Predictions by Ken

• By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-04-08; known on 2051-01-01.

• Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 89% confidence; 21 wagers )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07.

• George Zimmerman will be convicted of murder or manslaughter for the shooting of Trayvon Martin before 2015. ( 44% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• Santorum won’t be a top 3 candidate in 2016 republican primary (measured by returns in South Carolina primary) ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-11; known on 2016-02-15.

• >=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-12.

• HP MoR: story completed during Harry’s first year of Hogwarts ( 69% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 65% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014. ( 52% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2014-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013. ( 12% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: Methods of Rationality or a derivative work wins a Hugo Award in or before 2016. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2017-01-01.

• I will be murdered during my stay in Mexico City. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.

• I will receive <10 items of anonymous feedback on my form. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-27; known on 2012-01-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-27.

• The mens’ rights movement will be mentioned by name in a Time or Newsweek article sometime during 2012. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson ( 98% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07.

• HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.

• No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• “Newt Gingrich to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012.” -Intrade ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-28; known on 2012-12-31.

• Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 6% confidence; 17 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-10.

• ‘Most phone calls are made via the Internet’ in 2014 ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01.

• “Within ten years the U.S. repudiates its debt either officially or with an inflation rate of over 100% for one year” —James Miller ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01.

• “By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world’s number 1 search engine.” —Yan Bashkin ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-30; known on 2050-01-01.

• Appeals court in Perugia will acquit Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito of the murder of Meredith Kercher. ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by komponisto on 2010-09-29; known on 2011-10-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-03.

• A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01.

• “Within ten years there will be another $200 billion+ Wall Street Bailout” —James Miller ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01.

• A state will try to secede from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• China will land a man on Mars by 2050. ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

• “No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

• “Within a decade Wal-Mart (WMT) shares cease to be listed on the NYSE as a result bankruptcy, being taken over/private, or being delisted by the exchange.” ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2016-12-31.

• “Steve Jobs will be nominated for Presdident of the United States, by one of the two major political parties in 2012.” ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-06.

• “By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G’s) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world’s GDP.” ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2024-12-31.

• ‘Google will buy Twitter’ in 2011 —Chris O’Brien ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-01.

• Cannabis will be legalised within Australia by 2012 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.

• ‘Existing currencies are abolished. The “mega-watt-hour” becomes the universal unit of exchange.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2017-01-01.

• A professional athlete will not voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2041-01-01.

• GJP: the Saudi monarchy continue to rule Saudi Arabia as of March 1, 2012 ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-03-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-03-01.

• “Julia Gillard to no longer be Prime Minister of Australia before midnight ET 30 Sep 2011” (excluding death) —Intrade ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-05; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.

• The “Counterexamples to Relativity” page will still exist on Conservapedia in one year ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04.

• Usain Bolt will leave a positive doping test before or during the London Olympics ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-09-03; known on 2012-09-03.

• “King Abdullah to no longer be head of government in Saudi Arabia before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10.

• “Hillary Clinton to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01.

• There will be a major terrorist attack (>= 60 deaths) between 2011-09-10 20:00 UTC and 2011-09-12 06:00 UTC anywhere in the world except Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Iraq. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-09-10; known on 2011-09-12; judged wrong by bobpage on 2011-09-12.

• “By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany.” ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-01-01.

• “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.” ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2017-01-31.

• Ron Paul will be dead by 2017. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2017-01-01.

• 2013-2014: Chinese GDP growth <8% —Michael Pettis ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2015-01-01.

• Bitcoin stays >= $60 for at least 72 hours, any time before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01.

• “Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 12000 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by faws on 2012-01-01.

• “Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 37% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.

• A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 94% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Morendil on 2011-11-03.

• “Hamas accepts Israel’s right to exist before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.

• Iphone 5 shape is same as Iphone 4, the onlything different is the antenna will change a bit! ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-02; known on 2012-03-16.

• The US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15 ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-15.

• By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2035-01-01.

• By 2020, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2020-01-01.

• By 2025, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2025-01-01.

• The Richard Dawkins article on Conservapedia will in one year have in its stable form a picture of at least one of Hitler, Stalin, or Lenin ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04.

• No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 83% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by bobpage on 2011-10-02.

• GJP: Kim Jong-Il or his designated successor to be in charge of North Korea as of December 31, 2012 ( 87% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-12-31.

• AOL & Yahoo to merge by 2013. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01.

• “Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.