Predictions by Morendil

• GJP: #1088 Will Japan commence parliamentary elections before 1 April 2012? ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• Grognor (http://lesswrong.com/user/Grognor) will reach 1000 karma on LessWrong by September 27, 2012, one year after his first comment. ( 88% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-09-27; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-13.

• GJP: #1083 Will Marine LePen cease to be a candidate for President of France before 10 April 2012? ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-10.

• “There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 21 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

• “No IPO for Facebook” —Cringely ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.

• USD worth over 3 EUR ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21.

• Nicolas Sarkozy to be elected President of France in 2012 —Intrade ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by gwern 13 days ago.

• France’s Sarkozy to run for presidency. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Morendil on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Morendil on 2012-02-15.

• No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• “Leprechauns” (http://leanpub.com/leprechauns) will top the $720 in sales suggested by pre-publication declarations of interest (60 interested readers at an average of $12), within two weeks. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Morendil on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by Morendil on 2012-01-24.

• Within 5 years, 80% of the global population will own at least one mobile computing device (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-digital-divide-will-cease-to-exist.html) ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Morendil on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20.

• Within 5 years, “mind reading” (BCI) will have progressed to the point where you can control an external device, e.g. place a call to a contact just by thinking it. (IBM’s “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-mind-reading-is-no- ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Morendil on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20.

• Within 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html) ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Morendil on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20.

• In 5 years parasitic power collection will have become a significant market (IBM “5 in 5” http://ibmresearchnews.blogspot.com/2011/12/ibm-5-in-5-creating-energy-from.html) – for concreteness take “significant” to be $1Bn ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Morendil on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20.

• Feature phones are going to vanish out of the developed world and over the course of five years they’ll vanish out of the developing world. — Marc Andreessen in http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57345138-93/marc-andreessen-predictions-for-2012-and-beyond/ ( 40% confidence; 4 comments )

  Created by Morendil on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20.

• Larry King’s brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-12-04; known on 2070-01-01.

• The US$ will touch parity with the Euro (1€=1US$) before the end of 2012 ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by herb on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-12-31.

• gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC) ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

• I will be able to complete 100 good-form push ups in 6 weeks’ time following the program at hundredpushups.com. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-04; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.

• The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2039-12-15.

• Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than or equal to 75%. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-01-01.

• Lady Gaga will launch her next tour in Omaha, NE. ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-29.

• By 2050, more tobacco will be utilized in the biofuel industry than in the cigar & cigarette industry. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2050-01-01.

• Germany will not leave Euro by end of 2012 ( 93% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by procran on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2012-01-01.

• Most of the modules in Ruby’s “stdlib” will be packaged and referenced as gems in release 2.0. (See http://bit.ly/uIRu4n) ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Morendil on 2011-11-07; known on 2013-06-16.

• An official 2.0 release of the Ruby language will be available on or before February 24, 2013. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Morendil on 2011-11-07; known on 2013-02-24.

• The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 100% confidence; 41 wagers; 20 comments )

  Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-11-06.

• Hypothes.is kickstarter project gets fully funded (see http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/dwhly/1239089754) ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Morendil on 2011-11-06; known on 2011-11-13; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-13.

• No Facebook IPO in 2011 —Ben Parr ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by bobpage on 2012-01-03.

• Silver spot price will touch $50 or higher by December 31, 2012. ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by dakyne on 2011-07-14; known on 2013-01-01.

• Spot gold price will touch at least $2000 by December 31, 2012. ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers )

  Created by dakyne on 2011-07-16; known on 2013-01-01.

• 2012 is not end of this world! ( 99% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by zntneo on 2011-05-04.

• ‘Facebook will have an IPO within 2 years: 80% confidence’ —Arthur Breitman ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2013-06-07; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-02.

• “THE world?s slowest concert, which began on September 5, 2001 and which is scheduled to take 639 years, will still be performed at its half-time interval, wich is planned for the year 2319.” ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2319-01-01.

• Apple will release the iPhone 5 and it will be available in white in 2011. ( 51% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

• Google will sell all hardware developing and producing parts of Motorola Mobile before 1. Jan 2012 ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-12-31.

• “I will continue to post on LW at least once a month next year” —magfrump ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “Carry-on luggage on US airlines will be reduced to a single handbag that inspectors can search thoroughly, in 2010 or 2011.” —Phil Goetz ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-01.

• 3D Televisions using a technology that doesn’t require expensive glasses to view in 3D will outsell those that do require such glasses by the end of 2011 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by scav on 2011-01-05; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

• Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 December 2011 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-21.

• At least one current member will drop out of the Euro. ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by faws on 2011-12-17.

• By December 2011 at least one of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy will leave the Euro —Capitol Commentary ( 19% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2011-12-01.

• There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 37% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.

• A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 94% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Morendil on 2011-11-03.

• “the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.

• Iphone 5 shape is same as Iphone 4, the onlything different is the antenna will change a bit! ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-02; known on 2012-03-16.

• An e-reader device incorporating an “electrowetting” display (irrespective of maker) will clear FCC approval, or be available from online stores in US or EU, by the next CES show. ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Morendil on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by Morendil on 2012-01-10.

• Barack Obama will be shot by American white-supremist extremists within the next two weeks ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-03-14; judged wrong by Kyrisch on 2010-03-08.

• The “LessWrong Singularity article” will be accepted for publication. http://lesswrong.com/lw/1fz/a_less_wrong_singularity_article/ ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by Pavitra on 2009-11-25; known on 2010-03-15; judged wrong by Morendil on 2010-03-17.

• Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01.

• There will be a flood event that kills more than 200 people between 14 October and 14 November 2009. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-11-14; judged wrong by Arenamontanus on 2009-11-17.

• Neither Eliezer nor Robin will have more than 10 public predictions recorded before Monday ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-18; judged right by Matt on 2009-10-18.

• The sun will not become a nova during this year. ( 100% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-14.

• General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 100% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.

• The sun will rise tomorrow morning ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by uninverted on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-15; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-17.