Statistics
| Predicted Certainty | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Certainty | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 67% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
Predictions by Larks
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PredictionBook will be successful in years to come ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide 3 months ago; known 3 months ago.
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Will this prediction have an average prediction of less than 50%? (The only way to be right is if more people predict the opposite of you) ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JFE 2 months ago; known in 3 months.
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Bank of England Base rate will be 1% or less on 31 December 2010 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by koenfucius about 1 month ago; known in 3 months.
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I will sign up for cryonics by December 31st 2010 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Larks about 1 month ago; known in 3 months.
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We will not have all American combat troops out of Iraq by next October. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jes5199 10 months ago; known in 22 days; judged unknown by freyley 10 months ago.
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Germany will be governed by a CDU + FDP coalition during april, may, and june of 2010. ( 90% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Drahflow 10 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged right by JFE 2 months ago.
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I will pass my Mods ( 99% confidence )
Created by Larks 10 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged right by Larks about 1 month ago.
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I will become the Maths & Philosophy MURC representative at the next MURC meeting ( 95% confidence )
Created by Larks 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by Larks 10 months ago.
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Real soon now, there will be some public debate about whether PredictionBook is better suited to deal with personal-life type events or global-public-interest type events ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jes5199 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by jes5199 10 months ago.
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This site will have a feature to hide other people’s prediction results until after one has voted. This will be implemented at most within two weeks. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kess3r 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by anonym 9 months ago.
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Created by Larks 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by Larks 10 months ago.
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Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TheScholar 10 months ago; known in over 999 years.
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A federal government run health insurance plan will not be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InTrade 11 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged wrong by gwern about 1 month ago.
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Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by InTrade 11 months ago; known in over 2 years; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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Civil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by max 11 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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By January 1, 2011 one or more of the following will happen (1) Israel will launch a military attack against Iran, (2) The U.S. will launch a military attack against Iran or (3) a significant number of countries will ban the sale of gasoline to Iran. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JamesMiller 10 months ago; known in 3 months.
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Labour party will not win next UK General Election ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by gwern about 1 month ago.
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US Unemployment Rate in Dec 2009 will be greater than 10.00% ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged wrong by Matt 7 months ago.
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Iran’s current regime will be collapse within the next ten years. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kess3r 10 months ago; known in over 9 years.
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The President of the Czech Republic will sign the Lisbon Treaty before the end of June, 2010. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged right by Cyan 10 months ago.
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One year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of Goldman Sacks. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JamesMiller 10 months ago; known in over 6 years.
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This website’s statistics will show that people pick percentages with a ‘2’ in them anomalously often- presumably due to priming from the ‘my 2 cents’ ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Larks 10 months ago; known 7 months ago; judged wrong by Larks 7 months ago.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 8% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in over 5 years; judged unknown by ledflyd 9 months ago.
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In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ChristianKl 10 months ago; known in over 50 years.
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The creators of this site will allow some sort of lesswrong.com ideology to leak into the behavior of this site and undermine an otherwise useful gadget. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by jes5199 10 months ago; known in about 1 month; judged unknown by Matt 10 months ago.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 83% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by komponisto 10 months ago; known in over 9 years; judged unknown by Jack 9 months ago.
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Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TheScholar 10 months ago; known in over 19 years; judged unknown by Jack 9 months ago.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 72% confidence; 37 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by MBlume 11 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by bogdanb 9 months ago.
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Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jonii 11 months ago; known in over 6 years; judged unknown by jasticE 10 months ago.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 100% confidence; 25 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb 10 months ago; known in about 1 month; judged unknown by Morendil 10 months ago.
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In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 37% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ChristianKl 10 months ago; known in over 60 years.