Predictions by Emanuel Rylke

• PredictionBook will display users’ Brier scores by the end of this year. ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01.

• Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern 18 days ago; known on 2022-05-01.

• “There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 21 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

• the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. —S. Jay Olshansky ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-06-29; known on 2100-01-01.

• “China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.” ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2085-01-01.

• “By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.” ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

• The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2039-12-15.

• Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-01-16.

• With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2023-07-29.

• ‘Sweden becomes the first oil-free country’ by 2021 ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01.

• “We will find life on Mars within ‘the next decade’, and discover a ‘ubiquitous’ bacterial ecosystem.” —Peter Diamandis ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2021-01-01.

• United States will invade Australia and take over ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2020-12-31.

• The United States, Canada, and Mexico will form the North American Union in August 2020. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2020-08-30.

• Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-28.

• Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.

• Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 17% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by komponisto on 2010-09-29.

• ‘the countries of Iceland, Macedonia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia have all joined the ranks of the EU member nations’ by 2018 ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01.

• “I predict Google will be the biggest and most important company in the world in 5-8 years.” —Jason Kottke ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2017-08-07.

• Clojure becomes dominant JVM language on GitHub ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2016-10-16.

• “The world’s first lunar tourist” by 2016 ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2016-01-01.

• There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 7% confidence; 30 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged unknown by ledflyd on 2009-11-16.

• “Within five years the Chinese government will have embarked on a major eugenics program designed to mass produce super-geniuses. (40%)” —James Miller ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2015-10-06.

• I will continue using PredictionBook at least once a month until 2015. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a human ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Quirrel will have Hermione killed with Harry as a witness ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01.

• Some group in Pakistan has already developed a super-intelligence (as of 2009). ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• German Pirate Party to enter Bundestag in next election. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by muflax on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-10-27.

• ‘NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013’ —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-31.

• ‘NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2014’ —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2014-12-31.

• ‘NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012’ —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-12-31.

• HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy killed herself accidentally eg. by Fiendfyre (analogous to Goyle) ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains James Potter ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01.

• Apple (AAPL) will buy Vimeo. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Nieskens on 2011-10-17; known on 2012-12-16.

• Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged unknown by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-29.

• Alicorn will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• predictionbook.com, as it functions now, will still exist by 2015. ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-01-01.

• An alternative to the US-based Domain Name System will be created and it will be used more widely than the US-based system before 2015. ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2015-01-01.

• “I expect Apple to move to a modular architecture where the building blocks for high performance computers are generally Mac Minis.” —Robert X Cringely ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known in 13 days.

• Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24.

• “Immortal mice by 2015” ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01.

• HP MoR: Severus Snape is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Ami on 2012-04-18; known on 2014-01-01.

• I will still learn French by the end of the year. ( 95% confidence )

  Created by Emanuel Rylke 24 days ago; known on 2012-12-31.

• Planetary Resources won’t be mining asteroids by 2020 ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker 24 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.

• “There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2012-01-06.

• “Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31.

• “China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31.

• “United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-21.

• Everblue comic: Hau (aka Haumea) is the sister of Dagger. ( 20% confidence )

  Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-04-11; known on 2013-04-11.

• Over the next year or two, Apple will bring Cocoa development to the Windows desktop via an App Store that sells titles to a broad audience — Daniel Eran Dilger http://bit.ly/aXTPXK ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-11-15; known on 2012-12-31.

• Google will actually produce Google Maps 8-Bit for NES (http://goo.gl/zA1BJ), and will announce this before the end of April. ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-03-31; known 18 days ago; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke 18 days ago.

• Windows will have greater than 6% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now) ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-03-01.

• Windows will have greater than 12% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now). ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-02; known on 2013-03-01.

• Chrome will be ahead of Internet Explorer (all versions) in the StatCounter daily Global Stats for next Sunday. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by faws on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-03-05; judged wrong by faws on 2012-03-05.

• 2020: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 20% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01.

• I will have taken over at least one country by 2035. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-13; known on 2035-01-01.

• The smallest federated wiki will move beyond the stage of proof of concept this year. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

  Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-02-16; known on 2012-12-31.

• I will eat a slice of bread with cheese next Friday. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-10; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-02-10.

• There will be working blueprints for a space elevator by 2017. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by iconreforged on 2012-01-27; known on 2018-01-01.

• General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• Apple’s share in the smartphone market will collapse to 10% or less by the end of this year. ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by kiba on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-30.

• “Facebook will back into an IPO by buying Yahoo” —Mr Windows ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.

• I will apply for a job as a software developer. ( 30% confidence )

  Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-12-31.

• 2012 i will enter a romantic relationship that will last longer than 30 days. ( 4% confidence )

  Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-30.

• The 2012 Apocalypse will end up being a hoax. ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by seansman15@hotmail.com on 2011-03-23; known on 2012-12-23.

• “Intel buys [merges with] Qualcomm” —Cringely ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01.

• I will consume a story (book, movie, comic…) in french primarly for enjoyment and not language learning. ( 45% confidence )

  Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-12-31.

• No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• ‘By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.’ —Kevin ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2021-01-01.

• Germany will not leave Euro by end of 2012 ( 93% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by procran on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2012-01-01.

• Obama gets reelected and during that time Hillary Clinton brokers the middle east peace deal between Israel and Palestine for the two state solution. This secures her presidency in 2016. ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by lionflower on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-09-09.

• Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 ( 75% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by faws on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: ‘I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100’ —shminux ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2014-01-01.

• Apple smartphones will have under 30% US market share at the end of 2012 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-12-31.

• Android will be the dominant smartphone platform by the end of 2012. The market share, as determined by number of devices, will be greater for Android smartphones than Blackberry, Symbian, iOS (iPhone), or any platforms not yet launched. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by blanu on 2010-08-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10.

• In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted). ( 48% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-09-20; known on 2021-09-16.

• The Pirate Party will enter the Parliament of Berlin (Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus) in the 2011 election. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by faws on 2011-09-23.

• Google will sell all hardware developing and producing parts of Motorola Mobile before 1. Jan 2012 ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.