Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 56% | 68% | 78% | 82% | 89% | 93% | |
| Sample Size | 369 | 258 | 277 | 267 | 382 | 98 | 1651 |
Most recent predictions by JoshuaZ
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The next elected President of the United States will be either a Republican or a Democrat. ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known in 28 days.
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Melania or Donald Trump to file for divorce or separation, or to be publicly separated by January 15th , 2017 ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ 5 days ago; known on 2017-01-15.
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Hillary Clinton wins all 112 electoral votes of the Northeast (New England, NY, NJ, DE, PA, MD, DC). ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by brunoparga on 2016-09-08; known in 25 days.
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Hillary Clinton will win the United States' Presidential race ( 66% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BigRaims on 2016-08-16; known in 24 days.
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If the Republican convention goes to the second ballot, Ted Cruz will secure the nomination ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-16; known on 2016-08-01.
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Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-24; known on 2021-01-01.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Marco Rubio to be the Republican nominee in 2016. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-07-20; judged wrong by brunoparga on 2016-07-20.
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Conditional on none of Cruz, Walker or Paul becoming the Republican nominee, Psimoe will still end up saying they will vote for the nominee. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-07-25.
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AlphaGo will win 5-0 against Ke Jie. ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-12-16.
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Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election 2016 ( 66% confidence; 22 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known in 24 days.
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Trump wins the presidential election 2016 ( 37% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known in 24 days.
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Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.
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Conditional on Bill O'Reilly's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder [NPD]. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.
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Prime minister Boris Johnson ( 40% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged unknown by splorridge on 2016-07-14.
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Scotland will have another independence referendum and the result will be YES. ( 48% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-03-23; known on 2020-01-01.
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Trump goes it alone, does not appoint a VP ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by bobpage on 2016-07-14.
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Bernie Sanders endorses Hillary Clinton for President ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-06-08; known in 17 days; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.
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Conditional on Hillary Clinton's genome being sequenced, she will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-07; known on 2066-06-07.
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Donald Trump to win the US Presidential election with at least 302 electoral votes. ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-06-05; known in 25 days.
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There will be at least one presidential debate in 2016 that both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump participate in ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by bobpage on 2016-06-04; known in 24 days; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-09.
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Noam Tanner will commit to voting for Hillary by October 1. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-06-03; known 14 days ago; judged wrong by JoshuaZ 7 days ago.
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Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next elected President ( 90% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by bobpage on 2016-06-01; known in 26 days.
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Clint Eastwood Trump's VP Pick ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-28; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by bobpage on 2016-07-14.
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Bernie Sanders chooses Carly Fiorina as VP ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-28; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-09-03.
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A confirmed dip of at least 10% in the brightness of Tabby's Star (KIC 8462852) will be observed. ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-05-27; known on 2019-06-01.
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I am banned from Predictionbook ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-23; known on 2021-05-22.
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A democrat wins New York in the 2016 general presidential election. ( 90% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-12-01.
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Hilary wins California democratic primary. ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-06-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20.
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Humanity still a thing in 2036 ( 87% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-13; known on 2036-12-31.
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Paul Ryan presides over the 2016 Republican Convention ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-13; known on 2016-08-01; judged right by brunoparga on 2016-07-20.
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Trump to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-11-16.
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Clinton to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-11-16.
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Trump will take fewer than 210 electoral votes in 2016 election. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-10; known on 2017-01-16.
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Trump will take fewer than 170 electoral votes in 2016 election. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-10; known on 2017-01-16.
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FBI/CIA orchestrated “massive false flag tragedy” happens 6+/-1 days after new US president is elected ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-08; known on 2017-02-01.
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President Trump appoints Ron Paul as Secretary of State ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-08; known on 2017-02-01.
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All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-07; known on 2021-01-01.
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Trump's VP pick is not white (counting hispanic as non-white). ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by bobpage on 2016-07-14.
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Trump's VP pick is a woman. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by bobpage on 2016-07-14.
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Trump's VP pick is not a career politician (i.e. is a businessperson, celebrity, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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Trump publicly and seriously offers VP position to Bernie Sanders and/or chooses Bernie Sanders as VP ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known in 17 days; judged wrong by bobpage on 2016-07-14.
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Craig Wright will prove he is Satoshi Nakamoto, where proof is defined as: Movement of Bitcoins from first 11 blocks OR signing a statement with key from block 0, mentioning Craig Wright by name ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mrmrpotatohead on 2016-05-04; known on 2017-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders will win 60-70% of the California primary vote ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by docskalski on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-06-08; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-08.
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Sometime in 2020, Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoins suddenly start to move again, having not moved until 2020. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2021-01-01.
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Trump wins Indiana ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-02; known on 2016-05-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-05-04.
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Civil War in Venezuela ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-01; known on 2018-01-01.
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If TRUMP gets 1237 before convention the GOP elites will do a news conference with somber tone explaining why with all the dangers our country faces they can not in good judgement allow him to be the nominee and deny him the nomination ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by julietales22 on 2016-05-01; known on 2016-07-16; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-16.
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A supernova in the Miky Way will first be detected by it's neutrino and gravitational wave emission, prior to it's brightening allowing observation by optical telescopes. ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by AdamSmith on 2016-04-30; known on 2025-01-01.
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SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2019. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2019-01-01.
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First physical sample returned from a Near Earth Asteroid. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2025-06-22.
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More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. ( 30% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2024-12-31.
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Paul Ryan faces the democratic nominee in the 2016 US presidential election. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-20; known on 2016-07-20; judged wrong by brunoparga on 2016-07-20.
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“President HRC will face an attempt by a Republican Congress to cut her pay.” ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-19; known on 2020-12-01.
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1 year continuous human habitation of the moon ( 17% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-18; known on 2025-06-22.
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US Newspaperocalypse ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-16; known on 2018-01-01.
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Civil war in Saudi Arabia ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01.
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Texas votes Democratic in 2016 presidential election. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-04-14; known on 2017-01-16.
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2016 New York Democratic Primary isn't a blowout (i.e. margin of victory is < 15%) ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-14; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-21.
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Clathrate gun fires ( rapid ( 1 C / year or more ) increase in global mean temp for 5 years attributed to clathrate methane deposit release) ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-13; known on 2040-01-01.
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On condition of Kim Jung Un being removed, North Korea radically opens up country, peacefully merges with world system ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-01.
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Kim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-01.
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Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will the Republican and Democratic parties combined have less than 96% of members of each of the House, Senate, governors and control of legislative chambers (non-partisan ones excluded). ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by brunoparga on 2016-04-09; known on 2037-12-31.
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Kasich does not become the Republican nominee ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-10; known on 2016-08-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-21.
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Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will a person elected or otherwise selected by a political party, other than the Republican and Democratic parties, hold the office of President of the United States. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by brunoparga on 2016-04-09; known on 2037-12-31.
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The Libertarian Party presidential candidate will get less than 2% of the national popular vote in November. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by brunoparga on 2016-04-09; known in 26 days.
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David Cameron will resign as PM due to the Panama Papers scandal in the next two weeks. ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-08; known on 2016-04-22; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-04-22.
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Conditional on the Panama Papers being leaked by a US Govt operation, the primary reason for the leak would be to show ordinary Russians the sheer corruption within the Power Vertical. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-04-07; known on 2066-04-07.
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Trump wins New York primary ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-06; known on 2016-04-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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Hilary wins New York primary ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-06; known on 2016-04-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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Ted Cruz to gain a majority of the delegates from the Wisconsin primary. ( 84% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-06; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-06.
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Donald Trumps Wins New York Republican Primary 2016 ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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Hillary Clinton Wins New York Democratic Primary 2016 ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-20; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-04-20.
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Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be generally agreed upon to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-04-04; known on 2066-04-05.
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Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal before year end. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-03; known on 2017-01-01.
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It will be exposed that a current presidential candidate was involved in a sex scandal by year end. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-03; known on 2017-01-01.
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SpaceX to successfully land the first stage on a droneship in the CRS-8 launch. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-01; known on 2016-04-25; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-08.
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Utah will go to somebody other than the GOP nominee in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-30; known on 2016-12-16.
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The lack of magical twins in the School in Magic series will end up being a plot point in the next book. ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20; known on 2017-01-01.
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No new elementary particles to be discovered before December 20, 2016 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-15.
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IRNSS satellite navigation constellation will be complete by July. 6/7 Satellites already launched. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27; known on 2016-07-16; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-05-06.
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A male friend of mine will marry a woman, only to have it revealed later that she's transitioning to being a man ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-25; known on 2023-01-01.
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Tablet market continues to decline for at least 2 of the next 4 fiscal quarters. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2017-03-25.
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Trump names his running mate before GOP convention. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-24; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2016-07-17.
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House of Representatives selects next POTUS. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-24; known on 2017-01-16.
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LambdaConf will uninvite Curtis Yarvin before the conference begins ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bobpage on 2016-03-24; known on 2016-05-24; judged wrong by bobpage on 2016-05-24.
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AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023 ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.
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UMaine Machias will offer me a non-tenure track lecture position before April 2. ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-04-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-03.
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UMaine Machias will offer me a tenure track position before April 2. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-04-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-03.
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AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2019 ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2019-01-01.
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Falcon Heavy test flight by end of 2017 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2018-01-01.
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Falcon Heavy test flight by January 15, 2017 ( 54% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2017-01-16.
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Falcon Heavy test flight by November 30, 2016 ( 32% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-12-01.
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Sydney from Grrlpower will get another level-up before March 22, 2017 (real time). ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2017-03-23.
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If nominated, Trump will win zero electoral votes. ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-22; known on 2017-02-02.
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Alibaba will surpass Walmart as world's No1 retailer measured in gross merchandise volume. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-22; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-04-26.
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In 2019, I’ll be able to get a pizza delivered to my house by a robot. ( 42% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2019-12-31.
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For snow-related reasons I will be told to work from home on Monday. ( 88% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2016-03-21; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-21.
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USA economy's long-run rate of growth of per-capita real GDP over the next 25 years will be 0.9% due to demography, education, inequality, and the federal debt —Robert J Gordon Stanley G. Harris Professor,Social Sciences Northwestern University. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-19; known on 2041-12-25.
