Predictions by Konkvistador

• The mens’ rights movement will be mentioned by name in a Time or Newsweek article sometime during 2012. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• If Obama is re-elected, then a white male will go on a “shooting spree” and the shooter will mention the “political climate” as a motivating factor. If the antecedent proposition is false, then this prediction will be withdrawn. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• In 10 years, mainland China’s TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2021-12-28.

• North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. —Scott Sumner ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-03; known on 2061-01-01.

• In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Konkvistador on 2011-10-24; known on 2039-01-01.

• Steve Jobs’ brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-10-21; known on 2070-01-01.

• I will abstain from sexual activity (porn, masturbation, orgasm) until January 31st, 2012. ( 45% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-01-31.

• ‘At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity. For purposes of this prediction “megachurch” means a church with regular attendance of 3000 people at Sunday services.’ —JoshuaZ ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• The US Federal Reserve is not audited by the US government in 2011. —Kevin ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• ‘Continuing riots in major European cities over the imposition of austerity measures: 80%.’ —Skatche ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01.

• GRRM dies before finishing A Song of Ice and Fire ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2040-01-01.

• ‘Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%’ —taw ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2021-01-01.

• By 2020, one of Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, George W. Bush, Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton, Richard Myers, or Peter Pace will state he had advanced knowledge of the 9/11 attacks or helped plan those attacks. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01.

• GJP: Kim Jong-Il or his designated successor to be in charge of North Korea as of December 31, 2012 ( 87% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-12-31.

• Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 6% confidence; 17 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-10.

• No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 83% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by bobpage on 2011-10-02.

• Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 47% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.

• The current criteria for awarding the “Poseidon award” offered by the seastead insitute, will be met by someone by 2015. ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Konkvistador on 2011-08-30; known on 2016-01-01.

• Robin Hanson’s brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 42% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.

• “In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones” —Marc Andreessen ( 75% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2021-08-20.

• ‘We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months.’ —Jason Calacanis ( 50% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-16; known on 2012-11-15; judged unknown by Houshalter on 2011-05-17.

• The US Democratic Party fragments before the 2016 primary season. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-08-03; known on 2016-01-16.

• Terence Tao will solve the Clay Institute problem on the Navier-Stokes equation (or prove it cannot be done) within the next five years. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-08-05; known on 2016-08-05.

• Dow Jones below 10,000 at end of year. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• Half-Life 3 announced by Valve in 2011. —Game Informer ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

• Facebook will be less visitors in 2011 ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Laus_CB on 2011-01-04; known on 2011-11-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-01.

• This summer in North hemisphere will be the hottest weather ever. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Eunseo on 2011-04-11; known on 2011-09-16; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-09-18.

• We will be using a cloud based rendering solution for animations in under 2 months ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-09-02; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-09-02.

• The US dept ceiling will be raised by August 2 ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-15; known on 2011-08-02; judged right by bobpage on 2011-08-02.

• Spot gold price will touch at least $2000 by December 31, 2012. ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers )

  Created by dakyne on 2011-07-16; known on 2013-01-01.

• the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. —S. Jay Olshansky ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-29; known on 2100-01-01.

• “The Internet will become overloaded, causing brownouts and then outright gridlock. From 2012, PCs and laptops are likely to operate at a much reduced speed, rendering the internet an “unreliable toy” —Ted Ritter ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known in 18 days.

• Assuming a 2nd Obama term, “The result will be widely attributed to an improving economy (in the media and in polls and whether or not the economy actually improves)” —Jack ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2012-10-20.

• Inflation in US will be higher that 7% by 2012 ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by borisbrev on 2009-11-04; known on 2012-12-16.

• Oil prices at >=$120 by Jan 2012 ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

• Fidel Castro will not die in 2011 ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• Gaddafi will not be in power in Libya beyond 2011. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by maxdemian on 2011-03-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-21.

• “By 2012, scientists will have announced a cure for breast cancer and mastectomies will have become almost obsolete” ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• ‘Kim Jong Il steps down or dies this year’ —scav ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-19.

• by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts. —Gerald Celente ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• There will be an earthquake in California that results in at least 1000 human deaths before 2012. ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• ‘In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Restricts cryonics activity.’ —icebrand ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• ‘In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Protects cryonics patients.’ —icebrand ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-01-01.

• ‘SpaceX will successfully complete orbit-matching and docking with the International Space Station’ —Sketerpot ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• ‘Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities’ —JoshuaZ ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• 3D Televisions using a technology that doesn’t require expensive glasses to view in 3D will outsell those that do require such glasses by the end of 2011 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by scav on 2011-01-05; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

• By December 2011 at least one of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy will leave the Euro —Capitol Commentary ( 19% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2011-12-01.

• Barack Obama will win reelection. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by TheHumanite on 2011-06-06; known on 2012-11-03.

• By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Konkvistador on 2011-07-21; known on 2051-02-01.

• 90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 45% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.

• 10% chance of AI by 2018 —Shane Legg ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2018-01-01.

• 50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.

• “The fertility rate in China drops below the replacement level, and nothing the government can do can get Chinese couples to have more than 1.5 kids each.” ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01.

• “within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.” —Dennis Mangan ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-07-21; known on 2021-01-01.

• Between January and June 2017 (inclusive), I will enter text into my computers and the majority of this text will be entered using a physical keyboard with physical buttons that depress at least 2.5mm ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-07-21; known on 2017-07-01.

• By 2061, India will be the world’s largest economy —Scott Sumner ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-07-10; known on 2061-01-01; judged unknown by Konkvistador on 2011-07-21.

• In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. ( 43% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2060-12-31.