Statistics
| Predicted Certainty | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Certainty | 0% | 50% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
Predictions by d403
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Lara Bingle and Michael Clarke will split up in the next three months ( 100% confidence )
Created by d403 5 months ago; known about 1 month ago; judged right by harmonix 4 months ago.
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Prediction book will get some desperately needed moderation. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jack 5 months ago; known 4 months ago; judged wrong by al3xal3x 4 months ago.
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Spencer Tunick will be charged with mass-scale indecent exposure ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by d403 5 months ago; known 4 months ago; judged wrong by gwern about 4 hours ago.
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Barack Obama will be shot by American white-supremist extremists within the next two weeks ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by d403 5 months ago; known 4 months ago; judged wrong by Kyrisch 4 months ago.
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The Australian Interest rate will increase to 4.5% by the end of 2010. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by d403 5 months ago; known in 5 months; judged right by gwern about 7 hours ago.
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Cannabis will be legalised within Australia by 2012 ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by d403 5 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by Danni 4 months ago.
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Brad Pitt will come out of the closet. ( 60% confidence )
Created by d403 5 months ago; known 4 months ago; judged wrong by Jack 4 months ago.
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If Australia win the Ashes back, Ricky ponting will retire from all forms of the game. ( 89% confidence )
Created by d403 5 months ago; known in 6 months.
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Peter Garret will split from Labour to form another political party within the next six months. ( 98% confidence )
Created by d403 5 months ago; known in about 1 month.
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There will be five stabbings in the CBD this weekend. ( 70% confidence )
Created by d403 5 months ago; known 4 months ago.