Predictions by PotatoDumplings

• HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains an ordinary rock ( 26% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Dumbledore possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 85% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Dementors either copy minds or store souls for later resurrection ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: The Peverell tombstone (“The last enemy that shall be destroyed is death”) will be quoted or clearly alluded to at some point. ( 72% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a human ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a phoenix ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a creature which doesn’t age (eg. a basilisk) ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy believes Harry to be Voldemort as of ch83 ( 93% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Peter Pettigrew is dead ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Quirrel ( 67% confidence; 10 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: There will be at least one character whose Animagus form is another human ( 26% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• I get into MIT ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by PotatoDumplings on 2010-01-05; known on 2010-06-05; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings on 2010-03-14.

• I get into CalTech. ( 2% confidence )

  Created by PotatoDumplings on 2010-01-05; known on 2010-06-05; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings on 2010-03-13.

• I get into Harvey Mudd ( 5% confidence )

  Created by PotatoDumplings on 2010-01-05; known on 2010-06-05; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings on 2010-03-25.

• I get into Stanford ( 2% confidence )

  Created by PotatoDumplings on 2010-01-05; known on 2010-06-05; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings on 2010-06-10.

• Inflation in US will be higher that 7% by 2012 ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by borisbrev on 2009-11-04; known on 2012-12-16.

• Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-21; known on 3009-10-21.

• There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 7% confidence; 30 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged unknown by ledflyd on 2009-11-16.

• Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Jonii on 2009-10-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged unknown by jasticE on 2009-10-17.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.