Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Predictions by datadataeverywhere
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Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 17% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by komponisto on 2010-09-29.
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A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01.
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Business models based on pay-per-click (as Google’s) will be shown to have failed by 2012. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2012-12-16.
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Memristor products will be commercially available in 2013. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-05; known on 2014-01-01.
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Subversion will not be released in 2010. ( 98% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-24; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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“22 nanometer chips are in mass production” during 2011 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by bobpage on 2012-01-03.
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By 2014, Iran will have detonated a nuclear bomb. ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2014-01-01.
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‘Terabyte SD cards will be available’ in 2014 ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 86% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.