Statistics
| Predicted Certainty | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Certainty | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions by dakyne
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ARNA will be approved by the FDA on October 22, 2010 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mo_Money_2make 17 days ago; known in about 1 month.
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ARNA will have a Advisory Committee vote with at least 75% members voting for approval ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mo_Money_2make 17 days ago; known in 7 days.
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The price of gold will exceed $1300 USD / oz at some point in the next 6 months. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Matt Newport 3 months ago; known in 3 months.
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UCSB men’s soccer team will reach the 2010 Soccer Cup, college soccer’s final four. ( 5% confidence )
Created by dakyne 29 days ago; known in 3 months.
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UCSB Gauchos men’s basketball team will be the #1 seed in the 2011 Big West Conference tournament. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne 29 days ago; known in 5 months.
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ALXA’s Staccato will be FDA-approved on October 11, 2010. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne 29 days ago; known in about 1 month.
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Anti-obesity drug Qnexa will be denied FDA approval (or delayed). ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dakyne about 1 month ago; known in about 1 month.
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“Moore’s Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.” ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern about 1 month ago; known in over 41 years; judged unknown by Traubert 29 days ago.
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“Microsoft will be have the largest market capitalization of any publicly traded company in the world by 2015.” ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern about 1 month ago; known in over 4 years.
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California will receive a bailout from the Federal government in 2010. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by dakyne 4 months ago; known in 3 months; judged unknown by gwern 28 days ago.
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The spot price of silver will be $20/ounce or higher on December 31, 2010. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dakyne 4 months ago; known in 3 months.
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Arena Pharmaceuticals’ anti-obesity drug Lorcaserin will be FDA-approved by December 31, 2010. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne 4 months ago; known in 3 months.
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The spot price of NYMEX crude oil will be $100/barrel or higher on December 31, 2015. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dakyne 4 months ago; known in over 5 years.
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The spot price of gold will be $1200/ounce or above on December 31, 2010. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dakyne 9 months ago; known in 3 months.