Statistics
| Predicted Certainty | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Certainty | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | |
| Sample Size | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Predictions by bogdanb
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Generic AI won’t happen in the next 10 years. ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by bogdanb 10 months ago; known in over 9 years; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 100% confidence; 25 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb 10 months ago; known in about 1 month; judged unknown by Morendil 10 months ago.
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The sun will not become a nova during this year. ( 100% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bogdanb 10 months ago; known in about 1 month; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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Generic molecular assemblers won’t be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don’t come from bulk chemistry. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by bogdanb 10 months ago; known in over 19 years.
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Apophis will not hit earth ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Gerrit over 2 years ago; known in over 18 years; judged right by gwern about 1 month ago.
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Shoot Em Up is way more awesome than Sin City 2 will be ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Adam over 2 years ago; known 3 months ago; judged wrong by gwern 7 days ago.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 72% confidence; 37 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by MBlume 11 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by bogdanb 9 months ago.
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There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jack 11 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 21 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max 11 months ago; known in 3 months; judged unknown by gwern 11 days ago.