Predictions by endoself

• A nuclear device (bomb, granade etc) with a strength of more than 1 kiloton will explode anywhere in the middle east within the next 5 years. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-29; known on 2017-01-29.

• There will be at least one human being alive on earth even after the end of the year 2012 ( 100% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by vinayak on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: Bacon’s diary will turn out to be just a diary. ( 53% confidence; 9 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by Grognor on 2012-02-01; known on 2013-01-16.

• France’s Sarkozy to run for presidency. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Morendil on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Morendil on 2012-02-15.

• “There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 21 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

• No 3rd party candidate gains 5% of the popular vote for president. (90%) —knb ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-11-04.

• “Reduce term of copyrights to a maximum of 56 years” petition will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by ahartell on 2012-02-20.

• The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31.

• In 10 years, mainland China’s TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2021-12-28.

• Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-29; known on 2025-12-29.

• The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023 ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-12-27; known on 2023-01-01.

• I got a perfect score on my Physics 131L exam. ( 20% confidence )

  Created by endoself on 2011-12-27; known on 2012-01-03.

• I will reach 1000 karma on LW (http://lesswrong.com/user/RobertLumley) by June 2nd, the anniversary of my first post on LW. ( 68% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08; known in 14 days; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.

• The Bitcoin price will hit 5 $/฿ in December 2011. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Mqrius on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Mqrius on 2012-01-01.

• Within 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html) ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Morendil on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20.

• Newt Gingrich will win the 2012 GOP nomination. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by selylidne on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-08-31.

• “Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30.

• Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 89% confidence; 21 wagers )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07.

• Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States. He will win the Republican nomination and win the general election in 2012. ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by capcuervo on 2011-11-26; known on 2012-11-07.

• “Michele Bachmann to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30.

• Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 ( 75% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by faws on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01.

• SOPA will pass through congress, and then it will not be vetoed. ( 50% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Grognor on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-10-16.