Predictions by Mqrius

• My friend’s house will be connected to fiberglass internet before 2013. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-31; known on 2013-01-01.

• The future of the Euro: Germany / Netherlands abandon Euro and form new currency / currencies. Remaining countries retain the Euro as a currency of the smaller Euro zone, without Germany. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16.

• The bitcoin protocol will have a fatal weakness that is discovered, leading to the crash of the bitcoin economy. End of year prediction. ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by kiba on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-12-30.

• GJP: #1056 Will €1 Euro buy less than $1.20 US dollars at any point before 1 January 2013? ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2013-01-01.

• USD worth over 3 EUR ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21.

• I will have read “Predictably Irrational” by January 15, 2012. ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-01-15; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-01-14.

• No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

• The Bitcoin price will hit 8 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

• The Bitcoin price will hit 7 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by bobpage on 2012-01-06.

• The Bitcoin price will hit 6 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 81% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by bobpage on 2012-01-05.

• HP MoR: ‘I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100’ —shminux ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2014-01-01.

• “one of the top 5 biggest bitcoin sites will be hacked and the hacker will profit by gaining lots of bitcoins” —kiba ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2013-01-01.

• The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 100% confidence; 41 wagers; 20 comments )

  Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-11-06.

• The Bitcoin price will hit 5 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by Mqrius on 2012-01-01.

• The Bitcoin price will hit 5 $/฿ in December 2011. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Mqrius on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Mqrius on 2012-01-01.

• The Bitcoin price will hit 4 $/฿ in December 2011. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by Mqrius on 2011-12-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Mqrius on 2011-12-20.

• Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-01.

• I will complete all of the chapter 5 exercises in Introduction to JAVA Programming by 2011-12-03. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-06.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 65% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013. ( 12% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014. ( 52% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2014-01-01.

• I will predict this prediction accurately. ( 100% confidence )

  Created by Mqrius on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-11-17; judged right by Mqrius on 2011-11-17.