Statistics
| Predicted Certainty | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Certainty | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
Predictions by PotatoDumplings
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I get into MIT ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PotatoDumplings 8 months ago; known 3 months ago; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings 5 months ago.
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I get into CalTech. ( 2% confidence )
Created by PotatoDumplings 8 months ago; known 3 months ago; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings 5 months ago.
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I get into Harvey Mudd ( 5% confidence )
Created by PotatoDumplings 8 months ago; known 3 months ago; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings 5 months ago.
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I get into Stanford ( 2% confidence )
Created by PotatoDumplings 8 months ago; known 3 months ago; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings 2 months ago.
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Inflation in US will be higher that 7% by 2012 ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by borisbrev 10 months ago; known in over 2 years.
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Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TheScholar 10 months ago; known in over 999 years.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 8% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in over 5 years; judged unknown by ledflyd 9 months ago.
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Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jonii 10 months ago; known in over 6 years; judged unknown by jasticE 10 months ago.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 72% confidence; 37 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by MBlume 10 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by bogdanb 9 months ago.