Predictions by Nic_Smith

• NGE: A version of the song “Komm, süsser Tod” will be used in Rebuild ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-02-20; known on 2016-01-01.

• Rain at apt. tonight or tomorrow morning. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-21; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-21.

• Temperature outside above 40 ( 10% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-20; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20.

• Temperature outside below 30 ( 30% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20.

• Temperature outside between 30 and 40 F inclusive ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20.

• I will have taken over at least one country by 2035. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-13; known on 2035-01-01.

• There will be at least one human being alive on earth even after the end of the year 2012 ( 100% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by vinayak on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will attend the next Chicago LW meetup. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-16; known on 2012-03-16; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-26.

• Train on Monday arrives on time (within 5 minutes) ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-07; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-07.

• Train on Sunday arrives on time (within 5 minutes) ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-07; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-07.

• SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2021-01-01.

• Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

• No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• Bryan Caplan, or a co-blogger, will write a post on EconLog defending his use of the term “real world” to refer to non-academia in the next two weeks. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-14; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-12-15.

• By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.

• “The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged unknown by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-01.

• By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-23; known on 2050-01-01.

• By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be deciphered and found to be written in a minority language or an Italian dialect still spoken in Italy today. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.

• “3D printing” will be a multi-billion dollar industry by 2021. ( 71% confidence; 14 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2021-01-01.

• “Orkut to be merged with Google Plus in the near future” —Chris Jolley ( 37% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23.

• Obama gets reelected and during that time Hillary Clinton brokers the middle east peace deal between Israel and Palestine for the two state solution. This secures her presidency in 2016. ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by lionflower on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-09-09.

• No open source Minecraft client before 2023 ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2023-01-01.

• Open source MineCraft client by 2021 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2021-01-01.

• Open source MineCraft client by 2017 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2017-01-01.

• Open source MineCraft client by 2015 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2015-01-01.

• Open source MineCraft client by 2014. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2014-01-01.

• Notch (or Mojang) announces open source MineCraft client has been released by 2013. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2013-01-01.

• “Sometime in the next five years, there will be a terroristic attack in or near Las Vegas.” -David Henderson ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14; known on 2016-11-14.

• Herman Cain’s actual vote share in the 2012 Republican primaries will be significantly lower than his averaged national poll numbers at the time (as indicated by standard measures of statistical significance). ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-08-30.

• predictionbook.com, as it functions now, will still exist by 2015. ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-01-01.

• President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 33% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged unknown by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-04.

• By November 2015, Howard Dean will form an exploratory committee to float his name for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-11-01.

• PragmataPro open-sourcing campaign will reach its $220,000 goal ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-01.

• China will forgive US debt in exchange for the ending of US-Taiwan defense treaties by or during 2015 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-11; known on 2016-01-01.

• Stewart Alexis Alexander, of the Socialist Party USA, will receive less than 1% of the popular vote in the 2012 presidential election. ( 92% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07.

• LW: average IQ in survey will be at or above the 98th percentile and thus eligible for Mensa membership. ( 67% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-11-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.

• The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 100% confidence; 41 wagers; 20 comments )

  Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-11-06.

• Steve Jobs’ brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-10-21; known on 2070-01-01.

• Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 47% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.

• “Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31.

• “Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31.

• “Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “Hillary Clinton to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01.

• The next Humble Bundle accepts Bitcoin for payment. ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-12-13.

• Ron Paul will win the electoral vote in the 2012 U.S. Presidential election ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-08-04; known on 2012-11-08.

• The US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15 ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-15.

• Robin Hanson’s brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 42% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.

• 300: Battle of Artemisia is not produced and released in the next decade. ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-02; known on 2021-08-02.

• I will win the free video tutorial contest I entered today. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-08-06; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-08.

• Emotion-reading wearable device commercially available (may need prescription or license) by 2031, or obtainable by publicly available plans (eg open-source project, Make magazine article, Instructable how-to, etc) ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-07-23; known on 2031-01-01.

• Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.

• Barack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion) ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-11-06.

• “Chicago will feel more like Baton Rouge than a Northern metropolis before the end of this century.” ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-23; known on 2099-12-31.

• “The Dishonest Minority” does not appear in the final title of Bruce Schneier’s book with that working title. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-10; known on 2014-05-10; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-30.

• “the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.

• “…in the Pacific Rim at around the 6 p.m. local time hour, in each time zone, there will be a great earthquake, such as has never been in the history of the Earth.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-05-22; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-22.

• Bin Laden is still alive! ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.

• Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 14% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.

• A student will appear at the TA office for antitrust in the next hour. ( 2% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-29; known on 2011-04-29; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-29.

• Hazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste good for me. ( 30% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26.

• Hazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste so-so for me. ( 30% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-26; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26.

• Hazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste bad for me. ( 40% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26.

• I will have a presentation on Thursday. ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-28.

• The string cheese that I left in the TA office is still there. ( 85% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-16; known on 2011-04-17; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-17.

• I will not visit Fortuna, CA overnight or longer in the next 5 years. ( 99% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-15; known on 2016-04-15.

• My scheduler, Sparking Now, completed to a usable level within a year. ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-04-12.

• My scheduler, Sparking Now, completed to a usable level this year. ( 30% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-01.

• Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged unknown by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-29.

• Bush will commit suicide by the next 3 years. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2014-08-09.

• MercMob not in operation or has less than 100 open mobs 5 years from now. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-08; known on 2016-04-08.

• I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats today. ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27; known on 2011-03-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27.

• I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 11pm. ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27; known on 2011-03-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27.

• I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 10pm. ( 75% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27; known on 2011-03-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27.

• I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 9pm. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27; known on 2011-03-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27.

• I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 8pm. ( 40% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27; known on 2011-03-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27.

• I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 7pm. ( 12% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27; known on 2011-03-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27.

• I will have a PHP script to parse STATA summary stats by 6pm. ( 10% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27; known on 2011-03-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27.

• I will have a PHP script to parse and reformat STATA summary stats by 5pm. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27; known on 2011-03-28; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-27.

• Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 September 2011 ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-10-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-30.

• Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 March 2011 ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-03-31; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-31.

• Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 December 2011 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-21.

• Time to McDonald’s by kickscooter: 10 minutes +/-5 ( 75% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-03-23; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22.

• Time to McDonald’s by kickscooter: 10 minutes +/-2 ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-03-23; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22.

• Time to McDonald’s by kickscooter: 10 minutes +/-1 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-03-23; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22.

• The world will not end on December 2012. ( 100% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by puya on 2011-03-18; known on 2012-12-31.

• The world will end in 2012 ( 18% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Martin Chase on 2009-11-17.

• Scooter will arrive on Weds. ( 65% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-03-23; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22.

• Scooter, due Weds, will arrive tomorrow. ( 30% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-03-22; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22.

• Copy of Spice and Wolf volume 3 I ordered, delivered tomorrow. ( 45% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-03-22; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-22.

• Copy of Spice and Wolf volume 3 I ordered, due Tues, delivered today. ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-03-21; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-21.

• The international media will not mention anything about Japan’s Earthquake on next Monday ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by wael on 2011-03-17; known on 2011-03-22; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22.

• There’s between $5 and $50 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine) ( 99% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.

• There’s between $11 and $36 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine) ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.

• There’s between $16 and $26 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine) ( 75% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.

• There’s between $18.00 and $24.00 in the change jar (counted by machine). ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.

• There is between $20.00 and $22.00 in my change jar (as determined by counting machine). ( 5% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.

• My estimate of the change in my change jar, $21.06, is exactly right (as determined by counting machine). ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.

• ‘the next Mayor of Chicago is Rahm Emanuel’ —SarahC ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2011-02-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-23.

• “By January 21, 2016, Facebook will not have the largest market share of social network users who log in at least once per day.” —John Feminella ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2016-01-21.

• A significant portion of the plot of Kore wa Zombie Desu ka? will be revealed to be a “Dying Dream.” ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-01-22; known on 2011-07-18; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-08.

• ‘Bre Pettis will appear on the cover of Bloomberg Businessweek magazine in 2011.’ —Joris Peels ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.

• ‘3D printed products will win at least two Red Dot Design Awards in 2011’ —Joris Peels ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01.

• ‘The unemployment rate in the United States will continue to be above 8%: 90%’ —CronoDAS ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-31.

• ‘I qualify for the Magic Pro Tour: 1%’ —CronoDAS ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-01.

• ‘I get a “real job”: 1%’ —CronoDAS ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-01.

• ‘General AI will not be made in 2011.’ —JoshuaZ ( 97% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• Jared Loughner will be convicted (or plead guilty) to at least one charge related to the 2011 Tuscon shooting. ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-01-12; known on 2026-01-12.

• Jared Loughner will be reported to be a registered Republican or Conservative, or will be reported to have attended a Tea Party event/rally ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-08; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-03.

• ‘Iran will test a nuclear weapon.’ in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-01.

• ‘In 25 years, I bet there’ll be many products we’ll be allowed to buy but not see advertised – the things the government will decide we shouldn’t be consuming because of their impact on healthcare costs or the environment but that they can’t muster the po ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

• ‘Google will buy Twitter’ in 2011 —Chris O’Brien ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-01.

• By 2100 it’s obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it’s actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario. ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-17; known on 2100-01-01.

• “[In 2036, most] Companies that are currently large, debt-laden, listed on an exchange… and paying bonuses will be gone.” – Nassim Taleb (I interpret this less literally to large cap companies as usually structured now, 2010, based on context – NS) ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2010-11-28; known on 2037-01-01.

• The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged unknown by Houshalter on 2010-06-26.

• Absolutely nothing apocalyptic will happen in the year 2012. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by thephilosiraptor on 2009-11-17; known on 2013-01-01.

• The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by PatrickAchtelik on 2010-11-24; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2010-12-12.

• In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 25% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2070-12-31.

• “Friends of the Earth (US) will no longer be fighting against nuclear power by December 2015.” —Stewart Brand ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-11-17; known on 2015-12-01.

• ‘more than half of Baby Boomers will live healthy lives beyond 100’ —Ron Klatz ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-11-14; known on 2049-01-01.

• “[In 2036] The great top-down nation-state will be only cosmetically alive… The pre-modernist robust model of city-states… will prevail” — Nassim Taleb ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2010-11-26; known on 2037-01-01.

• The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 72% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01.

• ‘Vertical farms are appearing in many cities’ by 2025 ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged unknown by bobpage on 2011-10-09.