Statistics
| Predicted Certainty | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Certainty | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Predictions by NineteenHalves
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Google Wave will change the way we E-Mail/IM/Communicate ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts about 1 year ago; known 3 months ago; judged wrong by gwern 7 days ago.
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There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jack 11 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 72% confidence; 37 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by MBlume 11 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by bogdanb 9 months ago.
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Inflation in US will be higher that 7% by 2012 ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by borisbrev 10 months ago; known in over 2 years.
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Config (short for configuration) will appear in the Merriam Webster dictionary as proper word ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman about 1 year ago; known in over 3 years.
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Labour party will not win next UK General Election ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by gwern about 1 month ago.
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The world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams ( 100% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Glenn over 2 years ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by rwallace 8 months ago.
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The current (10/21/09) predictionbook UI, with the right/wrong/unknown above the certainty/comments section, will still be sufficiently similar (and similarly bad) by 12/01/2009 that people mistakenly judging predictions will still happen at least three t ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by freyley 10 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged right by NineteenHalves 9 months ago.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 8% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in over 5 years; judged unknown by ledflyd 9 months ago.