Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 50% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Predictions by Saliency
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iPhone 5 release date will be September 7th 2011 ( 20% confidence )
Created by Saliency on 2011-06-20; known on 2011-11-07.
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Christine Lagarde will be the next IMF president. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Saliency on 2011-06-09; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by Saliency on 2011-07-11.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
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Assuming a 2nd Obama term, “The result will be widely attributed to an improving economy (in the media and in polls and whether or not the economy actually improves)” —Jack ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2012-10-20.
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btc ~$15 in 2 weeks. —cwkoss ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2011-06-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-06-23.
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Bitcoin >=$100 by July 1 —the-ace ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.