Predictions by Anubhav

• HP MoR: Severus Snape will go back to the dark side, such as working for Voldemort ( 37% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban and the person in Azkaban is Peter Pettigrew ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be (conditional on appearance) competent and conceited ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be (conditional on appearance) competent and not conceited ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be Sir Not Appearing In This Fanfic ( 88% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy was killed by Amelia Bones ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy killed herself accidentally eg. by Fiendfyre (analogous to Goyle) ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy killed herself ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy was killed by Voldemort ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy is dead ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy believes Harry to be Voldemort as of ch83 ( 93% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: All Voldemort’s horcruxes except the Pioneer probe will be destroyed, and Voldemort is doomed to wander the cosmos forever ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: All Voldemort’s horcruxes except the Pioneer probe will be destroyed, and Voldemort is doomed to wander the cosmos forever, and this outcome will be either planned or permitted by Harry ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry is a Horcrux and Voldemort knows this ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Voldemort is Quirrel’s wand or is contained within it ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains an ordinary rock ( 26% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Philosopher’s Stone ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Resurrection Stone ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains James Potter ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: the original Quirrel killed his parents ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Quirrel’s zombie-mode is about spending time at the Pioneer probe perspective ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Quirrel believes that Harry’s stone is the Resurrection Stone ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Quirrel plans to manipulate Harry (already a Horcrux) into making a Harry-Horcrux of Quirrel so neither can ever die ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Quirrel is Harry from the future ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Quirrel is a Horcrux, as well as anything else ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Quirrel is the original Quirrel possessed by Voldemort (a la Philosopher’s Stone) ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Quirrel is the fused personality of Voldemort + original Quirrel ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Quirrel is a younger version of Voldemort, a damaged backup from many years before (like the diary Riddle) ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Quirrel is Voldemort in some sense ( 94% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Quirrel will have Hermione killed with Harry as a witness ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry will steal the Philosopher’s Stone at some point ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a human ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry will invent some form of ‘metamagic’ (eg. a self-replicating spell or magical construct/artifact) ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects, and it won’t be Friendly, killing many/all ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry is a horcrux ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry’s disturbed sleep is a clue to some unrevealed secret (and not just a Time-turner excuse) ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Dumbledore, Quirrel, Voldemort, Santa Claus, and Mr. Hat and Cloak are all the same person. ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: A ritual will restore Voldemort to a body and Bellatrix Black will be used in it ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: A ritual will restore Voldemort to a body ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: The Prophecy actually referred to Neville Longbottom and not Harry ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Voldemort deliberately & voluntarily retired from being Dark Lord, after doing something else involving Harry ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy was, at least initially, Imperiused into becoming a Death Eater ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Lily Potter did not give Petunia a magic potion, but actually Imperius’ed her. ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: The original Quirrel was Voldemort’s master or teacher ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Dementors either copy minds or store souls for later resurrection ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Azkaban Island is the last remnant of Atlantis ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: A Deathly Hallow besides the Cloak will appear in the possession of a character in the present-day at some point ( 92% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: the Elder Wand is already in the possession of a character ( 88% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Quirrel possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Dumbledore possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 85% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Humans can be permanently turned into house-elves ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: someone will be mentioned or shown using the Imperius curse on themselves (or consenting to another’s use on them) to supplement their willpower (dieting, working hard, etc.) ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Hat & Cloak ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Remus Lupin ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Sirius Black ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Voldemort ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Harry ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: >= 6 chapters of 2+ pages length published in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Grognor 2 days ago.

• HP MoR: story completed during Harry’s fourth year or later of Hogwarts ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: story completed during Harry’s third year of Hogwarts ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: story completed during Harry’s second year of Hogwarts ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: story completed during Harry’s first year of Hogwarts ( 69% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be mentioned by name but not appear ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a phoenix ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: There are >7 Voldemort Horcruxes ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: the Philosopher’s Stone will be mass-manufactured by Harry or at his behest ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: 5 Voldemort Horcruxes are where Harry suggested putting hidden things in ch46 ( 61% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Bacon’s diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel when he killed Rita Skeeter ( 8% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: ch 85 (or sooner): Dumbledore will realize where and when did Harry had an opportunity not just to terrify Dementors, but to gain enough confidence in this achievement. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known in 22 days; judged wrong by HonoreDB 26 days ago.

• HP MoR: ch 85 (or sooner): Headmaster would allow Harry to exploit vulnerabilities of the magic Britain’s economics to get out of debt (to Malfoy for his Hermione’s “purchase”). ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known in 22 days; judged wrong by HonoreDB 26 days ago.

• HPMoR : ch 120 (or sooner): After understanding the death’s place in evolution of life and mind, Harry would refuse become a Creator of the Words. ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 14 comments )

  Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-05-06.

• Google will actually produce Google Maps 8-Bit for NES (http://goo.gl/zA1BJ), and will announce this before the end of April. ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-03-31; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke 18 days ago.

• HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will not play another game of Dota for another 3 weeks. ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by williamycai on 2012-03-28; known on 2012-04-18; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-04-03.

• HP MoR: Nobody in the LW discussion thread will predict Harry’s actual attempted solution (regardless of whether it fails). ( 26% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: Harry will confess to having arranged the attempted murder of Malfoy. ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: Priori Incantatum ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by gryffinp on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-29; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be using the Time-turner to smuggle Hermione out under the Cloak ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be using the Time-turner to affect Lucius in some way ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be using the Time-turner to alter Hermione’s testimony to something easily falsifiable ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be using the Time-turner in some way ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be have Quirrel make Bella confess to the crime ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch 81: Harry’s solution will be to set his hair on fire and run around in circles, screaming. ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be ask for a trial by combat ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will involve destroying one of the Dementors ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be invoke the Imperius-debts of other Wizengamot members ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be reveal the truth about Bellatrix’s escape ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be offer the Wizengamot Voldemort’s true identity (Quirrel) ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be accept Hermione’s imprisonment but order the Dementors to leave her alone ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be threaten to destroy Azkaban ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be make Dumbledore turn himself in to Lucius in exchange for Hermione’s freedom ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be invoking Lucius’s debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser ( 35% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.

• HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be nothing (failure) ( 6% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.

• SpaceX sends a passenger flight to Mars by 2023. ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-22; known on 2013-01-01.

• http://dkmvs.com/ will be a viral hit in 30 days. Edit: Let’s define “hit” as averaging > 1,000 page views a day for 3 days prior to the outcome being known. ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by scott.arbeitman on 2012-03-21; known 29 days ago; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman 17 days ago.

• http://www.humanbirdwings.net/ will turn out to be a hoax. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by iemfi on 2012-03-21; known 29 days ago; judged right by bobpage on 2012-03-22.

• HP MoR: Conditional on prediction 6109, Hermione Granger will be transformed into a House-Elf before chapter 85. ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-04-09.

• HP MoR: Humans can be irrevocably transformed into House-Elves, and this is revealed in chapter 80. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-03-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-23.

• HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is not a character from canon. He is, in fact, a character from an anime. ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-15; known on 2017-01-01.

• >=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-12.

• I will score above 100 in at least one of the two “IQ tests” I take today. (iqout.com and iqtest.dk) ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-03-12; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-12.

• By 2020, there will have been at least 5 assassinations that were predicted by a prediction market (and known as such). ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01.

• At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020. ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01.

• Kerala High Court hears a PIL against India’s IT rules. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-07-01.

• The US will have have laws or regulations to outlaw normal people destroying drones by end of 2022 (10 years from now) ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 19 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2022-12-31.

• Assassin’s Creed 3 will be available in the United States by October 31, 2012 ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by papermachine on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-11-01.

• An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030. ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2030-01-01.

• An off-planet Playboy Club is operational before 2020. ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2020-01-01.

• First-year sales of Rowling’s new book will be less than 40% of the first-year sales of Deathly Hallows (44 million according to Wikipedia.) ( 77% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-29; known on 2013-12-20.

• No open source Minecraft client before 2023 ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2023-01-01.

• HP MoR: “A new chapter of HP:MoR, which would be more than two pages in length, will be posted” —Bugmaster ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-15.

• 2020: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 20% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01.

• 2020: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01.

• 2025: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2025-01-01.

• 2025: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2025-01-01.

• Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Porejide on 2012-02-18; known on 2032-02-17.

• I will be selected for OpenSNP’s free 23AndMe genotyping. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-10.

• NGE: A version of the song “Komm, süsser Tod” will be used in Rebuild ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-02-20; known on 2016-01-01.

• HP MoR: The use of the device with the golden wibblers is revealed before 2017. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-19; known on 2017-01-01.

• Indian Supreme Court rules in favour of Novartis. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-17; known on 2012-07-01.

• My comment on Shiny Ogre’s blog will be approved in 24 hours. ( 50% confidence; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-16; known on 2012-02-17; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-17.

• I will have taken over at least one country by 2035. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-13; known on 2035-01-01.

• I will score over 80% aggregate on my finals. ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-11; known in 27 days.

• I will score over 60% aggregate on my finals. ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-11; known in 27 days.

• I will not fail a single actuarial exam before 2014. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-11; known on 2014-01-01.

• The DirectTV guy won’t be able to install our satellite dish on our West facing balcony. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Primeval on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-02-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-11.

• I will have mastered physics to 2nd year Uni of Melbourne level ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by waveman on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-07-01.

• Initial release of iPhone 5 or iPad 3 (or their market names) will allow installing your own applications, without jailbreaking or signing up for a developer program ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by bobpage on 2012-02-05; known on 2012-07-01.

• There will be a Google Summer of Code in 2017 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2012-02-05; known on 2017-04-01.

• USA will collapse before the People’s Republic of China. ( 38% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-04; known on 2030-01-01.

• Eureqa will generate a (reasonably) elegant relation between the marks and attendance of Computer Science and Statistics. ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-03; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-03.

• By 2020, a single-word term for additive fabrication technology will replace “3D printing” in the media. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-03; known on 2020-01-01.

• HP MoR: Methods of Rationality or a derivative work wins a Hugo Award in or before 2016. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2017-01-01.

• “Rescind mandate asking Catholic employers to provide contraceptives” petition to the White House will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-27; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-28.

• “Rescind mandate asking Catholic employers to provide contraceptives” petition to the White House will reach 25k signatures by the end of this week. ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-06; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-06.

• 2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in autonomous units with populations between 10 million and 1 billion. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-02; known on 2050-01-01.

• By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01.

• HP MoR: Bacon’s diary will turn out to be just a diary. ( 53% confidence; 9 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-02-01; known on 2013-01-16.

• 2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in sovereign nation-states. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01.

• By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-31; known on 2025-01-01.

• Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of Homo sapiens/non-occurrence of apocalypse.) ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-01; known on 2112-02-01.

• By 2050, body modification enthusiasts will have printed custom body augmentations through 3D printing technology. ( 89% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-31; known on 2050-01-01.

• I will have read "Freakonomics” by February 5, 2012. ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-01-30; known on 2012-02-05; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-02-04.

• The Hunger Games film will not fail (>= 60% on Rotten Tomatoes). ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Christopher on 2012-01-29; known on 2012-03-24; judged right by Christopher on 2012-03-23.

• I will watch all 75 episodes of Hikaru no Go before 2013. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-29; known on 2013-01-01.

• A nuclear device (bomb, granade etc) with a strength of more than 1 kiloton will explode anywhere in the middle east within the next 5 years. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-29; known on 2017-01-29.

• HP MoR: Dumbledore deliberately arranged for Voldemort to learn of the prophecy about his defeat. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-29; known on 2016-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry’s conclusion about the blood of Atlantis and the origin of magic is deeply flawed in some respect. ( 42% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-28; known on 2016-01-01.

• TechDirt: CLT’s ‘Security Theater’ will be featured in this week’s “funniest/most insightful comments”. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-30.

• I will unsubscribe from Erfworld. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-07-27.

• Eliezer will reply to my PM in the next 2 days. The reply will be a go-ahead. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-01-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-28.

• Eliezer will have replied to my PM by tomorrow morning. The reply will be a go-ahead. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-01-28; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-28.

• I will reach 1000 karma on LW (http://lesswrong.com/user/RobertLumley) by June 2nd, the anniversary of my first post on LW. ( 68% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08; known in 14 days; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.

• Less Wrong will have a “limited-access forum” before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-26; known on 2013-01-01.

• “Reduce term of copyrights to a maximum of 56 years” petition will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by ahartell on 2012-02-20.

• “Submit ACTA to the Senate” petition will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-21.

• “Submit ACTA to Senate” petition will reach 25k signatures by the end of this month. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-02.

• PredictionBook will display users’ Brier scores by the end of this year. ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will ask out the person I currently have a crush on. They will say no. ( 65% confidence; 11 wagers; 15 comments )

  Created by Leo on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by Leo on 2012-01-30.

• I will read and complete every exercise within Learn Ruby the Hard Way before July 2012. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-07-01.

• The Japanese Language pack install will be successful. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-01-25; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-25.

• My PC will realise Japanese isn’t an installed language after I run CCleaner’s registry cleanup. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-01-25; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-25.

• End Acta petition to the White house will have 25k signatures in 2 weeks. ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-02-07; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-25.

• End Acta petition to the White House will have 25k signatures by Monday. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-01-30; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-25.

• “Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy” —Ahdok; BBC ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

• “There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 21 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

• Federal investigation of Chris Dodd and/or the MPAA for bribery before the end of this year. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01.

• Will have college tomorrow. ( 40% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-01-24; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-24.

• Libya will have a lower HDI next time it is assessed ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by modulus on 2012-01-23; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Creation of a Philosopher’s Stone requires the sacrifice of human life. (a la Shyy Zrgny Nypurzvfg) ( 8% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-22; known on 2016-01-01.

• HP MoR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk. ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2014-01-21.

• HP MoR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did. ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01.

• HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy ( 35% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01.

• SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2021-01-01.

• Before the end of the year, PredictionBook will offer weighted averages for the community confidence in a prediction, and/or offer an API for others to do so. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-20; known on 2013-01-01.

• Both Congressman Duncan and Senator Corker will individually respond to my e-mail protesting SOPA/PIPA like their office said they would. ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2012-01-18; known on 2012-02-18; judged unknown by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.

• I will be allowed to take the internal exams. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-18; known on 2012-03-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-15.

• HonoreDB’s ‘universally correct method’ is a mathematical construct. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-20; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-18.

• A human neural connectome will have been mapped by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

• In the next three days, somebody will post an idea on http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/ that I find novel and intriguing. ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-18.

• Nobody will independently recreate my idea in response to http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-18.

• Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.

• I will drop out of college. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2014-03-31.

• The future of the Euro: “Euro survives”. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16.

• I will tinker with PredictionBook’s source code before April 1 and manage to add a new feature. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-30.

• I will successfully complete an internet programming job (PHP/Rails/something like that) on oDesk and be paid for it before May 1. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known 19 days ago; judged wrong by Anubhav 18 days ago.

• I will not consider any of the next four chapters of HPMR to be as good as chapter 74. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 13 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-03-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-03-12.

• Will submit my database case study before the deadline. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-01-17; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-23.

• Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by RobertLumley on 2012-01-18.

• Iran will not be invaded or attacked this year ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by modulus on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will buy a car before graduating college. ( 4% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-12; known on 2014-05-01.

• HP MoR: ‘I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100’ —shminux ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2014-01-01.

• World will not end or be radically transformed in accordance with apocalyptic expectations of any major world religion (as they are understood prior to the events of 2012). ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by smijer on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• 3rd Test Australia v India at Perth: India Wins ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Akshay Rawat on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-01-17; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-30.

• GJP: #1059 Will Kim Jong-un attend an official, in-person meeting with any G8 head of government* before 1 April 2012? ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.

• GJP: #1055 Will North Korea successfully detonate a nuclear weapon, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater, between 9 January 2012 and 1 April 2012? ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.

• No elected government will hold power in Egypt in 2012 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by _W_ on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31.

• I have heard ‘raging waves’ before. ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-01-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-09.

• “9. Facebook hits 1 billion users” —Brian Breslin ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01.

• First chapter of a fic stemming from my satire of John Galt’s prediction is published by April 1. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.

• Tomorrow morning, I will have negative karma on LessWrong. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-09.

• Copyright ruled unconstitutional by a US court before 2016. ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01.

• Copyright is challenged in a US court as unconstitutional before 2016. The case is not dismissed without hearing. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01.

• Copyright is challenged in a US court as unconstitutional before 2013. The case is not dismissed without hearing. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01.

• Googling ‘real websites’ will throw up at least one amusing hit or autocomplete. (only first-page hits count) ( 20% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-08.

• Googling ‘real websites’ will throw up at least one bizarre hit or autocomplete. (only first-page hits count) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-08; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-08.

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0fyO6ypVYI This super-awesome YouTube video will be taken down by the end of the year. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-12-31.

• The bitcoin protocol will have a fatal weakness that is discovered, leading to the crash of the bitcoin economy. End of year prediction. ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by kiba on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-12-30.

• Yoshimoto Banana will win a Nobel Prize for Literature. ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2046-01-01.

• Won’t have broadband tomorrow morning. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-08.

• Will try out Trello today. ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-08; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.

• Will have changed Windows’ display language to Japanese by next Sunday. ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-15.

• Reading my classmates’ public argument on Facebook will amuse me greatly ( 20% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.

• Reading my classmates’ public argument on Facebook will amuse me moderately. ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.

• Riemann’s Hypothesis and Goldbach’s Conjecture will be resolved before a proof is found of whether White wins or ties chess. —Doron Zeilberger ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2112-01-06.

• Stats assignment for today will include χ^2 or student’s-t distributions. ( 10% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.

• Electronics project due Wednesday. ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.

• I will regret not attending the IAI President’s speech. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-29.

• Someone from the IAI will ring me up on the day of the President’s speech. The call will be regarding my non-attendance. ( 20% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-08.

• ‘Ame Nochi Kumochi Nochi Hare’ was the theme song of one of the ‘Aa Megamisama’ animes/OVAs. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-06; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• I will have stopped wasting time on Omegle by 2:30. (It’s 1:25 now.) ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-06; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• “No IPO for Facebook” —Cringely ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.

• “Facebook will back into an IPO by buying Yahoo” —Mr Windows ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.

• Ballmer will step down as MS CEO and be replaced by Eric Schmidt —Cringely ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01.

• Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 ( 75% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by faws on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01.

• Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

• I will continue wasting time on Omegle until 8 PM. (It’s 5 PM now.) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-05; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-05.

• HP MoR: Harry is Voldemort ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by ahartell on 2012-01-02; known on 2015-01-01.

• The Church of Kopimism will have over 20k members by 2013. Prediction will be withdrawn if membership stats aren’t available. ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-04; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will not miss a single University class between January 4, 2012 and January 8, 2012. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-01-07.

• I will have read “Predictably Irrational” by January 8, 2012. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2012-01-11.

• General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• Taniguchi (from Haruhi) is written valley-mouth. ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-04; judged right by faws on 2012-01-04.

• Kunikida (from Haruhi) is written country-tree-field. ( 20% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-04; judged right by faws on 2012-01-04.

• I have heard Life before. ( 20% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

• Adding the Mecab folder to the PATH variable will make ‘mecab -O wakati input.txt -o output.txt’ work. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-01-03.

• ‘Kimi ni aeta Yokatta’ is from one of the Slayers series. ( 30% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

• ‘Sakura saku’ is the first Love Hina OP. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-01-03; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

• HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.

• HP MOR: EY already planned to incorporate the Peverell tombstone quote before Raemon asked him. ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: The Peverell tombstone (“The last enemy that shall be destroyed is death”) will be quoted or clearly alluded to at some point. ( 72% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2015-01-01.

• At least three papers with the word “connectomics” in their title or abstract will be published in Nature in 2012. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• Share will download one of the files I’m looking for tomorrow. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-04; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

• I will read at least 15 novels of the Maria-sama ga Miteru series in the next 2 years. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2014-01-01.

• I will be defrauded, stolen from, robbed, burgled, or assaulted during my stay in Mexico City. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.

• I will be murdered during my stay in Mexico City. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.

• Eliezer Yudkowsky will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• If Obama is re-elected, then a white male will go on a “shooting spree” and the shooter will mention the “political climate” as a motivating factor. If the antecedent proposition is false, then this prediction will be withdrawn. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• The winner of the 2012 US presidential election will have been the candidate that spent more money on the campaign than any other individual candidate. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• LessWrong: By 2013, date last edited shows up next to comments that have been edited. (Would foil this evil plan, for instance. http://bit.ly/w0lkyQ ) ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• Will have changed Windows’ display language to Japanese by Sunday. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.

• 送る　is pronounced そうる ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

• 切り取り is pronounced きりとり ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

• 完全 is pronounced かんぜん ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

• 最近 is pronounced さいきん ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

• Will have completed the maths FAC for ACET by Saturday. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-07; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• Copying the ja-jp registry key from my laptop to my PC and deleting the en-us key will change my PC’s display language to Japanese. ( 10% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

• Manual install will work on my laptop. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

• Manual install will work on my PC. ( 40% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

• Fix 50528 fixed the problem. ( 40% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

• Repairing .NET client profile will fix the error. ( 10% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

• “There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2012-01-06.

• Trying to install the Japanese language pack produces an error (again). ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

• ‘By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.’ —Kevin ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2021-01-01.

• NGE: 4.0 will be titled “You Can (Not) Stay Here” ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2014-01-01.

• By Jan 1, 2013, there will be a way to directly input your estimated probability distribution across a range of different possible quantities when making a prediction on PB. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• Will change Windows’ display language to Japanese today. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.

• On Jan 1, 2013, there will be 3 or fewer movies from 2011 on imdb’s top 250. (down from current 6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• On Jan 1, 2013, there will be seven or more movies from 2012 on imdb’s top 250. http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• S1 marks are more strongly correlated with C1 attendance than with S1 attendance. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-01.

• C1 marks are more strongly correlated with S1 attendance than C1 attendance. ( 10% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-01.

• Correlation between C1 attendance and marks will be less than 0.7 ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-01.

• Will change Windows’ display language to Japanese today. (‘今日は、Ｗｉｎｄｏｗｓの表語を日本語に変わります’?) ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-01.

• Stranger will claim to live in London. ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-31; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-31.

• Stranger will dc. ( 50% confidence; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

• Stranger is female. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

• Stranger will dc. ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

• Stanger will dc. ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

• Stranger will dc. ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

• Stranger will dc. ( 95% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

• Correlation between C1 marks and S1 marks will be > 0.7 ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

• Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-29; known on 2025-12-29.

• Person I’m chatting with is a girl. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-28; known on 2011-12-28.

• Person I’m chatting with is an engineer/engineering student from India. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-28; known on 2011-12-28; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-28.

• Person I’m chatting with is a girl. ( 10% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-28; known on 2011-12-28; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-28.

• Pauleen turns out to be shorter than me. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-27; known on 2011-12-27; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-27.

• I will play multiplayer UT2004 for over 4 hours before 2012-09 ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by bobpage 14 days ago.

• Retain the 1:45 slot for Mindspark. Or get a slot after 12:30. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-26; known on 2011-12-26; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-26.

• Nivedit won’t sign up for any Stanford courses in January or February, or, if he does, will drop all of them within 5 weeks. ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-25; known on 2012-03-31; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-31.

• The correlation between S1 marks and attendence will be > 0.6 ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-24; known on 2011-12-24; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-24.

• Will try the binary filehandling program out today. ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-23; known on 2011-12-24; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-23.

• I will edit my keyboard layout and build it today. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

• I will have changed Chrome’s language to Japanese by the end of this week. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-26; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

• Will clear third round of Code Junkie. ( 0% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-27.

• Will clear second round of Code Junkie. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-27.

• Will clear first round of Code Junkie. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-28; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-27.

• Call was from the Mindspark guys. ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

• I will try out the binary file program today. ( 40% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

• I will add at least 40 cards to my Maths/Stats/Electronics decks today. ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

• I will do part of the paperwork for the 19th CS practical today. ( 10% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

• Rashi will score over 90% on her boards. ( 85% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known in 13 days.

• Rashi will score over 80% on her boards. ( 100% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known in 13 days.

• Akshay’s file produces no errors on the first run. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

• Akshay finds his lab manual in his bag. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

• “In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones” —Marc Andreessen ( 75% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2021-08-20.

• Within 5 years, 80% of the global population will own at least one mobile computing device (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-digital-divide-will-cease-to-exist.html) ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Morendil on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20.

• An alternative to the US-based Domain Name System will be created and it will be used more widely than the US-based system before 2015. ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2015-01-01.

• SOPA will become US law and either Youtube or Megaupload will be shutdown. ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01.

• SOPA will pass through congress, and then it will not be vetoed. ( 50% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Grognor on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-10-16.

• I will complete at least two SQL practicals tomorrow. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

• I will have completed my Electronics report by the end of this week. ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-26; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-25.

• I will try out the binary file program today. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-21.

• I will have share up and running today. ( 40% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-16; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-16.

• I will have LWT up and running today. ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-16; known on 2011-12-17; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-16.

• I will study Electronics for at least an hour today. ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-16; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-16.

• I will study actuarial science for at least two hours today. ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-16; known on 2011-12-17; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-16.

• I will enjoy Sherlock Holmes tonight. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-15; known on 2011-12-16; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-15.

• I will complete the paperwork for at least 2 CS practicals tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-14; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-15.

• Tomorrow is results day. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-14; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-15.

• I will add at least 20 cards to my M1 deck today. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-14; known on 2011-12-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-14.

• I will study electronics for at least an hour tomorrow. ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-14.

• I will study actuarial science for at least 2 hours tomorrow. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-14.

• I will make an Anki deck for M1 and add at least 20 cards to it today. ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-14; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.

• A law that creates some form of Internet blacklist which requires search engines or ISPs to block specific sites will be passed in the USA before 2014 ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by saturn on 2011-12-13; known on 2014-01-02; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-12-17.

• Before 2013, Google will stop developing Chrome OS, or announce a Chromebook running Android, or announce a netbook/ultrabook-shaped successor running Android ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-12-12; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will complete the paperwork for at least 2 CS practicals tomorrow. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-13; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.

• I will complete the paperwork for at least one CS practical tomorrow. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-13; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.

• PredictionBook’s email notification system will be fixed by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-29.

• Aakash will complete MW3 by midnight. ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-11; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-12.

• I will attend lectures tomorrow. ( 20% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-12.

• Duolingo will have over a million users by 2013. ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will update my Ubuntu install this week. ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-19; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.

• Tonight, I will find a raw txt — I mean, a completely legal copy of the book that has been recommended to me. ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-11.

• UTS will be one of the first 100 universities in the world by 2014. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2014-06-30.

• I will have completed the first 19 CS-2 practicals by the end of this year. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-26.

• “By 2014 Twitter like products coupled with person mounted video cameras will allow people to lifecast every moment of their daily experience. Others in the community of users will be able to subscribe to the lives of those they wish to follow.” ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2014-01-01.

• I will have completed the information collection exercise by Monday. ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-10; known on 2011-12-12; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-10.

• gwern.net will be up and accessible with content in 2020. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2020-01-01.

• The virus warning turns out to be false. ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-07; known on 2011-12-07.

• I will have rewatched the Evangelion movies by the end of this year. ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

• I will start studying for the entry exam today. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-06; known on 2011-12-07; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-06.

• It turns out that Kapil Sibal didn’t actually suggest prescreening UGC using human moderators. ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-05; known on 2012-01-01.

• NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2016-01-01.

• lukeprog will make >2 predictions on PB during 2012. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will add cards to more than one anki deck today. ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-04; known on 2011-12-05; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-04.

• I will have read “Predictably Irrational” by December 4, 2011. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-12-03; known on 2011-12-04; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-12-09.

• Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years. ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2045-12-04.

• Esmat will fail at least 4 papers in his finals. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-04; known in 22 days.

• The new Silk Road URL will be revealed to be a scam/phishing/law enforcement one. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-02; known on 2012-12-02.

• Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 ( 35% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2025-01-01.

• I will have finished all (or all but the last two) Computer Science practicals by the end of this year. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

• Puella Magi Madoka Magica will win a Nihon Taisho SF award ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-21; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.

• Ozzy Osbourne and Margaret Thatcher will both die on the same day. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by YourFriend on 2011-11-26; known on 2012-12-02.

• I will add cards to more than one Anki deck today. ( 45% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-11-30.

• I will add cards to an Anki deck today. ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-30.

• I will start studying for the actuarial entrance exam this week. ( 40% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-05; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-04.

• I will have done the infomation collection exercise for Electronics by the end of this week. ( 40% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-05; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-04.

• I will do the paperwork for the first 5 DBMS exercises today. ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-30.

• gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC) ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

• Carrie Fisher will die before Harrison Ford. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-28; known on 2040-01-01.

• ‘Google will buy Twitter’ in 2011 —Chris O’Brien ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-01.

• The Curiosity rover will successfully land on Mars. ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-09-01.

• A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. ( 24% confidence; 15 wagers; 18 comments )

  Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-23; known on 2021-01-01.

• I will be able to complete 100 good-form push ups in 6 weeks’ time following the program at hundredpushups.com. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-04; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.

• By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.

• By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be deciphered and found to be written in a minority language or an Italian dialect still spoken in Italy today. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.

• Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-28.

• My guinea pig will learn to move in a circle on command in 2 months time. ( 38% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.

• “Orkut to be merged with Google Plus in the near future” —Chris Jolley ( 37% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23.

• Open source MineCraft client by 2017 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2017-01-01.

• Notch (or Mojang) announces open source MineCraft client has been released by 2013. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2013-01-01.

• Obama gets reelected and during that time Hillary Clinton brokers the middle east peace deal between Israel and Palestine for the two state solution. This secures her presidency in 2016. ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by lionflower on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-09-09.

• There will be a new (canon) Haruhi anime by 2015. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2015-01-01.

• There will be a new (canon) Haruhi anime by 2014. ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2014-01-01.

• There will be a new (canon) Haruhi anime by 2013. ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will start studying for the Institute of Actuaries’ entry exam this week. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2011-11-28; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-11-27.

• I will pass the Institute of Actuaries’ entry exam. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-10.

• I will rewatch the Haruhi movie in 2012. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will rewatch the Haruhi anime in 2012. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will read/reread a Haruhi novel in 2012. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will buy a Haruhi novel in 2012. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2013-01-01.

• By 2016, at least one reviewer of Haruhi will accept the theory that Kyon is god. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2016-01-01.

• HP MoR: Methods of Rationality will have an arc/chapter involving Harry getting a harem. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2015-01-01.

• The Haruhi light novel series will conclude by 2015. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2015-01-01.

• lukeprog will receive <50 individual items of feedback through his form in the next month. ( 67% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-11-05; known on 2011-12-05; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-05.

• President Obama will win the Presidential election in 2012. ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-11-11.

• Bitcoin stays >= $60 for at least 72 hours, any time before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 65% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014. ( 52% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2014-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013. ( 12% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• Ron will not be involved in any romantic relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry/Draco will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• Draco/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• Neville/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• Neville/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Draco/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry/Hermione will be the only romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01.

• ‘Facebook will have an IPO within 2 years: 80% confidence’ —Arthur Breitman ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2013-06-07; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-02.

• At least 1 of the 3 books I ordered from Flipkart today will have been delivered by Sunday. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-18; known on 2011-11-20; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-19.

• I will go to college tomorrow. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-18; known on 2011-11-19.

• ‘2021 The first humans land on Mars.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

• “One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2035-01-01.

• “No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

• PredictionBook will be modified sometime before January 10, 2012 months to have some form of moderation. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 13 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-01-10.

• By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140 ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2085-01-01.

• By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2085-01-01.

• The oldest living person on 2020-01-01 will be at least 130 years old. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2020-01-01.

• Harbinger1 will be generally accepted to be a troll by the PB community ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by shokwave on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-20.

• Harbinger1 is a genuine user but unfamiliar with LessWrong tropes ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by shokwave on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-17; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-20.

• “Lindsay Lohan will be dead within 2 years.” ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2013-11-16.

• Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• The worlds first “truely” cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-02-27.

• The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2046-01-01.

• The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2036-01-01.

• The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-01-01.

• “The world’s first lunar tourist” by 2016 ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2016-01-01.

• The “technological singularity” will be a major paradigm shift for humanity. ( 83% confidence; 8 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by steve1interstock on 2011-11-02; known on 2111-11-02; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-05.

• Cognitive Implants will be available for consumer use by 2040. ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-11-17.

• The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant. ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2065-12-01.

• With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2023-07-29.

• The United States, Canada, and Mexico will form the North American Union in August 2020. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2020-08-30.

• A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-11-30.

• Truly “Pilotless” air travel will be the standard in 2050. ( 71% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2050-12-16.

• World currences will become truly “credit-based” by 2021. Smartcards with biometric IDs will be the forefront of a new era in currency marketing. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2021-12-16.

• Contact Sports (football,boxing, kick boxing, most martial arts) will be outlawed in 60% of the world by 2025 due to a medical discovery. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-12-16.

• 50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.

• 10% chance of AI by 2018 —Shane Legg ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2018-01-01.

• Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-17.

• Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-01-16.

• Caffeine will be an illegal substance … in 60 countries by 2027. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-01-01.

• World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons … anywhere … on Earth. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-01-16.

• The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-01-16.

• Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-01.

• The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2039-12-15.

• HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-30.

• A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01.

• The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

• The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

• The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 79% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

• I will continue using PredictionBook at least once a month until 2015. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2015-01-01.

• The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.

• A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• I will get a BSNL broadband connection this week. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-16; known on 2011-11-20; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-11-20.

• In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 25% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2070-12-31.

• I will complete all of the chapter 3 exercises in Introduction to JAVA Programming by 2011-11-19. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.

• Steve Jobs’ brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-10-21; known on 2070-01-01.

• Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 89% confidence; 21 wagers )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07.

• Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the median estimate on this prediction will be 50%. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-01-01.

• Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than or equal to 50%. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-01-01.

• Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be 100%. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-01-01.

• The considerable increase in this sites visitors will inspire some activity in promoting the product. I predict a prediction book facebook page by Dec 31st 2011 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )

  Created by leejhancox on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-31; judged unknown by leejhancox on 2011-12-14.

• Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than 50%. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-01-01.

• Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than or equal to 75%. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-01-01.

• The next Humble Bundle accepts Bitcoin for payment. ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-12-13.

• “Sometime in the next five years, there will be a terroristic attack in or near Las Vegas.” -David Henderson ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14; known on 2016-11-14.

• MoR: ch 78 will mention Amanda Knox ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-20.

• At least one presidential debate of 2012 will include a question about “anti-capitalism”. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-07.

• At least one self-described “anarchist” will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2021-01-01.

• Within two years, at least one exoplanet less than 3 Earth masses will be discovered and verified orbiting within the habitable zone of its star. (Habitable zone=liquid water likely) ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-11-12.

• At the end of 2012, the Poincaré conjecture will remain the only solved Millennium Prize Problem. ( 93% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01.

• The Republicans to control the House of Representatives after 2012 Congressional Elections – Intrade ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01.

• The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged unknown by Houshalter on 2010-06-26.

• The desktop and laptop computer industry will be made obsolete by modular smart phones or mobile devices by 2020. E.g., a smart phone capable of wirelessly interfacing with a keyboard, mouse, and monitor. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. ( 61% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-13.

• At least two first-term Republican congressmen/congresswomen elected in 2010 will be defeated by their Democratic rivals in 2012. ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-08.

• Synthetic meat will be mass-marketed by 2020. ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.

• I will have played Fate/stay night by the end of this year. ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-01.

• “3D printing” will be a multi-billion dollar industry by 2021. ( 71% confidence; 14 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2021-01-01.

• By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using “3D printing” technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

• Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.

• I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by the end of this year. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-17.

• I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by the end of this month. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-17.

• A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

• In 2012, at least one U.S. television station will air an advertisement attacking Mitt Romney by making reference to his Mormonism. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-12-31.

• A third-party or independent candidate running to the right of the Republican nominee will garner at least 1% of the vote in at least one state in the 2012 U.S. presidential election. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-07.

• The technology to render a human effectively invisible (i.e. apparently transparent) to the eye at a distance of less than 100 meters will be publicly demonstrated by 2020. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2020-01-01.

• “By the year 2020 solar electricity will be as cheap or cheaper than that produced by fossil fuels.” ( 68% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01.

• Occupy Wall Street (NYC) will continue at least 30 more days. ( 80% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by torekp on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-23.

• PragmataPro open-sourcing campaign will reach its $220,000 goal ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-01.

• Hypothes.is kickstarter project gets fully funded (see http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/dwhly/1239089754) ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Morendil on 2011-11-06; known on 2011-11-13; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-13.

• 1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers; 13 comments )

  Created by amcknight on 2011-11-11; known on 2036-01-01.

• I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by 18th November. ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-11; known on 2011-11-18; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-17.

• Stewart Alexis Alexander, of the Socialist Party USA, will receive less than 1% of the popular vote in the 2012 presidential election. ( 92% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07.

• LW: average IQ in survey will be at or above the 98th percentile and thus eligible for Mensa membership. ( 67% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-11-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.

• President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 33% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged unknown by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-04.

• The EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011. ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Fledi on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-04.

• Alicorn will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• Evidence of extraterrestrial life will be discovered by 2017. ( 11% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2017-01-01.

• I will still be alive in 2013. ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01.

• German Pirate Party to enter Bundestag in next election. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-10-27.

• The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 72% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01.

• LW: average IQ in survey will be 140-145. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-11-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.

• Season 2 of Panty & Stocking With Garterbelt will be announced. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-12; known on 2012-10-12.

• The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 100% confidence; 41 wagers; 20 comments )

  Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-11-06.

• 90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 45% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.

• By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2050-01-01.

• “By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.” ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.

• “By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.” ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.

• “By 2025, Albert Einstein’s theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.

• The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2026-10-20; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030. ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-06.

• “By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.” ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.

• “By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.

• Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jennifer on 2009-10-19; known on 2025-01-12.

• A state will try to secede from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01.

• “By 2020, historians will agree that the the start of the 21st century also marked the beginning of the “Second” or “New Renaissance.”” ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01.

• Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.

• ‘Construction of Hilton Orbiter Hotel begins by converting the giant shuttle tanks previously allowed to fall back to Earth.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2015-01-01.

• ‘Existing currencies are abolished. The “mega-watt-hour” becomes the universal unit of exchange.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2017-01-01.

• 2012 is not end of this world! ( 99% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by zntneo on 2011-05-04.

• GRRM dies before finishing A Song of Ice and Fire ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2040-01-01.

• ‘General AI will not be made in 2011.’ —JoshuaZ ( 97% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 —Tachi Yamada ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2025-01-01.

• Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2022-12-31.

• ‘By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.’ —David Eagleman ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.

• The model predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it. —Nate Silver ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-31.

• “Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01.

• “2061 Halley’s Comet returns – first landing by humans, And the sensational discovery of both dormant and active life forms vindicates Wickramasinghe and Hoyle’s century-old hypothesis that life exists through space.” —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2062-01-01.

• ‘2057 On October 4, the centenary of Sputnik 1, the dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans on Earth, the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan, and in orbit around Venus, Neptune and Pluto.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2058-01-01.

• “Within 50 years it will be the dominant paradigm within particle physics that all leptons and quarks are each composed of three pairs of two opposite types of black hole and that a pair of these black holes, when merged, form the underlying units from wh ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-11-08; known on 2060-11-07.

• ‘2040 The “Universal Replicator,” based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created – given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.

• ‘2095 The development of a “Space Drive” – a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time – makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.’ ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2096-01-01.

• Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 16% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-12-08; known on 2019-12-08.

• There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 7% confidence; 30 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged unknown by ledflyd on 2009-11-16.

• Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-16; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by komponisto on 2010-09-29.

• Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 17% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by komponisto on 2010-09-29.

• P!=NP, and proven by 2040 —Ken ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2041-01-01.

• The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Jack on 2009-10-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• P=NP, and proven by 12 December 2012 —Dick Lipton ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-12-12.

• “Christopher Hitchens will publicly confess his sins to God, however he finds Him between now and the time of his passing, and accept Christ as his Lord, Savior and pathway to God. He will do this in a meaningful rather than a flippant, facetious or hyp ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-16.

• There will be at least one major outbreak of violence during the Occupy Wall Street protest. ( 45% confidence; 12 wagers; 15 comments )

  Created by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-11; judged wrong by Noetic Jun on 2011-11-11.

• “. The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.” —Dan King ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2021-01-01.

• The Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be deleted within a month. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-11; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-10-12.

• The GDP per capita (PPP) of Hong Kong (judged by the IMF) will exceed that of the USA before 2013. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-31.

• Consensus will be that Koomey’s Law no longer applies in 25 years. ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-10; known on 2036-10-10.

• Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060 ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.

• As of 2012-12-21, the OPERA neutrino anomaly at CERN will not have been reproduced by anyone, anywhere. ( 88% confidence; 14 wagers; 15 comments )

  Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-18.

• “USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01.

• “USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Sep 2012” —Intrade ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-10-01.

• “USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012” —Intrade ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-07-01.

• “USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Mar 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-31.

• “[Chinese growth] will hit an average of 3% well before the end of the decade” —Michael Pettis ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2020-01-01.

• 2012: Chinese GDP growth 8-9% —Michael Pettis ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2013-01-01.

• Before January 1, 2030, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore’s algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2030-01-01.

• Before January 1, 2020, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore’s algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2020-01-01.

• NGE: There will not be a live-action Evangelion movie before 2020 ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2020-01-01.

• (All) Wikipedias’ total editor base will be >=95,000 in June 2012. ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-07-01.

• HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black ( 17% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-09-04.

• HP MoR: Voldemort never intended Harry’s own death on the night of his parents’ death. ( 55% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-09-04.

• Before January 1, 2045, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore’s algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2045-01-01.

• The Richard Dawkins article on Conservapedia will in one year have in its stable form a picture of at least one of Hitler, Stalin, or Lenin ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04.

• NGE: 3.0 will be released in 2012 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-01-01.

• NGE: There will not be a live-action Evangelion movie before 2015 ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• Google + will have under 10 million users by 2013 ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-14; known on 2013-01-01.

• By 2020, a former US government official will come forward to say that they were involved in planning the 9/11 attacks. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01.

• ‘The Internet has a greater reach than television’ by/during 2014 (America) ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-01-01.

• India’s first manned spaceflight by 2017. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01.

• NGE Rebuild: In 4.0, there will be an epilogue set years later ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01.

• Eliezer Yudkowsky’s book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04.

• NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will be renamed to “Kaworu Nagisanami” ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01.

• NGE Rebuild: Gendo will, in person, physically attack Shinji in 3.0 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2013-01-01.

• NGE Rebuild: Gendo’s ultimate goal in 4.0 will not be to reunite with Yui, but to turn her into a god-like entity ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01.

• NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo, in his hand ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01.

• NGE Rebuild: Kaji will kill Misato ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01.

• NGE Rebuild: Kaji’s killer (if any) will be shown clearly, on-screen, and not off-screen ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01.

• Steve Jobs’s will shall donate >=50% of his wealth to charity ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01.

• Steve Jobs’s will shall donate 0-10% of his wealth to charity ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07.

• Steve Jobs’s will shall donate >=99% of his wealth to charity. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01.

• “No American Soap Operas by 2015” —Ken ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• the Occupy Wall Street protest will begin suffering from communicable diseases and this cause the authorities to crack down and remove them all. ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.

• “I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 13% confidence; 15 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08.

• Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01.

• “I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2100-01-01.

• Facebook will be less visitors in 2011 ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Laus_CB on 2011-01-04; known on 2011-11-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-01.

• Harold Camping: “the whole world…will be annihilated together with the whole physical world” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-10-22.

• “the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.

• A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 94% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Morendil on 2011-11-03.

• ‘I predict…a major earthquake, magnitude seven or more will happen within twenty kilometers of a line from nagano city, nagano to matsudo, chiba’ ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.

• A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10.

• By 2020, one of Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, George W. Bush, Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton, Richard Myers, or Peter Pace will state he had advanced knowledge of the 9/11 attacks or helped plan those attacks. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01.

• No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 83% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by bobpage on 2011-10-02.

• Robin Hanson’s brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 42% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.

• ‘Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%’ —taw ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2021-01-01.

• ‘We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months.’ —Jason Calacanis ( 50% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-16; known on 2012-11-15; judged unknown by Houshalter on 2011-05-17.

• “I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.” ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2100-01-01.

• “An all-new Star Wars film will be released to theatres this century.” ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2100-01-01.

• “In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions.” ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2108-12-31.

• Earth’s Rotation will be used as a new energy source, in future! ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-20; known on 2111-04-20.

• “At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.” ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2150-01-01.

• In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01.

• “By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01.

• ‘. The Dead Sea Scrolls managed to survive by remaining lost for a couple millennia. Now that they’ve been located and preserved in a museum, they’re probably doomed. I give them two centuries – tops.’ —Danny Hillis ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-22; known on 2195-02-16.

• CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein’s general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-09.

• Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Citizen553 on 2009-11-18; known on 2159-11-18; judged unknown by Jack on 2010-01-26.

• Before the year 2300, there will be a Chabad on Mars. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-05; known on 2300-01-01.

• Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 3009-10-17.

• ‘Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year’ ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged unknown by Swimmy on 2011-10-19.

• Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 47% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.