Predictions by anonym

Predictions by anonym

• The “LessWrong Singularity article” will be accepted for publication. http://lesswrong.com/lw/1fz/a_less_wrong_singularity_article/ ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by Pavitra 9 months ago; known 5 months ago; judged wrong by Morendil 5 months ago.

• Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Citizen553 9 months ago; known in over 149 years; judged unknown by Jack 7 months ago.

• PredictionBook will implement tagging for predictions in the next two months. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by ChristianKl 10 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged wrong by Jack 8 months ago.

• The current (10/21/09) predictionbook UI, with the right/wrong/unknown above the certainty/comments section, will still be sufficiently similar (and similarly bad) by 12/01/2009 that people mistakenly judging predictions will still happen at least three t ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by freyley 10 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged right by NineteenHalves 9 months ago.

• Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by TheScholar 10 months ago; known in over 999 years.

• Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by TheScholar 10 months ago; known in over 999 years.

• The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jack 10 months ago; known in over 9 years; judged unknown by freyley 10 months ago.

• Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jennifer 10 months ago; known in over 14 years.

• I will spend most of Friday (20%t) on PBook ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Glenn 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by anonym 10 months ago.

• Some group in Pakistan has already developed a super-intelligence (as of 2009). ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by mjgeddes 10 months ago; known in over 4 years; judged unknown by freyley 10 months ago.

• The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by freyley 10 months ago; known in over 16 years; judged unknown by freyley 10 months ago.

• The mind body problem will not be solved. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Tobias_M 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged right by gwern about 1 month ago.

• There will be more than 1000 PB predictions before Fri. Oct. 23, 2009. There are ~ 650 @ 6PM PDT, Sun. Oct. 18. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by freyley 10 months ago.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 72% confidence; 37 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by MBlume 10 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by bogdanb 9 months ago.

• I will go to south africa ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Happypenguin 10 months ago; known about 1 month ago.

• There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving one billion personal records before 2019. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Arenamontanus 10 months ago; known in over 9 years.

• By Nov. 01, 2009, PB will stop silently truncating long prediction descriptions. Currently, there is no user feedback or indication that there is a length limit. The last part of the description just disappears after you subm ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by anonym 10 months ago.

• A significant number of people will comment here that they modify initial self-predictions of greater than 50% upwards to account for anticipation of putting extra effort into it because it was judged more likely than not. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged wrong by anonym 8 months ago.

• Prediction Book will not have eliminated its performance problems by Nov. 1, 2009. Many page requests will still take more than 4 seconds to load. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged right by anonym 10 months ago.

• No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 83% confidence; 11 wagers )

  Created by komponisto 10 months ago; known in over 9 years; judged unknown by Jack 9 months ago.

• Before Dec. 1, 2009, PB will change the UI to make it clearer that users should click “My 2 Cents” when entering a probability, regardless of whether they want to add a comment, and that they should not click the “Right” or “Wrong” judgment button. ( 89% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged right by anonym 10 months ago.

• In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 37% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl 10 months ago; known in over 60 years.

• In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl 10 months ago; known in over 50 years.

• Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by TheScholar 10 months ago; known in over 19 years; judged unknown by Jack 9 months ago.

• Neither Eliezer nor Robin will have more than 10 public predictions recorded before Monday ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged right by Matt 10 months ago.

• I will still be alive in 2200, meaning that the software that I am — or some modification of it — will still be running then. ( 2% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in over 189 years.

• I will find a sci-fi author that I like as much as Iain M. Banks before 2012. ( 15% confidence )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in about 1 year.

• I will have read all the science fiction works of Iain M. Banks (those published with ‘M.’ in both UK and USA) by end of 2009. ( 80% confidence )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged wrong by anonym 8 months ago.

• The sun will rise tomorrow morning ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by uninverted 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged right by anonym 10 months ago.

• General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 100% confidence; 25 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by bogdanb 10 months ago; known in about 1 month; judged unknown by Morendil 9 months ago.

• I will not become a theist before the end of 2009. ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Benthamite about 1 year ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by Benthamite 8 months ago.

• Osama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers )

  Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged right by gwern about 1 month ago.

• Google Wave will change the way we E-Mail/IM/Communicate ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by TwitterPredicts about 1 year ago; known 3 months ago; judged wrong by gwern 4 days ago.

• The sun will not become a nova during this year. ( 100% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bogdanb 10 months ago; known in about 1 month; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.

• Google will lose their soul. We’ll love them less in the coming years. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Lina about 1 year ago; known in 8 months; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.

• Roman Polanski will be extradited to the United States before the end of next year. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known in 3 months; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.

• One or more persons will be charged with the manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael Jackson before the end of the year. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged wrong by gwern about 1 month ago.

• The world will end in 2012 ( 21% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by jes5199 10 months ago; known in over 2 years; judged unknown by Martin Chase 9 months ago.

• Bayesian Induction will be proven to be merely a special case of analogical reasoning by 2014 ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by mjgeddes 10 months ago; known in over 3 years; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.

• Generic AI won’t happen in the next 10 years. ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers )

  Created by bogdanb 10 months ago; known in over 9 years; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.

• A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by rwallace 10 months ago; known in over 29 years; judged unknown by freyley 10 months ago.

• Civil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by max 10 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.

• The recession will end this year ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by TwitterPredicts about 1 year ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by gwern about 1 month ago.

• Weed will not be legalized in California for the next 5 years ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by aurasprw 10 months ago; known about 1 year ago; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.

• Sarah Palin is mounting a 2012 presidential campaign ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by TwitterPredicts about 1 year ago; known in 10 months; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.

• There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by ChristianKl 10 months ago; known in over 2 years; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.

• There will be a storm/hurricane event killing more than 5000 people before 14 October 2010. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Arenamontanus 10 months ago; known in about 1 month; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.

• There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving more than 100 million personal records before the end of 2012. ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Arenamontanus 10 months ago; known in over 2 years; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.

• I’ll have made 100 predictions on prediction book by the end of the month ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by jes5199 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged right by anonym 10 months ago.

• Real soon now, there will be some public debate about whether PredictionBook is better suited to deal with personal-life type events or global-public-interest type events ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by jes5199 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by jes5199 10 months ago.

• Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )

  Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known in over 2 years; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.

• I’ll go 48 hours without caffeine in the next two weeks ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by jes5199 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by jes5199 10 months ago.

• There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jack 10 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.

• The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Adam over 2 years ago; known in over 27 years; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.

• The NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Adam about 1 year ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.

• I will still be alive in 2020. ( 95% confidence )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in over 9 years.

• I will not be diagnosed with cancer before the age of 45. ( 97% confidence )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in over 8 years.

• I will make at least 5 predictions each week of the 2nd month since I started using Prediction Book ( 25% confidence )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known 8 months ago.

• I will still be at my current job on Nov. 17, 2009. ( 96% confidence )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known 9 months ago; judged right by anonym 9 months ago.

• The 2010 Singularity Summit will be on the West Coast again. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in about 1 month.

• There will be an earthquake in California that results in at least 1000 human deaths before 2012. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in about 1 year.

• There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 8% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in over 5 years; judged unknown by ledflyd 9 months ago.

• There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in over 5 years; judged unknown by Jack 10 months ago.

• I will still live in the SF bay area in 2011. ( 95% confidence )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in 3 months.

• I will still have my current job (as of Oct., 2009) at the end of 2010. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in 3 months.

• I will get up before 10 AM both weekend days. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged right by anonym 10 months ago.