Predictions by TheScholar

• Five people will join this prediction until friday. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-05.

• The people who join this prediction until friday will bet 45% to 55% on average. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-11-05.

• P=NP, and proven by 12 December 2012 —Dick Lipton ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-12-12.

• ‘The final collapse of the European Union’ ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-18.

• http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years —Jeremy Keith ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-02-19; known on 2022-02-18.

• Julian Assange will not be convicted in Sweden of charges related to August 2010 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-01-04.

• The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 72% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01.

• Over the next year or two, Apple will bring Cocoa development to the Windows desktop via an App Store that sells titles to a broad audience — Daniel Eran Dilger http://bit.ly/aXTPXK ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-11-15; known on 2012-12-31.

• By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2050-01-01.

• In about a year this website will have more then 20 active participants per week. ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-02.

• ‘Vertical farms are appearing in many cities’ by 2025 ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged unknown by bobpage on 2011-10-09.

• ‘Terabyte SD cards will be available’ in 2014 ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01.

• ‘2040 The “Universal Replicator,” based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created – given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

• ‘the MacBook Air in the future (18-24 months) will switch to ARM once the >2GHz ARM processors start shipping en masse’ —pkaler ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-22; known on 2012-10-21.

• By 2020, there will be a new World government. —Ray Kurzweil ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2021-01-01.

• Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used. —Ray Kurzweil ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01.

• Teleportation of simple molecules by 2018 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

• Generic molecular assemblers won’t be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don’t come from bulk chemistry. ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2029-10-14.

• By 2100 it’s obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it’s actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario. ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-17; known on 2100-01-01.

• Before 2012 Apple will (start to) phase out the CD/DVD drives from all it’s MacBooks. ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-02.

• Humanity will experience an outside context problem before 2050 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2050-01-01.

• Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 17% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by komponisto on 2010-09-29.

• The decline of Twitter will start before 2015 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2015-01-01.

• Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-16; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by komponisto on 2010-09-29.

• Absolutely nothing apocalyptic will happen in the year 2012. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by thephilosiraptor on 2009-11-17; known on 2013-01-01.

• The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Jack on 2009-10-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-21; known on 3009-10-21.

• Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 3009-10-17.

• General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 100% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.

• Apple will surpass Microsoft in revenue in a max. of 5 years. ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by crlosg2 on 2009-05-31; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by RandomThinker 14 days ago.

• Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 14% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.