Predictions by Tiresias

• The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged unknown by Houshalter on 2010-06-26.

• “Ron Paul to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012” -Intrade ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known on 2012-02-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-06.

• Clear biomarkers will be detected in the atmosphere of more than one “Super Earth” exoplanet by Christmas, 2017. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2017-12-26.

• Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.

• “By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01.

• “Sometime in the next five years, there will be a terroristic attack in or near Las Vegas.” -David Henderson ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14; known on 2016-11-14.

• Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States. He will win the Republican nomination and win the general election in 2012. ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by capcuervo on 2011-11-26; known on 2012-11-07.

• “Lindsay Lohan will be dead within 2 years.” ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2013-11-16.

• Before 2013, Google will stop developing Chrome OS, or announce a Chromebook running Android, or announce a netbook/ultrabook-shaped successor running Android ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-12-12; known on 2013-01-01.

• A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. ( 24% confidence; 15 wagers; 18 comments )

  Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-23; known on 2021-01-01.

• “California state government will dissolve in default.” ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “Rick Perry to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by falenas108 30 days ago.

• Justin Bieber will go to rehab sometime within the next 10 years ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-31; known on 2021-03-31.

• The US$ will touch parity with the Euro (1€=1US$) before the end of 2012 ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by herb on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-12-31.

• “[Hillary] Clinton will be Obama’s running mate” ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-12-10; known on 2012-09-03.