Statistics
| Predicted Certainty | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Certainty | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 80% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
Predictions by Pavitra
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 95% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Houshalter 2 months ago; known in over 2 years; judged unknown by Houshalter 2 months ago.
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Barack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion) ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by tjross 5 months ago; known in over 2 years.
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Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman 6 months ago; known in about 1 year.
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“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.” ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern about 1 month ago; known in over 39 years.
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The “LessWrong Singularity article” will be accepted for publication. http://lesswrong.com/lw/1fz/a_less_wrong_singularity_article/ ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Pavitra 9 months ago; known 5 months ago; judged wrong by Morendil 5 months ago.
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Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jennifer 10 months ago; known in over 14 years.
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This website’s statistics will show that people pick percentages with a ‘2’ in them anomalously often- presumably due to priming from the ‘my 2 cents’ ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Larks 10 months ago; known 7 months ago; judged wrong by Larks 7 months ago.
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The current (10/21/09) predictionbook UI, with the right/wrong/unknown above the certainty/comments section, will still be sufficiently similar (and similarly bad) by 12/01/2009 that people mistakenly judging predictions will still happen at least three t ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by freyley 10 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged right by NineteenHalves 9 months ago.
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Extremist confusionists will not be able to prevent LHC collisions – even given they now have until our Autumn next year ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn about 1 year ago; known 10 months ago; judged right by gwern about 1 month ago.
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Real soon now, there will be some public debate about whether PredictionBook is better suited to deal with personal-life type events or global-public-interest type events ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jes5199 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by jes5199 10 months ago.
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I’ll go 48 hours without caffeine in the next two weeks ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jes5199 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by jes5199 10 months ago.
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There will be a transport (train, air, boat etc) accident killing more than 1000 people before 14 october 2010. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Arenamontanus 10 months ago; known in about 1 month.
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Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jonii 10 months ago; known in over 6 years; judged unknown by jasticE 10 months ago.
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14536f9b3396f692326c8d150047a0dfb37c1360 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Glenn over 2 years ago; known 8 months ago.
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I’ll have made 100 predictions on prediction book by the end of the month ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jes5199 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged right by anonym 10 months ago.
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This site will have a feature to hide other people’s prediction results until after one has voted. This will be implemented at most within two weeks. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kess3r 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by anonym 9 months ago.
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I will make my flight ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by LauraABJ 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged right by LauraABJ 10 months ago.