10.

• Google + will have under 10 million users by 2013 ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-14; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will improve the T >= (11/20)S bound by 2013. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-14; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will be a USCF Master before I turn 23. ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-13; known on 2014-11-15.

• BitcoinEXpress attack on Namecoin will be successful in reversing the hashchain at least temporarily ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-13; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-30.

• “By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world’s number 1 search engine.” —Yan Bashkin ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-30; known on 2050-01-01.

• ‘Most phone calls are made via the Internet’ in 2014 ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01.

• “By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G’s) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world’s GDP.” ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2024-12-31.

• Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-09-12; known on 2022-01-01.

• GJP: Kim Jong-Il or his designated successor to be in charge of North Korea as of December 31, 2012 ( 87% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-12-31.

• A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10.

• A professional athlete will not voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2041-01-01.

• “United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.

• Gaddafi will be killed or captured ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Dylan on 2011-09-08; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by Dylan on 2011-09-30.

• Greece Will be Bankrupt within 6 months from today ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by niekjetten on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-01.

• There will be a major terrorist attack (>= 60 deaths) between 2011-09-10 20:00 UTC and 2011-09-12 06:00 UTC anywhere in the world except Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Iraq. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-09-10; known on 2011-09-12; judged wrong by bobpage on 2011-09-12.

• Another episode of Firefly featuring most of the original cast (whether real or emulated or CGI) will be made before 2052 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-09-10; known on 2052-01-01.

• HP MoR: Eliezer will publish ch78 before 7PM PST 13 September 2011 ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2011-09-13; judged wrong by fergus on 2011-09-13.

• GJP: the Saudi monarchy continue to rule Saudi Arabia as of March 1, 2012 ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-03-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-03-01.

• “King Abdullah to no longer be head of government in Saudi Arabia before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• Before the year 2300, there will be a Chabad on Mars. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-05; known on 2300-01-01.

• HP MoR: Voldemort never intended Harry’s own death on the night of his parents’ death. ( 55% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-09-04.

• HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black ( 17% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-09-04.

• No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 83% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by bobpage on 2011-10-02.

• Before December Roland will not make any bet with me over any 9/11 truth related claims and will not give estimates on PB for any of the related statements already added to PB ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-01.

• PZ Myers will still identify as an atheist in one year. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04.

• The Richard Dawkins article on Conservapedia will in one year have in its stable form a picture of at least one of Hitler, Stalin, or Lenin ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04.

• The “Counterexamples to Relativity” page will still exist on Conservapedia in one year ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04.

• “Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-12-31.

• LW User:Morendil will tag >=500 predictions on PB.com using my suggested ad hoc scheme. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.

• “The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005.” ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-01-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-05.

• By the end of 2012, there will be a general consensus that the gold bubble has burst. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-01-01.

• Florian Luca and Carl Pomerance’s bound on the radical of a perfect number will be improved within 3 years by replacing the 17/26 exponent with some smaller exponent. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-03; known on 2015-09-03.

• The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 72% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01.

• http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years —Jeremy Keith ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-02-19; known on 2022-02-18.

• Usain Bolt will leave a positive doping test before or during the London Olympics ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-09-03; known on 2012-09-03.

• “Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star” will get an average critic’s rating of between 20-30% on rottentomatoes.com ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-09-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-18.

• By 2018, an editorial in either the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal will call for an investigation into whether the 9/11 Truth movement’s accusations are correct. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2018-01-01.

• By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2035-01-01.

• By 2025, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2025-01-01.

• By 2020, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2020-01-01.

• By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2031-01-01.

• ‘Global average temperatures have risen by 4°C*’ ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2070-01-01.

• ‘Global average temperatures have risen by 3°C’ ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2056-01-01.

• ‘Global average temperatures have risen by 2°C’ ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2041-01-01.

• ‘Global average temperatures have risen by 1°C’ ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2021-01-01.

• “Moore’s Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.” ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2052-01-01; judged unknown by Traubert on 2010-08-11.

• “One hundred years from now the world’s governments will formally and legally recognize the basic human right of mobility: a person may live anywhere on earth if they agree to obey local laws.” ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2103-01-01.

• ‘more than half of Baby Boomers will live healthy lives beyond 100’ —Ron Klatz ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-11-14; known on 2049-01-01.

• There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2011-11-02.

• I will be put on moderation/expelled from the Miyazaki mailing list for providing a public archive ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-01.

• I will be killed or more than slightly injured skydiving for the first time Saturday ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-09-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-03.

• Before January 1, 2020, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore’s algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2020-01-01.

• Before January 1, 2045, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore’s algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2045-01-01.

• Before January 1, 2030, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore’s algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2030-01-01.

• The judge will rule that Julian Assange be extradited to Sweden after hearings in July. ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-07; known on 2011-10-01; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-02.

• Anderson Cooper will come out on his daytime talk show. ( 24% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-01.

• Lady Gaga will launch her next tour in Omaha, NE. ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-29.

• The current criteria for awarding the “Poseidon award” offered by the seastead insitute, will be met by someone by 2015. ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Konkvistador on 2011-08-30; known on 2016-01-01.

• I will get the Fulbright Scholarship within 5 years from now. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by luannt1211 on 2011-08-30; known on 2016-01-01.

• Madonna’s new movie “W.E.” will get 80% or better from critics on Rotten Tomatoes ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.

• I will watch one or more of Tokyo Godfathers, Gunslinger Girl, The Cat Returns, or Haibane Renmei before 2014-01-01 and really like one or more ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-08-30; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by bobpage on 2011-09-18.

• The ISS will continue to have crew continuously through the end of November ( 84% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-30; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-01.

• “Will Ron Paul to win a Republican primary/caucus in 2012?” —Intrade ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-29; known on 2013-01-01.

• A state will try to secede from the US in the next 25 years ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29; known on 2036-08-29.

• Automated machines for custom shoes in widespread use. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01.

• I will not consider any of the next four chapters of HPMR to be as good as chapter 74. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 13 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-03-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-03-12.

• “Antonin Scalia to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01.

• 2015-2016: German GDP growth > French and British GDP growth —Michael Pettis ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2017-01-01.

• Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland to leave the Euro —Michael Pettis ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2020-01-01.

• My apartment will not lose power during Hurricane Irene. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-26; known on 2011-09-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29.

• There will be no statistically significant increase in neutrino levels detected by detectors attributable to the recent supernova in M101. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-26; known on 2011-09-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-25.

• My DNS provider migration for 6 domains will not cause any downtime (incl. web and email), where downtime is caused by a misconfiguration on my part ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-08-25; known on 2011-08-28; judged right by bobpage on 2011-08-30.

• Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-25; known on 2039-08-25.

• “Intrade.com to be open for business on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by bobpage on 2012-01-01.

• A Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon’s diary either as a quote or written by Bacon. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-01.

• “In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones” —Marc Andreessen ( 75% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2021-08-20.

• Google+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year, due to SDr’s petition campaign. ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2012-08-20.

• Google+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2012-08-20.

• “Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 12250 on 31 Aug 2011” —Intrade ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-08-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-31.

• The Hubble Telescope will not deorbit before January 1, 2020. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2020-01-01.

• The Hubble Telescope will deorbit before the end of 2025 ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2026-01-01.

• James Webb telescope is launched in 2014 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01.

• The kidnappings in Sanderson’s “The Alloy of Law” will turn out to be in order to construct a captive breeding program to make Mistborn ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-13.

• The kidnappings in Sanderson’s “The Alloy of Law” will turn out to be in order to make hemalurgic spikes from the victims. ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-08.

• The James Webb Telescope will launch successfully by the end of 2019 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2020-01-01.

• The James Webb Telescope will launch successfully by the end of 2015 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2016-01-01.

• Michele Bachmann will be revealed as a drug addict before Election Day ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Jach on 2011-07-20; known on 2012-11-06.

• HPMOR will update again by October 20th ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-17; known on 2011-10-21; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-25.

• “You will hear nothing about Google+ a year from now.” – Eliezer Yudkowsky (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2722976) ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Boxo on 2011-07-03; known on 2012-07-03.

• I will have watched every video on Khan Academy by August 2013. ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2013-08-17.

• Syrian president Bashar al-Assad will lose control over his country in 2011. ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01.

• ‘Artificial Intelligence reaches human level. From now on there are two intelligent species on Earth.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2021-01-01.

• “In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions.” ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2108-12-31.

• By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01.

• Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 ( 21% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Porejide on 2011-08-25.

• Harry Altman and I will have at least one joint paper published by the end of 2013 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-16; known on 2014-01-01.

• Relationship between P and BPP resolved by 2045 ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-16; known on 2045-01-01.

• “The US Economy will go into Recession during 2011” —Intrade ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

• “Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31.

• “Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “Hamas accepts Israel’s right to exist before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.

• “China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31.

• “China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31.

• “China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31.

• “Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31.

• “Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31.

• “Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31.

• “Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31.

• “Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31.

• “Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “125 or more US banks to fail during 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.

• “Hillary Clinton to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01.

• “Rupert Murdoch to depart as CEO of News Corp before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “David Cameron to no longer be Prime Minister before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• ‘NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2014’ —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2014-12-31.

• ‘NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013’ —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-31.

• ‘NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012’ —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-12-31.

• “Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 South Carolina Primary” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-01-28; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-22.

• “Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-25.

• “Michele Bachmann to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01.

• " I’m reasonably certain that [>1b pub library circulation] will also be true 35 years from now" ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-12; known on 2046-09-01.

• “Ten years from now, U.S. public libraries will circulate more than a billion print books each year” —Walt Crawford ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-12; known on 2021-09-01.

• The next Humble Bundle accepts Bitcoin for payment. ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-12-13.

• In the next five years, two classes in the Complexity Zoo as of 10 August 2011, will either be shown to be equal or shown to be unequal. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-10; known on 2016-08-10.

• Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-28.

• In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 25% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2070-12-31.

• By default, the Command Prompt in Windows 8 RTM will be resizable (to an increase in width) by dragging the corner resizer. ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-08-09; known in 12 days.

• Roger Ver will not create a Longbets about his Bitcoin>gold/silver prediction within a month. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-08; known on 2011-09-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-21.

• The ITER fusion reactor will have first plasma by the end of 2022. ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2023-01-01.

• The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) for at least another six months. ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-09.

• The Curiosity rover will successfully land on Mars. ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-09-01.

• The Dow Jones will be at least 10,000 on January 1st, 2012 ( 62% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• The Dow Jones will be at least 11,000 on January 1st, 2012 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• I will make at least one prediction on PredictionBook in 2012 ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-08-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by bobpage on 2012-01-01.

• Terence Tao will solve the Clay Institute problem on the Navier-Stokes equation (or prove it cannot be done) within the next five years. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-08-05; known on 2016-08-05.

• Ron Paul will win the electoral vote in the 2012 U.S. Presidential election ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-08-04; known on 2012-11-08.

• “Bitcoins will outperform Gold, Silver by 100X over the next two years” —Roger Ver ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-04; known on 2013-08-04.

• Robin Hanson’s brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 42% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.

• The US Democratic Party fragments before the 2016 primary season. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-08-03; known on 2016-01-16.

• 300: Battle of Artemisia is not produced and released in the next decade. ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-02; known on 2021-08-02.

• The US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15 ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-15.

• A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 94% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Morendil on 2011-11-03.

• Confirmed observation of a neutrino source outside our solar system other than SN 1987A by 2060 ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-25; known on 2061-01-01.

• ’ No circuit lower bound of {{1000n}} or better will be proved for SAT.’ in 2011 —Lipton ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02.

• ‘Graph Isomorphism will be proved to be reducible to the Graph Reconstruction Problem.’ in 2011 —Lipton ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• I will be raided or searched over my Silk Road article. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-07-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.

• By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Konkvistador on 2011-07-21; known on 2051-02-01.

• “within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.” —Dennis Mangan ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-07-21; known on 2021-01-01.

• “The Internet will become overloaded, causing brownouts and then outright gridlock. From 2012, PCs and laptops are likely to operate at a much reduced speed, rendering the internet an “unreliable toy” —Ted Ritter ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known in 18 days.

• ‘A Clay problem will be solved by two independent researchers at about the same time.’ in 2011 —Lipton ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• “By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.” ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.

• My entry will win the GitP 28th PrC contest. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-18; known on 2011-07-27; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-30.

• My SR thread on Bitcoin forums will be deleted or otherwise hidden or suppressed. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-07-17; known on 2011-08-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-07-18.

• “We believe that by 2015 digital currency will be accepted everywhere in the U.S. – from your local corner store to Walmart. We will no longer need to carry a wallet,” PayPal President Scott Thompson ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-07-15; known on 2016-01-01.

• Apple will surpass Microsoft in revenue in a max. of 5 years. ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by crlosg2 on 2009-05-31; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by RandomThinker 14 days ago.

• Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 3009-10-17.

• The final flight of space shuttle Atlantis (STS-135) will be completed successfully and will land with no fatalities and no major incidents. ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-14; known on 2011-07-23; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-21.

• Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 —Dick Lipton ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2021-01-01.

• By 2020, there will be a new World government. —Ray Kurzweil ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2021-01-01.

• XiXiDu will not comment or post to LW for 5 years. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-07-11; known on 2016-07-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-16.

• NGE: Asuka will die in Stage 86 or 87 of the manga. ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-07-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-07.

• Bush will commit suicide by the next 3 years. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2014-08-09.

• researches will prove that the main and first reason to global chaos is the global high dependency on technology.( I know this sounds stupid, just because human eyes can see a narrow range of energy waves) ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by puya on 2011-07-04; known on 2014-05-06.

• by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts. —Gerald Celente ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged unknown by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-29.

• ‘The complexity class BQP, bounded-error quantum polynomial time, will be shown to lie in the polynomial hierarchy.’ in 2011 —Lipton ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. —S. Jay Olshansky ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-29; known on 2100-01-01.

• Tyrion will not die in A Dance With Dragons. ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Boxo on 2011-06-29; known on 2011-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-21.

• The Islamic Republic Will collapse in 2 years in IRan. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2013-06-30.

• UTS will be one of the first 100 universities in the world by 2014. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2014-06-30.

• P!=NP, and proven by 2040 —Ken ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2041-01-01.

• P=NP, and proven by 12 December 2012 —Dick Lipton ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-12-12.

• Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.

• “Within ten years the U.S. repudiates its debt either officially or with an inflation rate of over 100% for one year” —James Miller ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01.

• “Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 10,000 babies in China to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01.

• Greece will default on its debt before 2011-09-01 00:00 UTC ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-06-19; known on 2011-09-02; judged wrong by bobpage on 2011-09-02.

• 90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 45% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.

• 50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.

• 10% chance of AI by 2018 —Shane Legg ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2018-01-01.

• “I predict that California violent crime rates should rise about 4 percent relative to the rest of the U.S. over the next few years.” — Steven D. Levitt (http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/06/01/the-supreme-court-provides-a-dissertation-topic-for-a-budding ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Pavitra on 2011-06-16; known on 2015-06-16.

• Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-09; known on 2050-01-01.

• ‘Facebook will be valued above 200B [at some point] within the next 5 years: 80% confidence’ —Arthur Breitman ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2016-06-07.

• ‘The final collapse of the European Union’ ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-18.

• ‘The vast majority of countries are democratic’ by 2055 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2055-01-01.

• Computers will die out and Artificial Intelligence will take over by 2030 – http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/blogs/work-in-progress/internet-via-contact-lenses-as-computers-die-out-20110527-1f6t0.html ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-29; known on 2030-12-15.

• nevada will be the first state to legalise google driverless car – http://www.caradvice.com.au/118506/google-driverless-car-almost-legal-in-nevada/ ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2011-06-23.

• ‘The first test launch of the Falcon Heavy’ ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2014-01-01.

• ‘Public smoking is banned across every US state’ by 2021 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known on 2021-01-01.

• The discovery of at least one new Mersenne prime will be announced in 2011 or 2012. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-05-28; known on 2013-01-01.

• “By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.

• Global circumnavigation by solar aircraft ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2015-01-01.

• “The world’s first lunar tourist” by 2016 ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2016-01-01.

• “Alzheimer’s disease is fully curable” by 2037 ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known on 2037-01-01.

• ‘Cheques are phased out in the UK’ by 2019 ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known on 2019-01-01.

• ‘Vertical farms are appearing in many cities’ by 2025 ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged unknown by bobpage on 2011-10-09.

• By 2100 it’s obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it’s actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario. ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-17; known on 2100-01-01.

• Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used. —Ray Kurzweil ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01.

• Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 14% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.

• China will launch ‘tiangong’ its first space station by the end of 2012 – http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/26/china-space-station-tiangong ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-01; known on 2012-12-16.

• “At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.” ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2150-01-01.

• ‘. The Dead Sea Scrolls managed to survive by remaining lost for a couple millennia. Now that they’ve been located and preserved in a museum, they’re probably doomed. I give them two centuries – tops.’ —Danny Hillis ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-22; known on 2195-02-16.

• I will still be alive in 2200, meaning that the software that I am — or some modification of it — will still be running then. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2200-01-01.

• Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Citizen553 on 2009-11-18; known on 2159-11-18; judged unknown by Jack on 2010-01-26.

• In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01.

• “The Long Bets Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.” ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2104-01-01.

• “I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2100-01-01.

• “China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.” ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2085-01-01.

• The Betelgeuse star will be observed to die within 60 years ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by jasticE on 2010-10-14; known on 2070-12-31.

• In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. ( 43% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2060-12-31.

• “In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant — a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid — anywhere in the world.” ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-12-31.

• “No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

• “By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth’s oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants.” ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

• “By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.” ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

• By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2050-01-01.

• “There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2040-01-01.

• “By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100.” ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2040-01-01.

• “By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.” ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.

• Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030. ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-06.

• The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2026-10-20; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• “The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public.” ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-12-07.

• Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jennifer on 2009-10-19; known on 2025-01-12.

• “By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.” ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.

• “By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.” ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.

• “By 2025, Albert Einstein’s theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.

• By 2025, there will be no 28th Amendment to the Constitution of the USA ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.

• “By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.

• ‘2023 Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

• “By 2020, historians will agree that the the start of the 21st century also marked the beginning of the “Second” or “New Renaissance.”” ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01.

• A state will try to secede from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01.

• Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.

• Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate. —Ray Kurzweil ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01.

• ’A major meteor impact occurs on the north polar ice cap. The resulting tsunamis cause considerable damage along the coasts of Greeland and Canada. The long-discussed “Project Spaceguard,” to identify and deflect potentially dangerous comets or asteroids, ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2020-01-01.

• “Acute spinal injuries are fully treatable” in 2019 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01.

• USA will be out of the Middle East by the end of 2012 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-12-31.

• ‘Construction of Hilton Orbiter Hotel begins by converting the giant shuttle tanks previously allowed to fall back to Earth.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2015-01-01.

• “Within five years the Israeli economy will have been devastated because many believe there is a high probability that an atomic bomb will someday be used against Israel” —James Miller ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2015-01-01.

• Vinay Deolalikar’s proof of P≠NP will not be accepted by the Clay Mathematics Institute. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2015-08-09.

• ‘Existing currencies are abolished. The “mega-watt-hour” becomes the universal unit of exchange.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2017-01-01.

• Gotthard Base Tunnel completed by 2018. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2018-01-01.

• The world will end in 2012 ( 18% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Martin Chase on 2009-11-17.

• ‘[I] believe that the answer to the dark matter question will be found within a decade.’ —John Ellis ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2020-01-01.

• Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• By December 2011 at least one of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy will leave the Euro —Capitol Commentary ( 19% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2011-12-01.

• “Microsoft will no longer have the majority market share in 24 months” —Beth Lynn Eicher ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2011-07-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-07.

• ‘We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months.’ —Jason Calacanis ( 50% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-16; known on 2012-11-15; judged unknown by Houshalter on 2011-05-17.

• Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 September 2011 ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-10-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-30.

• I think that kadaffi will leave for Venuzuela within two months form now (april 15 2011) ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by niekjetten on 2011-04-15; known on 2011-06-17; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-17.

• MoR update within a week ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by yurifury on 2011-05-19; known on 2011-05-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-05-26.

• 2012 is not end of this world! ( 99% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by zntneo on 2011-05-04.

• “the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.

• ‘In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Restricts cryonics activity.’ —icebrand ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• “…in the Pacific Rim at around the 6 p.m. local time hour, in each time zone, there will be a great earthquake, such as has never been in the history of the Earth.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-05-22; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-22.

• Egypt will stop the export of natural gas to Israel ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by wael on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-06-16; judged wrong by wael on 2011-06-16.

• Bin Laden is still alive! ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.

• GRRM dies before finishing A Song of Ice and Fire ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2040-01-01.

• ‘The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven [in ZFC]’ —JoshuaZ ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• ‘Ryan Williams’s recent bound on ACC circuits of NEXP will be tightened’ —JoshuaZ ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• ‘Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities’ —JoshuaZ ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• ‘At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity. For purposes of this prediction “megachurch” means a church with regular attendance of 3000 people at Sunday services.’ —JoshuaZ ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• ‘The removal of DADT by the US military will result in fewer than 300 soldiers leaving the military in protest.’ —JoshuaZ ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-08.

• ‘General AI will not be made in 2011.’ —JoshuaZ ( 97% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “California state government will dissolve in default.” ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• On 31 Dec 2011, there will be no generally available consumer-level PC, as delivered from the factory, that has a clock speed of more than 5 GHz. ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2011-01-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.

• Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 —Tachi Yamada ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2025-01-01.

• “Friends of the Earth (US) will no longer be fighting against nuclear power by December 2015.” —Stewart Brand ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-11-17; known on 2015-12-01.

• Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2022-12-31.

• Implanted RFIDs and similar cybernetics will be mainstream (popular?) by 2030 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2030-01-01.

• Wikileaks will release the AES key to their insurance file in 2011 ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-03.

• Wikileaks will release files from a major American bank in 2011 ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-01.

• The target of Wikileaks’s major American bank leak will be Bank of America ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2013-01-01.

• Oil prices at >=$120 by Jan 2012 ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

• ‘We will eradicate malaria, I believe, to the point where there are no human cases reported globally in 2035’ —Tachi Yamada ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2036-01-01.

• ‘I am optimistic that the answer to the mass question will be found within a few years, whether or not it is the mythical Higgs boson’ —John Ellis ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2020-01-01.

• ‘By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.’ —David Eagleman ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.

• ‘In 25 years, I bet there’ll be many products we’ll be allowed to buy but not see advertised – the things the government will decide we shouldn’t be consuming because of their impact on healthcare costs or the environment but that they can’t muster the po ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

• AIDS vaccine by 2035 —Tachi Yamada ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

• “All of the major candidates for the 2016 presidential election will have had samples of their DNA taken and analyzed (perhaps without the candidates’ permission.) The results of the analysis for each candidate will be widely disseminated and will influen ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2016-11-04.

• “Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by ggreer on 2010-09-30.

• “Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01.

• The model predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it. —Nate Silver ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-31.

• Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• “2061 Halley’s Comet returns – first landing by humans, And the sensational discovery of both dormant and active life forms vindicates Wickramasinghe and Hoyle’s century-old hypothesis that life exists through space.” —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2062-01-01.

• ‘2024 Infrared signals are detected coming from the centre of the Galaxy, obviously the product of a technologically advanced civilisation. All attempts to decipher them fail.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2025-01-01.

• ‘2040 The “Universal Replicator,” based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created – given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

• ‘2050 Bored in this era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search of adventure.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2051-01-01.

• ‘2057 On October 4, the centenary of Sputnik 1, the dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans on Earth, the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan, and in orbit around Venus, Neptune and Pluto.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2058-01-01.

• ‘2095 The development of a “Space Drive” – a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time – makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.’ ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2096-01-01.

• ‘African elephants are on the brink of extinction’ in 2024 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.

• ‘Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice’ by 2025 ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.

• “Within 50 years it will be the dominant paradigm within particle physics that all leptons and quarks are each composed of three pairs of two opposite types of black hole and that a pair of these black holes, when merged, form the underlying units from wh ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-11-08; known on 2060-11-07.

• “Either the Iranian regime is overthrown by popular revolution, or there is an overt airstrike against Iran by either the US or Israel, or Israel is attacked by an Iranian nuclear weapon” -dfranke ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31.

• “The current lull in the increase of the speed at which CPUs perform sequential operations comes to an end, yielding a consumer CPU that performs sequential integer arithmetic operations 4x as quickly as a modern 3GHz Xeon” —dfranke ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31.

• The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 31% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )

  Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.

• Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 16% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-12-08; known on 2019-12-08.

• The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Jack on 2009-10-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 7% confidence; 30 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged unknown by ledflyd on 2009-11-16.

• Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 17% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by komponisto on 2010-09-29.

• Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-16; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by komponisto on 2010-09-29.

• “Christopher Hitchens will publicly confess his sins to God, however he finds Him between now and the time of his passing, and accept Christ as his Lord, Savior and pathway to God. He will do this in a meaningful rather than a flippant, facetious or hyp ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-16.