Statistics
| Predicted Certainty | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Certainty | 0% | 33% | 0% | 50% | 100% | 100% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
Predictions by Morendil
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Barack Obama will be shot by American white-supremist extremists within the next two weeks ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by d403 6 months ago; known 5 months ago; judged wrong by Kyrisch 6 months ago.
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The “LessWrong Singularity article” will be accepted for publication. http://lesswrong.com/lw/1fz/a_less_wrong_singularity_article/ ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Pavitra 9 months ago; known 5 months ago; judged wrong by Morendil 5 months ago.
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Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Rain 9 months ago; known in over 89 years.
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There will be a flood event that kills more than 200 people between 14 October and 14 November 2009. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus 10 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged wrong by Arenamontanus 9 months ago.
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Neither Eliezer nor Robin will have more than 10 public predictions recorded before Monday ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged right by Matt 10 months ago.
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The sun will not become a nova during this year. ( 100% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bogdanb 10 months ago; known in about 1 month; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 100% confidence; 25 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb 10 months ago; known in about 1 month; judged unknown by Morendil 9 months ago.
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The sun will rise tomorrow morning ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by uninverted 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged right by anonym 10 months ago.