Predictions by NathanMcKnight

• By 2020, a single-word term for additive fabrication technology will replace “3D printing” in the media. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-03; known on 2020-01-01.

• By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01.

• By 2050, body modification enthusiasts will have printed custom body augmentations through 3D printing technology. ( 89% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-31; known on 2050-01-01.

• By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-31; known on 2025-01-01.

• “There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 21 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

• The first functional, 3D printed television/monitor screen will be demonstrated by 2020. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-30; known on 2020-01-01.

• The first 3D printer virus(es) will be reported before the end of 2012. ( 90% confidence; 5 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-30; known on 2013-01-01.

• “Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-25.

• “Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 South Carolina Primary” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-01-28; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-22.

• “[Hillary] Clinton will be Obama’s running mate” ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-12-10; known on 2012-09-03.

• By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.

• By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be deciphered and found to be written in a minority language or an Italian dialect still spoken in Italy today. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.

• By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-23; known on 2050-01-01.

• Egypt will go throw another war with Isreal ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by ahmedwael on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-10; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-10.

• The USA will refuse again to commit to new Emmissions Regulations at COP17 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by general on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.

• The ISS will continue to have crew continuously through the end of November ( 84% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-30; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-01.

• Obama will approve the Keystone XL pipeline project. ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by Øx on 2011-12-05.

• US Supercommittee to publish >=$1.5t deficit reduction by midnight 23 November 2011 ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-19; known on 2011-11-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.

• Truly “Pilotless” air travel will be the standard in 2050. ( 71% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2050-12-16.

• The SCOTUS ruling on the Obama administration’s health care reform law will be a 5-4 decision. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-07-01.

• Average global temperature will be higher for 2011 than 2010. ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.

• At least one current member will drop out of the Euro. ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by faws on 2011-12-17.

• Germany will not leave Euro by end of 2012 ( 93% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by procran on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2012-01-01.

• Batteries charged by ambient radio waves will be mass marketed by 2020. ( 80% confidence )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.

• By 2050, more tobacco will be utilized in the biofuel industry than in the cigar & cigarette industry. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2050-01-01.

• The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged unknown by Houshalter on 2010-06-26.

• Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• At least one presidential debate of 2012 will include a question about “anti-capitalism”. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-07.

• For my 2012 PB predictions, my actual accuracy will be at least 10% higher than the average certainty assigned to those predictions by other users. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01.

• Within two years, at least one exoplanet less than 3 Earth masses will be discovered and verified orbiting within the habitable zone of its star. (Habitable zone=liquid water likely) ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-11-12.

• By 2025, water vapor will be detected in the atmosphere of at least one free-floating “rogue planet”. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

• “Silvio Berlusconi to announce his resignation before midnight ET 30 Nov 2011” —Intrade ( 67% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12.

• Greece Will be Bankrupt within 6 months from today ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by niekjetten on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-01.

• Occupy Wall Street (NYC) will continue at least 30 more days. ( 80% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by torekp on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-23.

• “I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, fo ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2100-01-01.

• Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged unknown by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-29.

• The Republicans to control the House of Representatives after 2012 Congressional Elections – Intrade ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01.

• By 2025, at least one object larger than Mars will be discovered within 4 lightyears of our Solar System. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

• At the end of 2012, the Poincaré conjecture will remain the only solved Millennium Prize Problem. ( 93% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01.

• Within a month, the British High Court will rule in favor of the journal Nature in the libel case brought against it by Professor Mohamed El Naschie. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-13; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2011-12-14.

• By the end of this month, the Russian Phobos-Grunt interplanetary probe will be destroyed. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-01.

• By 2025, the GOP’s current libertarian/conservative coalition will no longer be united under one party. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

• In 2012, Democrats will make gains in both the House and Senate, but will fail to wrest control of the Senate from the GOP. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-08.

• Obama will be favored to win the election by Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Markets (both vote share and winner take all) within a few days of tonight’s Republican debate. ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-17; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-13.

• By 2016, Legislation will have been introduced (not necessarily passed) banning home solar generation on grounds of safety. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by ARFisk on 2011-11-12; known on 2016-11-12.

• The desktop and laptop computer industry will be made obsolete by modular smart phones or mobile devices by 2020. E.g., a smart phone capable of wirelessly interfacing with a keyboard, mouse, and monitor. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.

• Greece will quit euro ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by sucrenoir on 2011-11-04; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-19.

• If Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate in the 2012 presidential election, then he will receive greater than 10% of the popular vote. ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07.

• At least two first-term Republican congressmen/congresswomen elected in 2010 will be defeated by their Democratic rivals in 2012. ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-08.

• “3D printing” will be a multi-billion dollar industry by 2021. ( 71% confidence; 14 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2021-01-01.

• Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.

• The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 72% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01.

• The EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011. ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Fledi on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-04.

• President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 33% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged unknown by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-04.

• “By the year 2020 solar electricity will be as cheap or cheaper than that produced by fossil fuels.” ( 68% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01.

• By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using “3D printing” technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

• By 2025, the remains of several prehistoric human settlements will be discovered underwater by archaeologists. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

• By 2112, deep sea exploration will reveal a hitherto unknown species of living trilobite. ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2112-01-01.

• By November 2015, Howard Dean will form an exploratory committee to float his name for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-11-01.

• The US Democratic Party fragments before the 2016 primary season. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-08-03; known on 2016-01-16.

• A third-party or independent candidate running to the right of the Republican nominee will garner at least 1% of the vote in at least one state in the 2012 U.S. presidential election. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-07.

• Synthetic meat will be mass-marketed by 2020. ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.

• In 2012, at least one U.S. television station will air an advertisement attacking Mitt Romney by making reference to his Mormonism. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-12-31.

• A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

• In 2020, every single one of the 5 tallest buildings in the world will be located in China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01.

• The technology to render a human effectively invisible (i.e. apparently transparent) to the eye at a distance of less than 100 meters will be publicly demonstrated by 2020. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2020-01-01.

• Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.

• Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

• 1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers; 13 comments )

  Created by amcknight on 2011-11-11; known on 2036-01-01.

• The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025. ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

• Herman Cain’s actual vote share in the 2012 Republican primaries will be significantly lower than his averaged national poll numbers at the time (as indicated by standard measures of statistical significance). ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-08-30.

• Iran will successfully launch a monkey into space by the end of 2012. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-01-01.

• Barack Obama will win Ohio’s electoral votes in the 2012 election. ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-11-07.

• At least one self-described “anarchist” will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2021-01-01.

• Members of the U.S. House of Representatives will form an “Occupy Caucus” with at least five members within a year after the 2012 elections. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-11-06.

• By 2025, single-lens magnifying glasses that allow a person to view unicellular microorganisms will be available to consumers for less than US$100 (adjusted for inflation). ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

• Herman Cain’s vote share in the 2012 Republican primaries will be at least two standard deviations lower than his averaged poll numbers at the time. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-08-30.

• I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by 18th November. ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-11; known on 2011-11-18; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-17.

• Clear biomarkers will be detected in the atmosphere of more than one “Super Earth” exoplanet by Christmas, 2017. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2017-12-26.

• Evidence of extraterrestrial life will be discovered by 2017. ( 11% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2017-01-01.

• Barack Obama will win the 2012 U.S. presidential election. ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-04.

• Holographic television will be widely available by 2021. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2021-11-01; judged unknown by tswift on 2011-11-04.