Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
| Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Predictions by drewyallop
-
Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.
-
Osama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
-
I won’t get the swine flu during this year. ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by popojala on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.