Predictions by Ben Doherty

• I will run 4 miles in 30 minutes or less before 2013. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo 10 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will deadlift 1.5x my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with equal to or less than 1 minute rests before 2013. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo 10 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will squat 1.5x my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with equal to or less than 1 minute rests before 2013. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo 10 days ago; known on 2013-01-01.

• Nosek’s project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=30% of them are failed replications. ( 70% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by lweismantel 30 days ago; known on 2013-04-01.

• 20 or more people will show for the next Sydney CDG ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-19; known 20 days ago; judged right by Ben Doherty 19 days ago.

• iphone 5 won’t have significantly different form factor than iphone 4S ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2013-01-01.

• 9 or more students will present in today’s reviews (my studio) ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-13; known on 2012-04-13; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-13.

• My students will take me up on the offer of a case of beer for today’s reviews. ( 55% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-13; known on 2012-04-13; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-13.

• I will enjoy tonight’s dinner with a bunch of unkonwn friends. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by happyday on 2012-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged right by happyday on 2012-04-13.

• One or more people from the studio cohort (other than me) will contribute to the #utsapoc feed on the http://utsapocalypse.net/ site before the end of term ( 49% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-11; known in 23 days.

• One or more people from outside the studio cohort (other than me) will contribute to the #utsapoc feed on the http://utsapocalypse.net/ site before the end of term. ( 51% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-11; known in 23 days.

• My husband won’t sleep before 3am today because he can’t finish his vedio clip for design. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by happyday on 2012-04-10; known on 2012-04-10; judged right by happyday on 2012-04-11.

• ‘Vertical farms are appearing in many cities’ by 2025 ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged unknown by bobpage on 2011-10-09.

• Over the next year or two, Apple will bring Cocoa development to the Windows desktop via an App Store that sells titles to a broad audience — Daniel Eran Dilger http://bit.ly/aXTPXK ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-11-15; known on 2012-12-31.

• ‘Terabyte SD cards will be available’ in 2014 ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01.

• Windows will have greater than 6% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now) ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-03-01.

• Windows will have greater than 12% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now). ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-02; known on 2013-03-01.

• Apple will begin to sell a third tablet-style device in addition to the iPad and iPod touch/iPhone lines. This device will not have the same screen resolution (excluding factors of 2) as one of the other devices. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-04-09; known on 2013-04-09.

• By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-04-08; known on 2051-01-01.

• A stronger stimulant than caffeine will be widely legally available in the UK by 2022, and be used and sold in a similar way ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Michael Stevens on 2012-04-06; known on 2022-01-01.

• I will get ‘pass’ for the city assignment 01. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by williamycai on 2012-04-05; known 4 days ago; judged right by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-10.

• i bought a notebook to record all my predictions today. i predict that i will use the notebook more than three months. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by happyday on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-08-08.

• I won’t touch my psp vita until May…… ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by happyday on 2012-04-04; known 14 days ago.

• During the easter holidays, we will drive to a random forest and listen to owl city’s ‘fire flies’ with all the car lights off…… ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by happyday on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-04-10.

• I will be get a first this year ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-06-25.

• I’m going to book sky diving and attened it during the easter holiday. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by happyday on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-08; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-04-10.

• i will fly to london and watch olympics this year. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by happyday on 2012-04-03; known on 2012-08-08.

• i won’t make any compliants this week and there will be no argument between me and my hubby until the easter holiday finished ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by happyday on 2012-04-02; known on 2012-04-18; judged right by happyday on 2012-04-10.

• i think that i will wake up really early tomorrow morning ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by Amaleh on 2012-04-02; known on 2012-04-03.

• I will win my Yahoo Fantasy Basketball round 7-2. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-02.

• There will be a maximum of 3 people who have further contributed to my stats on google docs by Tuesday. ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-04-03; judged right by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-02.

• There will be 2 or more designDEVS or easyDEVS based papers at SimAUD 2013 ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-04-01.

• Requesting facebook password for a job will be against the law in at least 1 state or against federal laws/regulations by end of 2013 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker 14 days ago.

• we will going away (gold coast, carins)during easter holiday ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by happyday on 2012-03-30; known 29 days ago; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-04-05.

• Murder rate has bottomed in the US (2013 murder rate > 2011 according to fbi stats http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr) ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-31; known on 2014-06-16.

• Accountability metrics will become a significant topic ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-09-28.

• Mobile app suites will emerge as a paid for layer on top of vanilla OS ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-09-28.

• Screens will not be the primary form of interface with mobile devices by 2025 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-24; known on 2025-01-16.

• I will have reduced excess fat to the point that I will have visible abs. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-03-31.

• There will be 20 or more people at tonight’s compDesGrp session ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-19; known on 2012-03-19; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-19.

• Nobody will have competed all of the requirements for Tuesday’s class ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-18; known on 2012-03-20; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-20.

• I will complete at least one of the new Stanford online classes (I signed up for 6 of them) ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Isaac on 2011-11-18; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-04-15.

• 90% of us will be drunk on the first night of camp ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by dkim126 on 2012-03-08; known on 2012-03-09; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-13.

• “it is probable that Kickstarter will distribute more money this year than the NEA National Endowments for the Arts” – Yancey Strickler http://goo.gl/5ZNrA ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-08; known on 2013-01-01.

• I’ll complete 1 or more tasks from my rtm list tomorrow ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-08; known on 2012-03-09.

• I will still be using the RescueTime tracking tool after the 14 day trial is over. ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-08; known on 2012-03-22; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-23.

• The US will have have laws or regulations to outlaw normal people destroying drones by end of 2022 (10 years from now) ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 19 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2022-12-31.

• At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020. ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01.

• I’ll complete 10 or more tasks from my rtm list tomorrow. ( 75% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-07; known on 2012-03-08.

• The week end class trip won’t happen due to rain ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by wajdiatwah on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-03-09; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-13.

• Flight TT543 will be within 10 minutes of on time arrival into Melbourne ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-02; known on 2012-03-03; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-05.

• JG will bail on this project ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-01; known on 2012-03-04; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-05.

• “[O]n March 14th 2014 there will not be any Apple hardware products for sale at JB Hi-Fi stores” Ruslan Kogan ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-28; known on 2014-03-14.

• I’ll make it out of studio by 4:45 ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-28.

• I will have enough student’s to run my studio ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-28.

• I’ll get a flight quote by 6pm ( 60% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-02-27; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27.

• My students will log over 100 comments between now and the end of semester. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known in 7 days.

• There will be 50 or more comments by external parties on our new site within 2 months of it launching. ( 30% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known in 7 days.

• There will be 100 or more comments on our new site within 2 months of it launching ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known in 7 days.

• I will have done more than 5000cals of exercise by the end of Friday ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-03-02; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-02.

• We will have a working personal interaction tracking system in our office ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-12-31.

• We will have a working people tracking system in our office ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-12-31.

• 2025: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2025-01-01.

• 2025: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2025-01-01.

• 2020: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01.

• 2020: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 20% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01.

• I will complete my paper to a standard acceptable to the conference review panel. ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-01; known on 2012-02-08; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-25.

• Both RTC abstracts will be accepted ( 35% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-11-07; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-25.

• Dan’s RTC abstract will be accepted ( 54% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-11-07; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-25.

• My RTC abstract will be accepted ( 66% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-11-07; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-25.

• I will go to the gym 3 times in the next week. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-16; known on 2011-10-23; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-23.

• I will go to the gym tomorrow ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by isaacn16 on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-18; judged wrong by isaacn16 on 2011-10-18.

• I will drink a protein shake every day in the next 7 days. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-09; known on 2011-10-16; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-10-16.

• I will record a sub 20 minute time in any ABC bi that I do this season – http://goo.gl/BCmJt ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-03-30; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-23.

• I will record a sub 20 minute time in the first ABC bi that I do http://goo.gl/BCmJt ( 15% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-10-10; known on 2011-10-14; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-10-17.

• I will enter at least 10 Boy Charlton Biathlons this season – http://goo.gl/BCmJt ( 55% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-03-30; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-25.

• Gaddafi will be killed or captured ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Dylan on 2011-09-08; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by Dylan on 2011-09-30.

• A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10.

• “The first person to do a special [specific] drawing for this thing will get fired” LBJ LBJ will be the first person to do a specific drawing for this purpose. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-09-21; known on 2012-09-21.

• By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Konkvistador on 2011-07-21; known on 2051-02-01.

• my next laptop will leave it’s former owner and be ready to rebuild today ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-26; known on 2011-07-26; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-26.

• UTS will be one of the first 100 universities in the world by 2014. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2014-06-30.

• We will be using a cloud based rendering solution for animations in under 2 months ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-09-02; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-09-02.

• I will not drink any alcohol till final design presentation. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Eunseo on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-06-15; judged right by Eunseo on 2011-06-17.

• We will have submitted registration documents for the competition by 6pm on Monday ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-05-30; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-30.

• We will have submitted registration documents for the competition by 6pm on Friday. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-25; known on 2011-05-27; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-29.

• 5 or fewer students will present and cover all 4 requirements. ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-25; known on 2011-05-27; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-27.

• At 3pm this Friday there will be 5 or fewer projects pinned up. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-25; known on 2011-05-27; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-27.

• No more than 5 of my students will meet today’s pin up deadline ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-24; known on 2011-05-24; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-24.

• There will be crossover of athletes from the paralympics to the Olympics in the 2020 games. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-20; known on 2020-01-16.

• more than 10 students will come to my class today ( 45% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-13; known on 2011-05-14; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-14.

• More than 5 students will come to my class today ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-13; known on 2011-05-14; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-14.

• at least one of NT’s next 5 designs will contain the ‘drawn line’ theme in a prominent way. ( 65% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-13; known on 2013-05-13.

• By 2014 scientists will come up with the discovery of the evolution of some animals that look like humans. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by puya on 2011-05-09; known on 2014-05-14.

• Bin Laden is still alive! ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.

• The coastal trail will take less than 8 hours tomorrow ( 85% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-01; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-01.

• The coastal trail will take less than 6 hours tomorrow ( 65% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-01.

• The coastal trail will take less than 5 hours tomorrow ( 55% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-01.

• 14/14 of my students will submit work on Wednesday that fulfils the minimum requirements. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-05; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-05.

• Australian dollar will strengthen to 112 US cents by the end of September ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-28; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-01.

• Cannabis will be legalised within Australia by 2012 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.

• “Fukushima 1 evacuation radius to be 30km or more before midnight ET 30 April 2011” – Intrade ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-01; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-01.

• At least one group member will not have read the assignment for tomorrow. ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-25; known on 2011-04-26; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26.

• At least one group member will not show up before 11am tomorrow. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-25; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26.

• There will be an massive earthquake in the midde east next year. ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by puya on 2011-04-17; known on 2012-12-30.

• My diarrhoea will stop tomorrow. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by alvinTng on 2011-04-21; known on 2011-04-22; judged wrong by alvinTng on 2011-04-23.

• I will write on blog 3 times during Easter holiday. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Eunseo on 2011-04-20; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Eunseo on 2011-04-26.

• There will be more than 4 people in attendance at the Sydney Less Wrong meetup at some point while I’m there. http://bit.ly/dXMiL0 ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-22; known on 2011-04-24; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-23.

• The high school student that FY is meeting today will accept the request to develop the iOS app that she wants. ( 80% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-18; known on 2011-04-18; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-18.

• Project and finance management will turn from 6 credit points to 12 credit points by the end of this year. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2012-01-10.

• Nuclear problems in Japan will be solved at the end of April ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by minhduc on 2011-04-01; known on 2011-04-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.

• 5 or more people will attend tonight’s compDesGrp session (http://bit.ly/f89qQt) ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-11; known on 2011-04-11; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-11.

• 10 or more people will attend tonight’s compDesGrp session (http://bit.ly/f89qQt) ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-11; known on 2011-04-11; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-11.

• “Rare pink diamond to fetch £7m at auction” ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-09; known on 2011-04-12; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-13.

• Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged unknown by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-29.

• Immigration will reduce by 50 percent until the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by puya on 2011-03-30; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2012-01-10.

• I will write 2 blog posts daily for 5 consecutive days starting tomorrow. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-28; known on 2011-04-04; judged right by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-04-02.

• My flight will take off within +- 5 minutes of the scheduled time (QF1) ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-24; known on 2011-03-26; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-28.

• I will have someone sat in the seat next to me at some point in my flight ( 90% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-24; known on 2011-03-26; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-28.

• David Percival will finish all of the requirements of Ben’s studio by week 9 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by puya on 2011-03-23; known on 2011-04-27; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-27.

• War of the worlds DVD will be sent to be on Friday… ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by alvinTng on 2011-03-23; known on 2011-03-25; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-03-26.

• The 2012 Apocalypse will end up being a hoax. ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by seansman15@hotmail.com on 2011-03-23; known on 2012-12-23.

• Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 December 2011 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-21.

• Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 March 2011 ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-03-31; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-31.

• Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 September 2011 ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-10-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-30.

• The price of petrol at the pump will reach $1.55 at some point before the end of April – http://bit.ly/eUr3eE ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-02.

• Ben will come ten minutes late to class tomorrow. ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by puya on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-03-22; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22.

• There will be a pandemic within the next 5 years. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-21; known on 2016-03-21.

• With current perforation settings the façade for the bank building will meet or exceed requirements for shading according to my testing. ( 87% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-20; known on 2011-03-23; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-21.

• she will ask me hangout again and play pool! ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-15; known on 2011-03-30; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-03-31.

• I will go to camping in Blue mountains on Sunday. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Ye on 2011-03-16; known on 2011-03-20; judged wrong by Ye on 2011-05-22.

• By the end of 2012 the amount of international students at UTS will become less than 10 percent. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by puya on 2011-03-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-20.

• The international media will not mention anything about Japan’s Earthquake on next Monday ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by wael on 2011-03-17; known on 2011-03-22; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22.

• Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-28.

• I will take IELTS on 19th March, morning and i will get 6.0 ! ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-14; known on 2011-04-30; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-03-18.

• All clubs which are play home at second game in 1/8 Round Champions League will get into next round 1/4! ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-14; known on 2011-03-18; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-17.

• Mad Max 4 will be released by Christmas 2014 ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-14; known on 2014-12-25.

• I will attend at least nine yoga classes ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-11; known on 2011-03-21; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-20.

• less than 12 students will attend my class today ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-10; known on 2011-03-11; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-11.

• I will receive the books I ordered from amazon by April. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-10; known on 2011-04-01; judged right by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-21.

• I will wake up early tomorrow, and go to library before 10 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-10; known on 2011-03-11; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-03-11.

• Our Qantas flight to Adelaide will depart Sydney on time tomorrow. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-10; known on 2011-03-12; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-03-13.

• I will win $50 in prediction competition at the end of this term. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Eunseo on 2011-03-09; known on 2011-06-10; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-06-17.

• I will remember to have lunch before 2pm for the next three days. ( 65% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-08; known on 2011-03-11; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-11.

• We will have released a nav-tool beta by the end of next week ( 65% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-07; known on 2011-03-18; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-20.

• I will aquire a copy of ‘Children of the Dust’ and watch the TV series in an attempt to develop an understanding of post-apocalyptic survival following nuclear war. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-07; known on 2011-03-14; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-03-14.

• I will finish reading the drowned world & island, and will read at least 2 of the papers by tuesday ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-03; known on 2011-03-07; judged wrong by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-07.

• I will call my brother on his birthday. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-03; known on 2011-03-06; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-07.

• Iphone 5 shape is same as Iphone 4, the onlything different is the antenna will change a bit! ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-02; known on 2012-03-16.

• The final funnel form will be elliptical ( 40% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-02; known on 2011-05-02; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-02.

• The final funnel form will be oval ( 52% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-02; known on 2011-05-02; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-02.

• I will complete both canyons (measured from bike to bike) in under 10 hours (http://bit.ly/eftmXP) ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-19; known on 2011-02-20; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-20.

• I will complete both canyons (measured from bike to bike) in under 6 hours (http://bit.ly/eftmXP) ( 50% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-19; known on 2011-02-20; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-20.

• 80% of my students will have signed up to prediction book and make eight or more predictions by the end of May ( 40% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-16; known on 2011-05-30; judged right by DavidPercival on 2011-03-01.

• the new guy will continually to wear well ironed shirts into the office until at least the 10th of March 2011. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-16; known on 2011-03-10; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-24.

• 80% of my students will sign up to prediction book and make two or more predictions by the end of March ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-11; known on 2011-04-01; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-16.

• more than 4 chavs will get on my bus before I get off ( 65% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-30; known on 2009-12-30; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-31.

• I will track more than 4 hours of useful work before 6pm tomorrow ( 75% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-28; known on 2009-12-29; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-29.

• My visitors will not arrive before 12pm ( 70% confidence )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-27; known on 2009-12-28; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-28.

• I will be able to run 20km in under 2 hours by July 1st ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-26; known on 2010-07-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2010-07-02.