Predictions by dakyne

• Spot gold price will touch at least $2000 by December 31, 2012. ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers )

  Created by dakyne on 2011-07-16; known on 2013-01-01.

• Silver spot price will touch $50 or higher by December 31, 2012. ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by dakyne on 2011-07-14; known on 2013-01-01.

• UCSB Gauchos men’s basketball team will win 20 or more games in the 2011 – 2012 regular season. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by dakyne on 2011-07-14; known on 2012-03-04; judged wrong by dakyne on 2012-03-05.

• The SIU Saluki men’s basketball team will win 15 or more games in the 2010 – 2011 regular season, including the MVC tournament. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by dakyne on 2010-10-07; known on 2011-03-07; judged wrong by dakyne on 2011-03-07.

• ARNA will be approved by the FDA on October 22, 2010 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2010-10-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-24.

• ARNA will have a Advisory Committee vote with at least 75% members voting for approval ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2010-09-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-17.

• The price of gold will exceed $1300 USD / oz at some point in the next 6 months. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2010-12-16; judged right by dakyne on 2010-09-27.

• UCSB men’s soccer team will reach the 2010 Soccer Cup, college soccer’s final four. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by dakyne on 2010-08-11; known on 2010-12-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-10.

• UCSB Gauchos men’s basketball team will be the #1 seed in the 2011 Big West Conference tournament. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by dakyne on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-03-06; judged wrong by dakyne on 2011-03-06.

• ALXA’s Staccato will be FDA-approved on October 11, 2010. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

  Created by dakyne on 2010-08-11; known on 2010-10-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-11.

• Anti-obesity drug Qnexa will be denied FDA approval (or delayed). ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by dakyne on 2010-07-30; known on 2010-10-28; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-29.

• “Moore’s Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.” ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2052-01-01; judged unknown by Traubert on 2010-08-11.

• “Microsoft will be have the largest market capitalization of any publicly traded company in the world by 2015.” ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-04.

• California will receive a bailout from the Federal government in 2010. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 18 comments )

  Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by dakyne on 2010-11-03.

• The spot price of silver will be $20/ounce or higher on December 31, 2010. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• Arena Pharmaceuticals’ anti-obesity drug Lorcaserin will be FDA-approved by December 31, 2010. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

• The spot price of NYMEX crude oil will be $100/barrel or higher on December 31, 2015. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2015-12-31.

• The spot price of gold will be $1200/ounce or above on December 31, 2010. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by dakyne on 2009-12-09; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.