Predictions by anonym

• The current criteria for awarding the “Poseidon award” offered by the seastead insitute, will be met by someone by 2015. ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Konkvistador on 2011-08-30; known on 2016-01-01.

• Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-25; known on 2039-08-25.

• “Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• Relationship between P and BPP resolved by 2045 ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-16; known on 2045-01-01.

• Clojure becomes dominant JVM language on GitHub ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2016-10-16.

• The US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15 ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-15.

• “Hillary Clinton to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01.

• “In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones” —Marc Andreessen ( 75% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2021-08-20.

• A Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon’s diary either as a quote or written by Bacon. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-01.

• Absolutely nothing apocalyptic will happen in the year 2012. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by thephilosiraptor on 2009-11-17; known on 2013-01-01.

• Barack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion) ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-11-06.

• Barack Obama wins the presidential elections in 2012. ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by SilentWarrior on 2010-09-01; known on 2012-11-07.

• The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged unknown by Houshalter on 2010-06-26.

• “Steve Jobs will be nominated for Presdident of the United States, by one of the two major political parties in 2012.” ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-06.

• “California state government will dissolve in default.” ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• Neither angelina joli nor brad pitt will die in the next 12 months ( 98% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by Frank on 2010-04-18; known on 2011-07-02; judged right by Frank on 2011-07-02.

• PredictionBook will not be meaningfully integrated into LessWrong.com before 2011. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.

• The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 31% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )

  Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.

• “By 2010, more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks.” ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• ‘2040 The “Universal Replicator,” based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created – given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

• ‘2024 Infrared signals are detected coming from the centre of the Galaxy, obviously the product of a technologically advanced civilisation. All attempts to decipher them fail.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2025-01-01.

• ‘Artificial Intelligence reaches human level. From now on there are two intelligent species on Earth.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2021-01-01.

• ‘On his hundred birthday, December 16, Sir Arthur C. Clarke is one of the first guests in the Hilton Orbiter.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2018-01-01.

• ‘Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide’ in 2020 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01.

• “Within 50 years it will be the dominant paradigm within particle physics that all leptons and quarks are each composed of three pairs of two opposite types of black hole and that a pair of these black holes, when merged, form the underlying units from wh ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-11-08; known on 2060-11-07.

• Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-30; known on 2031-01-01.

• By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2050-01-01.

• ‘Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge’ by 2025 ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.

• ‘Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice’ by 2025 ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.

• The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race. —Ray Kurzweil ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01.

• A $1,000 personal computer has as much raw power as the human brain. —Ray Kurzweil ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01.

• ‘2095 The development of a “Space Drive” – a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time – makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.’ ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2096-01-01.

• ‘2090 Burning of fossil fuels is resumed to replace carbon dioxide “mined” from the air and to try to postpone the next Ice Age by promoting global warming.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2091-01-01.

• ‘2057 On October 4, the centenary of Sputnik 1, the dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans on Earth, the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan, and in orbit around Venus, Neptune and Pluto.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2058-01-01.

• ‘2050 Bored in this era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search of adventure.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2051-01-01.

• Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.

• The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 72% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01.

• “Before the holidays, Amazon will cut the price of the Wi-Fi Kindle to $99, and the 3G version will go for $150 or less.” —Farhad Manjoo ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• The “LessWrong Singularity article” will be accepted for publication. http://lesswrong.com/lw/1fz/a_less_wrong_singularity_article/ ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by Pavitra on 2009-11-25; known on 2010-03-15; judged wrong by Morendil on 2010-03-17.

• Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Citizen553 on 2009-11-18; known on 2159-11-18; judged unknown by Jack on 2010-01-26.

• PredictionBook will implement tagging for predictions in the next two months. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-12-15; judged wrong by Jack on 2009-12-28.

• The current (10/21/09) predictionbook UI, with the right/wrong/unknown above the certainty/comments section, will still be sufficiently similar (and similarly bad) by 12/01/2009 that people mistakenly judging predictions will still happen at least three t ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by freyley on 2009-10-22; known on 2009-12-03; judged right by NineteenHalves on 2009-12-03.

• Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-21; known on 3009-10-21.

• Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 3009-10-17.

• The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Jack on 2009-10-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jennifer on 2009-10-19; known on 2025-01-12.

• I will spend most of Friday (20%t) on PBook ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Glenn on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-23; judged wrong by anonym on 2009-11-01.

• Some group in Pakistan has already developed a super-intelligence (as of 2009). ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2026-10-20; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• The mind body problem will not be solved. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Tobias_M on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-19; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• There will be more than 1000 PB predictions before Fri. Oct. 23, 2009. There are ~ 650 @ 6PM PDT, Sun. Oct. 18. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-24; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-10-23.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving one billion personal records before 2019. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-12-31.

• By Nov. 01, 2009, PB will stop silently truncating long prediction descriptions. Currently, there is no user feedback or indication that there is a length limit. The last part of the description just disappears after you subm ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-11-01; judged wrong by anonym on 2009-11-01.

• A significant number of people will comment here that they modify initial self-predictions of greater than 50% upwards to account for anticipation of putting extra effort into it because it was judged more likely than not. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by anonym on 2010-01-01.

• Prediction Book will not have eliminated its performance problems by Nov. 1, 2009. Many page requests will still take more than 4 seconds to load. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-11-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-11-01.

• No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 86% confidence; 14 wagers )

  Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.

• Before Dec. 1, 2009, PB will change the UI to make it clearer that users should click “My 2 Cents” when entering a probability, regardless of whether they want to add a comment, and that they should not click the “Right” or “Wrong” judgment button. ( 89% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-12-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-21.

• In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 25% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2070-12-31.

• In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. ( 43% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2060-12-31.

• Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 14% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.

• Neither Eliezer nor Robin will have more than 10 public predictions recorded before Monday ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Matt on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-18; judged right by Matt on 2009-10-18.

• I will still be alive in 2200, meaning that the software that I am — or some modification of it — will still be running then. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2200-01-01.

• I will have read all the science fiction works of Iain M. Banks (those published with ‘M.’ in both UK and USA) by end of 2009. ( 80% confidence )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by anonym on 2010-01-01.

• The sun will rise tomorrow morning ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by uninverted on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-15; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 100% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.

• I will not become a theist before the end of 2009. ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Benthamite on 2009-05-01; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Benthamite on 2009-12-30.

• Osama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• Google Wave will change the way we E-Mail/IM/Communicate ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2010-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-01.

• The sun will not become a nova during this year. ( 100% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-14.

• Google will lose their soul. We’ll love them less in the coming years. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Lina on 2009-05-28; known on 2011-05-27; judged wrong by Lina on 2011-05-27.

• Roman Polanski will be extradited to the United States before the end of next year. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.

• One or more persons will be charged with the manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael Jackson before the end of the year. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• The world will end in 2012 ( 18% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Martin Chase on 2009-11-17.

• Bayesian Induction will be proven to be merely a special case of analogical reasoning by 2014 ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• Generic AI won’t happen in the next 10 years. ( 88% confidence; 9 wagers )

  Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-10-14; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• Civil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011. ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-03.

• The recession will end this year ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• Weed will not be legalized in California for the next 5 years ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by aurasprw on 2009-10-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• Sarah Palin is mounting a 2012 presidential campaign ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-13.

• There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US. ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• There will be a storm/hurricane event killing more than 5000 people before 14 October 2010. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-14.

• There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving more than 100 million personal records before the end of 2012. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• I’ll have made 100 predictions on prediction book by the end of the month ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-11-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-11-01.

• Real soon now, there will be some public debate about whether PredictionBook is better suited to deal with personal-life type events or global-public-interest type events ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-29; judged wrong by jes5199 on 2009-10-29.

• Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• I’ll go 48 hours without caffeine in the next two weeks ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-29; judged wrong by jes5199 on 2009-10-29.

• There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 37% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.

• The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Adam on 2008-07-18; known on 2038-07-18; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-11-07.

• The NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2012-03-22; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• I will still be alive in 2020. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01.

• I will not be diagnosed with cancer before the age of 45. ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2019-01-01.

• I will make at least 5 predictions each week of the 2nd month since I started using Prediction Book ( 25% confidence )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-12-17.

• I will still be at my current job on Nov. 17, 2009. ( 96% confidence )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-11-17; judged right by anonym on 2009-11-15.

• The 2010 Singularity Summit will be on the West Coast again. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-11-01.

• There will be an earthquake in California that results in at least 1000 human deaths before 2012. ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 7% confidence; 30 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged unknown by ledflyd on 2009-11-16.

• There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2011-11-02.

• I will get up before 10 AM both weekend days. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-10-18; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-18.