Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 0% | 50% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
Predictions by ceterisparibus
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A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. ( 24% confidence; 15 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-23; known on 2021-01-01.
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Occupy Wall Street (NYC) will continue at least 30 more days. ( 80% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by torekp on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-23.
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I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by 18th November. ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-11; known on 2011-11-18; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-17.
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I won’t sleep tonight ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-13.
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By 2016, Legislation will have been introduced (not necessarily passed) banning home solar generation on grounds of safety. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ARFisk on 2011-11-12; known on 2016-11-12.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. ( 61% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-13.