Predictions by Sandra Åhlén

• PredictionBook’s email notification system will be fixed by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-29.

• GJP: #1051 Will Mario Monti resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Italy before 1 January 2013? ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-01-01.

• GJP: #1052 Will Aung San Suu Kyi be sworn in or seated as a member of Parliament in Myanmar (Burma) before 1 January 2013? ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-01-01.

• Within 5 years, 80% of the global population will own at least one mobile computing device (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-digital-divide-will-cease-to-exist.html) ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Morendil on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20.

• GJP: #1053 By 31 December 2012, will the UK officially announce its intention* to withdraw from the EU? ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-31.

• In 2020, every single one of the 5 tallest buildings in the world will be located in China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01.

• As of 01-01-2013, according to the CIA World Factbook, none of the top 5 GDP per capita (PPP) countries will contain the word “democracy” or “democratic” in their government type variable. ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01.

• Evidence of extraterrestrial life will be discovered by 2017. ( 11% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2017-01-01.

• President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 33% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged unknown by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-04.

• The EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011. ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Fledi on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-04.

• Occupy Wall Street (NYC) will continue at least 30 more days. ( 80% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by torekp on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-23.

• There will be at least one major outbreak of violence during the Occupy Wall Street protest. ( 45% confidence; 12 wagers; 15 comments )

  Created by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-11; judged wrong by Noetic Jun on 2011-11-11.

• “Kevin Rudd will depart as Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs before 1 July 2012.” ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-07-01.

• Average global temperature will be higher for 2012 than 2011. ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-01-01.

• Average global temperature will be higher for 2011 than 2010. ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.

• Sweden will qualify for Euro 2012 after play-offs ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-08; known on 2011-11-16; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-11.

• Sweden will qualify for Euro 2012 as best runner up ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-08; known on 2011-10-12; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-11.

• Steve Jobs’s will shall donate 0-10% of his wealth to charity ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07.

• Steve Jobs’s will shall donate >=50% of his wealth to charity ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01.

• Steve Jobs’s will shall donate >=99% of his wealth to charity. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01.

• ‘Conrad Murray to be found guilty of involuntary manslaughter’ [of Michael Jackson] ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-08.

• When Maru dies, his owner (or someone else) will post videos of him and/or his coffin. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by roxton on 2011-10-05; known on 2021-01-01.

• ‘Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year’ ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged unknown by Swimmy on 2011-10-19.

• Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 47% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.

• US Supercommittee to publish >=$1.5t deficit reduction by midnight 23 November 2011 ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-19; known on 2011-11-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.

• GJP: Kim Jong-Il or his designated successor to be in charge of North Korea as of December 31, 2012 ( 87% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-12-31.

• “King Abdullah to no longer be head of government in Saudi Arabia before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• GJP: the Saudi monarchy continue to rule Saudi Arabia as of March 1, 2012 ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-03-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-03-01.

• Nicolas Sarkozy to be elected President of France in 2012 —Intrade ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by gwern 13 days ago.

• “Julia Gillard to no longer be Prime Minister of Australia before midnight ET 30 Sep 2011” (excluding death) —Intrade ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-05; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.

• “The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005.” ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-01-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-05.

• “David Cameron to no longer be Prime Minister before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star” will get an average critic’s rating of between 20-30% on rottentomatoes.com ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-09-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-18.

• Usain Bolt will leave a positive doping test before or during the London Olympics ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-09-03; known on 2012-09-03.

• I will be killed or more than slightly injured skydiving for the first time Saturday ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-09-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-03.

• Madonna’s new movie “W.E.” will get 80% or better from critics on Rotten Tomatoes ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.

• Obama will approve the Keystone XL pipeline project. ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by Øx on 2011-12-05.

• Lady Gaga will launch her next tour in Omaha, NE. ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-29.

• Anderson Cooper will come out on his daytime talk show. ( 24% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-01.

• Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland to leave the Euro —Michael Pettis ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2020-01-01.

• “Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 10750 on 31 Aug 2011” —Intrade ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-09-01; judged right by Serge on 2011-09-01.

• “Euro/US Dollar to close ON or ABOVE 1.4000 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.

• Syrian president Bashar al-Assad will lose control over his country in 2011. ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• The Hobbit Part 1 will gross more on its opening weekend than LotR: Return of the King ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-21.

• “Dow Jones to close ON or ABOVE 12250 on 31 Aug 2011” —Intrade ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-08-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-31.

• “In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones” —Marc Andreessen ( 75% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2021-08-20.

• The Curiosity rover will successfully land on Mars. ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-09-01.

• The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) for at least another six months. ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-09.

• RBA will leave interest rates unchanged at the next meeting ( 55% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-08-02; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-08-02.

• Contador will win Tour de France 2011 ( 10% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-20; known on 2011-07-25; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.

• Andy Schleck will win Tour de France 2011 ( 10% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-20; known on 2011-07-25; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.

• Thomas Voeckler will win Tour de France 2011 ( 5% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-20; known on 2011-07-25; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.

• Uruguay will win Copa America ( 65% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-20; known on 2011-07-25; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.

• Frank Schleck will win Tour de France 2011 ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-15; known on 2011-07-24; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.

• The US dept ceiling will be raised by August 2 ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-15; known on 2011-08-02; judged right by bobpage on 2011-08-02.

• The final flight of space shuttle Atlantis (STS-135) will be completed successfully and will land with no fatalities and no major incidents. ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-14; known on 2011-07-23; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-21.

• Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• “Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be the warmest on record” —Intrade ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.

• Obama’s approval rating will be lower 1 Jan 2012 than 1 Jan 2011. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-10.

• ‘America’s credit rating will be taken down a notch’ in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-07.

• Cadel Evans will win Tour de France 2011 ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-11; known on 2011-07-25; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.

• Sweden will beat Australia in tonights quarterfinal ( 75% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-10; known on 2011-07-10; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-11.

• The initial carbon price announced by the Gillard government will be below $40 a tonne ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-05; known on 2011-07-10; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-10.

• The initial carbon price announced by the Gillard government will be below $30 a tonne ( 65% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-05; known on 2011-07-10; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-10.

• The initial carbon price announced by the Gillard government will be below $20 a tonne ( 15% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-05; known on 2011-07-10; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-10.

• Cormac McCarthy for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-07.

• Haruki Murakami for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by ka on 2011-10-06.

• Don Delillo for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-07.

• Philip Roth for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by ka on 2011-10-06.

• Nadal will regain the #1 ranking at some point this year ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-03; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2012-01-10.

• Appeals court in Perugia will acquit Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito of the murder of Meredith Kercher. ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by komponisto on 2010-09-29; known on 2011-10-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-03.

• Mourinho’s fear over Barcelona will make him leave Real Madrid in this season. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2011-08-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-30.

• UTS will be one of the first 100 universities in the world by 2014. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2014-06-30.

• ‘A Computer Scientist will win a Nobel Prize.’ —Lipton ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• Greece will default on its debt before 2011-09-01 00:00 UTC ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-06-19; known on 2011-09-02; judged wrong by bobpage on 2011-09-02.

• Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.

• Zlatan will score at least one goal in tonights Euro2012 qualifier ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-07; known on 2011-06-08; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-08.

• Sweden will beat Finland in tonights Euro2012 qualifier ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-07; known on 2011-06-08; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-08.

• Jess will be back in the labs before midnight ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-06-04; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-05.

• Federer will beat Nadal in the French Open final ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-06-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-05.

• Söderling will beat Nadal in the French Open quarter final ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-31; known on 2011-06-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-01.

• Djokovic will win French Open 2011 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-31; known on 2011-06-05; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-04.

• Robin Söderling will win French Open 2011 ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-31; known on 2011-06-05; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-01.

• nevada will be the first state to legalise google driverless car – http://www.caradvice.com.au/118506/google-driverless-car-almost-legal-in-nevada/ ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2011-06-23.

• Korea will keep the record as the first ranking of suicide rate till end of 2011. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Eunseo on 2011-05-29; known on 2013-01-01.

• Vic Steamers will win Monday night’s touch footy game. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-05-30; judged wrong by Jessica Hartany on 2011-06-01.

• We will have submitted registration documents for the competition by 6pm on Monday ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-05-30; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-30.

• My laptop will get fixed by Wednesday. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-06-01; judged wrong by Jessica Hartany on 2011-06-01.

• I will finish my time line infographic of floating city formation by tommorrow. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Eunseo on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-05-30; judged right by Eunseo on 2011-05-30.

• Vettel will win the Monaco Grand Prix. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Ye on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-05-29; judged right by Ye on 2011-05-29.

• I will not drink any alcohol till final design presentation. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Eunseo on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-06-15; judged right by Eunseo on 2011-06-17.

• Hernández will score the first goal in the CL final ( 15% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-28; known on 2011-05-29; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-29.

• Messi will not get any goal tonight! ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-05-28; known on 2011-05-28; judged wrong by minhduc on 2011-05-29.

• After the first half, the result of the match between Manchester and Barcelona will be a draw. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-05-28; known on 2011-05-28; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-29.

• At 3pm this Friday there will be 5 or fewer projects pinned up. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-25; known on 2011-05-27; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-27.

• ‘The cost per watt of solar PV has dropped to below $1’ by 2027 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2027-01-01.

• Barack Obama will be relected in the nexy US election. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-20; known on 2012-11-06.

• Tiger Woods will not win a major tournament in the year 2011 ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by travis2010 on 2011-05-25; known on 2011-08-15; judged right by niekjetten on 2011-06-21.

• We will have submitted registration documents for the competition by 6pm on Friday. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-25; known on 2011-05-27; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-29.

• 5 or fewer students will present and cover all 4 requirements. ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-25; known on 2011-05-27; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-27.

• Barcelona will win the champions league final ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by puya on 2011-05-18; known on 2011-05-29; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-29.

• Porto will win Braga tonight. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-05-18; known on 2011-05-19; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-20.

• My MRI scan on Friday will cost no more than $290 ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-16; known on 2011-05-21; judged right by DavidPercival on 2011-05-21.

• Sweden will beat Finland in the World Cup final tonight ( 65% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-15; known on 2011-05-16; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-16.

• Liverpool will beat Tottenham in Anfield tonight ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-05-15; known on 2011-05-15; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-16.

• Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 September 2011 ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-10-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-30.

• The unidentified object in Stockholms archipelago was a submarine ( 30% confidence; 5 comments )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-07-08; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-26.

• Egypt will stop the export of natural gas to Israel ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by wael on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-06-16; judged wrong by wael on 2011-06-16.

• RBA will raise interest rates by 0.25% in June ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-06-07; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-07.

• Tottenham Hotspur will qualify for the Champions League this season. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-07-07; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-27.

• Liverpool will win Fulham tomorrow ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-05-09; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-10.

• Chelsea will get the Premier League title this season. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-05-28; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-15.

• Chelsea will win Manchester United. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-05-08; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-09.

• Gaddfi will lose one more son in the next 2 months. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.

• The result of the match between Arsenal and Man United will be a draw. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by minhduc on 2011-05-01.

• Liverpool will defeat Newcastle tonight. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-01; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-01.

• Australian dollar will strengthen to 112 US cents by the end of September ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-28; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-01.

• The yes to AV vote will win by a narrow margin ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jase9r on 2011-04-24; known on 2011-05-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-07.

• I will write on blog 3 times during Easter holiday. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Eunseo on 2011-04-20; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Eunseo on 2011-04-26.

• Eric Saade will win Eurovision Song Contest 2011 ( 2% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-05-15; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-15.

• Eric Saade will proceed to the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2011 ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-05-13; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-13.

• MU will get CL this year ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-21; known on 2011-05-21; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-29.

• Man United won’t be able to beat Schalke tonight ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by minhduc on 2011-04-27.

• Cannabis will be legalised within Australia by 2012 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.

• Matt will submit a physical model at his next presentation ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-25; known on 2011-05-06; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-08.

• Group meeting will finish before 11.30 tomorrow. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-25; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26.

• At least one group member will not have read the assignment for tomorrow. ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-25; known on 2011-04-26; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26.

• At least one group member will not show up before 11am tomorrow. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-25; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26.

• Environmental Sustainability will become a core subject untill next year. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by puya on 2011-04-17; known on 2012-03-30.

• Real Madrid will win Barcelona on Sunday ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-04-15; known on 2011-04-17; judged wrong by minhduc on 2011-04-17.

• Man UTD will beat Shalke 04 on semi-final of Champhions League. ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by dumun on 2011-04-14; known on 2011-05-05; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-06.

• Niklas Eliason will be sentenced to psychiatric care ( 35% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-13; known on 2011-06-13; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-15.

• Niklas Eliasson will be sentenced to 14 years in prison ( 65% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-13; known on 2011-06-13; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-15.

• Immigration will reduce by 50 percent until the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by puya on 2011-03-30; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2012-01-10.

• Barcelona will win the copa del ray. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by puya on 2011-04-11; known on 2011-04-21; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-21.

• Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged unknown by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-29.

• I will get a Credit for Finance & Project Management Assignment 1 ( 65% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-10; known on 2011-05-04; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-10.

• Liverpool will win Manchester City ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-04-09; known on 2011-04-11; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-11.

• “Iran will have mastered the generation of energy-grade nuclear material by early 2011, and given up on development of nuclear bombs in favor of civilian nuclear energy.” —Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2011-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-28.

• Julian Assange will not be convicted in Sweden of charges related to August 2010 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-01-04.

• “Rare pink diamond to fetch £7m at auction” ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-09; known on 2011-04-12; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-13.

• It will rain for my soccer match tomorrow. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by DavidPercival on 2011-04-08; known on 2011-04-10; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-04-10.

• The judge will rule that Julian Assange be extradited to Sweden after hearings in July. ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-07; known on 2011-10-01; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-02.

• Project and finance management will turn from 6 credit points to 12 credit points by the end of this year. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2012-01-10.

• Tottenham will defeat Real Madrid on aggregate in the Champions League ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by DavidPercival on 2011-04-06; known on 2011-04-21; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-04-21.

• There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 37% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.

• David Percival will finish all of the requirements of Ben’s studio by week 9 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by puya on 2011-03-23; known on 2011-04-27; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-27.

• The 2012 Apocalypse will end up being a hoax. ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by seansman15@hotmail.com on 2011-03-23; known on 2012-12-23.

• In about a year this website will have more then 20 active participants per week. ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-02.

• “Barcelona will beat Real Madrid 5-0 in the Copa del Rey final” – Barcelona president Sandro Rosell ( 10% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-03; known on 2011-04-21; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-21.

• Real Madrid will win Copa del Rey 2010/11 ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-03; known on 2011-04-21; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-21.

• FC Barcelona will win La Liga 2010/11 ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-03; known on 2011-05-23; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-12.

• AC Milan will win Seria A 2010/11 ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-03; known on 2011-05-23; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-08.

• Dumun and I will be in same group in Sustainable Urban Development. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Eunseo on 2011-04-01; known on 2011-04-02; judged wrong by Eunseo on 2011-04-02.

• By December 2011 at least one of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy will leave the Euro —Capitol Commentary ( 19% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2011-12-01.

• “Fukushima 1 evacuation radius to be 30km or more before midnight ET 30 April 2011” – Intrade ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-01; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-01.

• Milan will beat Inter on Sunday ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-31; known on 2011-04-03; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-03.

• Sydney Swans will beat Melborne in the AFL this weekend ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-24; known on 2011-03-27; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-03-28.

• ‘Apple gives away [Mac OS X] Lion for free or less than $30’ —Brian Breslin ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2011-07-01; judged right by bobpage on 2011-06-11.

• “About 18 months from now, 80 percent of newspapers will be gone.” —Michael Wolff ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-01.

• “In two years, unemployment in Sweden will have risen to 12 percent.” —Anders Borg ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-04-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-02.

• Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 March 2011 ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-03-31; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-31.

• Labour will lose this weekends NSW State election. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-03-27; judged right by DavidPercival on 2011-03-27.

• Chelsea will win MU at SB in 1/4 CL ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-23; known on 2011-04-07; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-07.

• By the end of 2012 the amount of international students at UTS will become less than 10 percent. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by puya on 2011-03-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-20.

• by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts. —Gerald Celente ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• The world will end on 21 December 2012. ( 1% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-17; known on 2012-12-22.

• The world will end on 12 December 2012. ( 1% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-17; known on 2012-12-13.

• Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-28.

• Urban drawings will be done by monday. ( 65% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-17; known on 2011-03-22; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-22.

• Mad Max 4 will be released by Christmas 2014 ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-14; known on 2014-12-25.

• All clubs which are play home at second game in 1/8 Round Champions League will get into next round 1/4! ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-14; known on 2011-03-18; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-17.

• Less than 7 students will attend the RUBY lesson today. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by puya on 2011-03-14; known on 2011-03-14; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-14.

• I will win $50 in prediction competition at the end of this term. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Eunseo on 2011-03-09; known on 2011-06-10; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-06-17.

• I will make it to class on time on saturday. ( 30% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-11; known on 2011-03-12; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-11.

• I will attend at least nine yoga classes ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-11; known on 2011-03-21; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-20.

• less than 12 students will attend my class today ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-10; known on 2011-03-11; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-11.

• I won’t see my flatmate more than once this week. ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-09; known on 2011-03-14; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-14.

• Ben will be late for the yoga class. ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Ye on 2011-03-08; known on 2011-03-11; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-11.

• ben will not make it back to comp lab by 4pm. ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-08; known on 2011-03-08; judged right by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-08.

• Milan will beat Spurs on Wednesday. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-07; known on 2011-03-10; judged wrong by dumun on 2011-03-10.

• I will call my brother on his birthday. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-03; known on 2011-03-06; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-07.