Predictions by Sniffnoy

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be offer the Wizengamot Voldemort’s true identity (Quirrel) ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• Within 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html) ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Morendil on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20.

• In 2012 oil prices will reach $130+ a barrel. ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by M3 on 2011-11-24; known in 27 days.

• The oldest living person on 2020-01-01 will be at least 130 years old. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2020-01-01.

• Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.

• By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-23; known on 2050-01-01.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• There will be at least one major outbreak of violence during the Occupy Wall Street protest. ( 45% confidence; 12 wagers; 15 comments )

  Created by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-11; judged wrong by Noetic Jun on 2011-11-11.

• As of 2012-12-21, the OPERA neutrino anomaly at CERN will not have been reproduced by anyone, anywhere. ( 88% confidence; 14 wagers; 15 comments )

  Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-18.

• ‘As for [Korean] reunification, I see it in the next five years.’ —B.R. Myers ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-02-26; known on 2016-02-23.

• Consensus will be that Koomey’s Law no longer applies in 25 years. ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-10; known on 2036-10-10.

• “Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.” ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2203-01-01.

• The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 100% confidence; 41 wagers; 20 comments )

  Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-11-06.

• ‘At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity. For purposes of this prediction “megachurch” means a church with regular attendance of 3000 people at Sunday services.’ —JoshuaZ ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will be inaugurated as President of Russia in 2012. ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-31.

• “Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30.

• “By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.” ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.

• “The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2030-01-01.

• EU to dissolve by 2040. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2040-01-01.

• Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election. ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by maverickmath on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-11-07; judged unknown by JRMayne on 2011-10-11.

• There will be no noticeable disruption of financial services offered by the New York Stock Exchange on October 10th. ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Gedusa on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11.

• “I predict that by 2020 Nike will be the only remaining sneaker company” —Whutsiznaim ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01.

• Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.

• Chess will be a solved game in 50 years ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.

• the Occupy Wall Street protest will begin suffering from communicable diseases and this cause the authorities to crack down and remove them all. ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.

• “I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 13% confidence; 15 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08.

• Andrea Rossi’s 1 MW plant based on his energy catalyzer invention will not succeed within a year. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2012-10-08.

• A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 94% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Morendil on 2011-11-03.

• “the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.

• Harold Camping: “the whole world…will be annihilated together with the whole physical world” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-10-22.

• Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 6% confidence; 17 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-10.

• Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 47% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.

• ‘Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year’ ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged unknown by Swimmy on 2011-10-19.