PredictionBook: Predictions by eurg

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	47%	48%	74%	72%	83%	100%
Sample Size	19	27	23	18	66	6	159

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Predictions by eurg

HP MoR: The constant glitch in the Marauder’s Map is Quirrel appearing under another name (eg. ‘Tom Riddle’) ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-11; known on 2015-01-01.
HP MoR: The constant glitch in the Marauder’s Map is the spirit of Voldemort or Riddle ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-11; known on 2015-01-01.
HP MoR: The intermittent glitch in the Marauder’s Map is people appearing in multiple places simultaneously due to use of Time Turners. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by tadrinth on 2012-04-12; known on 2014-04-12.
HP MoR: MoR will win a Hugo for Best Novel 2013-2017 ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-13; known on 2017-09-05.
iphone 5 won’t have significantly different form factor than iphone 4S ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2013-01-01.
HP MoR: Severus Snape is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ami on 2012-04-18; known on 2014-01-01.
HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 81% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-18; known on 2015-01-01.
Eliezer Yudkowsky retracts or significantly edits one of the posts in the quantum physics sequence in the next two years. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by papermachine 16 days ago; known on 2014-05-03.
Planetary Resources won’t be mining asteroids by 2020 ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker 24 days ago; known on 2020-01-01.
Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern 18 days ago; known on 2022-05-01.
HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be threaten to destroy Azkaban ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be invoke the Imperius-debts of other Wizengamot members ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be ask for a trial by combat ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be have Quirrel make Bella confess to the crime ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be reveal the truth about Bellatrix’s escape ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be make Dumbledore turn himself in to Lucius in exchange for Hermione’s freedom ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will involve destroying one of the Dementors ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be using the Time-turner to smuggle Hermione out under the Cloak ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be accept Hermione’s imprisonment but order the Dementors to leave her alone ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be invoking Lucius’s debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser ( 35% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be nothing (failure) ( 6% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
HP MoR: Nobody in the LW discussion thread will predict Harry’s actual attempted solution (regardless of whether it fails). ( 26% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
HP MoR: ch81: Harry’s solution will be using the Time-turner to affect Lucius in some way ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
HP MoR: ch 81: Harry’s solution will be to set his hair on fire and run around in circles, screaming. ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.
No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.
Larry King’s brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-12-04; known on 2070-01-01.
The oldest living person on 2020-01-01 will be at least 130 years old. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2020-01-01.
A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. ( 24% confidence; 15 wagers; 18 comments )

Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-23; known on 2021-01-01.
The US$ will touch parity with the Euro (1€=1US$) before the end of 2012 ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by herb on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-12-31.
The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.
A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.
MoR: ch 78 will mention Amanda Knox ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-20.
Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 19% confidence; 23 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-11-05.
United States Facebook user base will fall under 100,000,000 users by December 31, 2013. ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Joe Craig on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-12-16.
“Silvio Berlusconi to announce his resignation before midnight ET 30 Nov 2011” —Intrade ( 67% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12.
On 31 Dec 2011, there will be no generally available consumer-level PC, as delivered from the factory, that has a clock speed of more than 5 GHz. ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2011-01-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.
Vettel to win f1 championship ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Laurablack on 2011-09-26; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-30.
The ISS will continue to have crew continuously through the end of November ( 84% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-30; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-01.
Greece Will be Bankrupt within 6 months from today ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by niekjetten on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-01.
Initial shipments (0-30 days after launch day) of iPhone 5 will not have a model with over 512 MB RAM ( 54% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-03-21; known on 2012-07-30.
US Supercommittee to publish >=$1.5t deficit reduction by midnight 23 November 2011 ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-19; known on 2011-11-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.
LW: Goetz’s mugging post will be <= -7 in 1 month. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-04.
A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 94% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Morendil on 2011-11-03.
Harold Camping: “the whole world…will be annihilated together with the whole physical world” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-10-22.
“the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.
‘I predict…a major earthquake, magnitude seven or more will happen within twenty kilometers of a line from nagano city, nagano to matsudo, chiba’ ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.
Sweden will qualify for Euro 2012 as best runner up ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-08; known on 2011-10-12; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-11.
There will be no noticeable disruption of financial services offered by the New York Stock Exchange on October 10th. ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Gedusa on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11.
“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10.
Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 47% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
HP MoR: Eliezer will publish ch78 before 7PM PST 13 September 2011 ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2011-09-13; judged wrong by fergus on 2011-09-13.
A professional athlete will not voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2041-01-01.
A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10.
China will land a man on Mars by 2050. ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 83% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by bobpage on 2011-10-02.
“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
GJP: Kim Jong-Il or his designated successor to be in charge of North Korea as of December 31, 2012 ( 87% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-12-31.
The current criteria for awarding the “Poseidon award” offered by the seastead insitute, will be met by someone by 2015. ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Konkvistador on 2011-08-30; known on 2016-01-01.
the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. —S. Jay Olshansky ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-29; known on 2100-01-01.
Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 —Dick Lipton ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2021-01-01.
P!=NP, and proven by 2040 —Ken ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2041-01-01.
P=NP, and proven by 12 December 2012 —Dick Lipton ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-12-12.
“Polygamy is granted legal status in the US.” ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01.
EU to dissolve by 2040. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2040-01-01.
Mubarak will cease to be Egypt’s President by 2012. ( 71% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-11.
‘Kim Jong Il steps down or dies this year’ —scav ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-19.
A Nobel prize in Physics will be awarded for unifying general relativity with quantum theory, with experimental evidence to back it up, and it won’t be a string theory. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by scav on 2011-01-11; known on 2020-10-31.
‘Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%’ —taw ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2021-01-01.
‘America’s credit rating will be taken down a notch’ in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-07.
By December 2011 at least one of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy will leave the Euro —Capitol Commentary ( 19% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2011-12-01.
‘Iran will test a nuclear weapon.’ in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-01.
Professional sports still banning many performance-enhancing drugs. —Mike Lee ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
Wikileaks will release the AES key to their insurance file in 2011 ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-03.
Wikileaks will release files from a major American bank in 2011 ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-01.
Oil prices at >=$120 by Jan 2012 ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.
Apple will release an iPad with a built-in camera in 2011. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by bobpage on 2011-06-11.
Apple will release the iPhone 5 and it will be available in white in 2011. ( 51% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.
Obama’s approval rating will be lower 1 Jan 2012 than 1 Jan 2011. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-10.
Wikileaks will continue to exist as an organization through 2011. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
‘We will eradicate malaria, I believe, to the point where there are no human cases reported globally in 2035’ —Tachi Yamada ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2036-01-01.
AIDS vaccine by 2035 —Tachi Yamada ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
‘By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.’ —David Eagleman ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
Facebook will be less visitors in 2011 ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Laus_CB on 2011-01-04; known on 2011-11-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-01.
Ecuador to be paid 3.6bn USD to not develop its oil reserves & preserve its rainforest. ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2014-01-01.
CEO Steve Ballmer will not leave Microsoft’s CEOship in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
Yahoo will spin off/sell Flickr in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
‘1.8-inch and 3.5-inch [hard] disk drives will die’ and 2.5 inch drives thrive in 2011 —Robert X. Cringely ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-02.
The US Federal Reserve is not audited by the US government in 2011. —Kevin ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
‘General AI will not be made in 2011.’ —JoshuaZ ( 97% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
‘Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities’ —JoshuaZ ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
The price of gold will fall in real terms. —Costanza ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-10.
The price of U.S. housing will fall in real terms. —Costanza ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01.
‘The rate of inflation of U.S. dollars will rise.’ —Costanza ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-10.
‘75% probability of [eyewear computing] being mainstream, or at least not unusual, by 2020.’ —orangecat ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2020-01-01.
‘There will be a second season of High School of the Dead’ —Sketerpot ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
‘SpaceX will successfully complete orbit-matching and docking with the International Space Station’ —Sketerpot ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
Conditional on success in the ISS docking, the first two SpaceX resupply missions will succeed —Sketerpot ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-06-30.
‘In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Restricts cryonics activity.’ —icebrand ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
‘In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Protects cryonics patients.’ —icebrand ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-01-01.
“The Obama administration will propose a Federal consumption tax, such as a VAT. “I don’t think it will be very soon, but it will be within eight years’ time.”" —Tyler Cowen ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2017-04-18.
‘Existing currencies are abolished. The “mega-watt-hour” becomes the universal unit of exchange.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2017-01-01.
HVD have replaced Blu-Ray by 2017 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2017-01-01.
“By 2015 the majority of people who make predictions on this site will have had their genomes sequenced.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01.
‘Terabyte SD cards will be available’ in 2014 ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01.
Apple will surpass Microsoft in revenue in a max. of 5 years. ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by crlosg2 on 2009-05-31; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by RandomThinker 14 days ago.
“Regarding access to the Internet: “Here’s a prediction: in five years, a UN convention will enshrine network access as a human right.”" —Cory Doctorow ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2014-05-31.
“In five years, oil will be uncompetitive with biofuel, even at $50 per barrel, though oil will take longer to decline in price.” —Vinod Khosla ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2014-04-04.
USA will be out of the Middle East by the end of 2012 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-12-31.
Barack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion) ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-11-06.
“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2012-12-31.
“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
“…a consensus emerged that there is a better than 50 percent chance that Israel will launch a strike by next July.” —Jeffrey Goldberg ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2011-07-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-31.
Inflation in US will be higher that 7% by 2012 ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by borisbrev on 2009-11-04; known on 2012-12-16.
Civil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011. ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-03.
“Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be the warmest on record” —Intrade ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.
Australia will not have car factories by the end of the current recession. —Clive Matthew-Wilson ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2012-01-01.
“There will be no significant newspapers printed on newsprint in the US by 2012.” (By significant, he seems to mean major market with a traditionally wide circulation.) —Seth Godin ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
At least one current member will drop out of the Euro. ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by faws on 2011-12-17.
“Dell’s cheapest computer costs $379 (with a monitor) … in another five years, computers will be one-fourth their current price.” —Jakob Nielsen ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-11-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-20.
In about a year this website will have more then 20 active participants per week. ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-02.
There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 37% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.
The NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2012-03-22; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.
“Construction of ‘Ground Zero mosque’ to commence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-01.
“Construction of ‘Ground Zero mosque’ to commence before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011” —Intrade ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2011-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.
“In two years, unemployment in Sweden will have risen to 12 percent.” —Anders Borg ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-04-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-02.
The model predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it. —Nate Silver ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-31.
The Irish Central Bank has forecast that the Irish economy will contract by almost 7% this year. It predicts that the downturn in activity is set to continue next year with a further contraction of 3%. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-01.
“This recession is going to last a lot longer than the one in the 1970s. I don’t see any major bull move in commodities in the next several years.” —Bill Gary ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2013-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-03-31.
“The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005.” ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-01-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-05.
“By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany.” ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-01-01.
“Immortal mice by 2015” ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01.
“Music CDs compatible with current (2002) CD players will still be sold regularly in 2015.” ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01.
“the entire north polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years.” —Al Gore ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2014-04-01.
Memristor products will be commercially available in 2013. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-05; known on 2014-01-01.
Weed will not be legalized in California for the next 5 years ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aurasprw on 2009-10-17; known on 2014-01-01; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.
“Brain-computer interfaces allowing the paralysed to walk again” ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2013-01-01.
‘the MacBook Air in the future (18-24 months) will switch to ARM once the >2GHz ARM processors start shipping en masse’ —pkaler ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-22; known on 2012-10-21.
Before 2012 Apple will (start to) phase out the CD/DVD drives from all it’s MacBooks. ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-02.
The Pirate Party will enter the Parliament of Berlin (Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus) in the 2011 election. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by faws on 2011-09-23.
“California state government will dissolve in default.” ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
“Microsoft will no longer have the majority market share in 24 months” —Beth Lynn Eicher ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2011-07-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-07.
“BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.
“BP to announce before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-06-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.
“There is no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant [> 3%] market share.” —Steve Ballmer ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2011-03-31; judged wrong by eurg on 2010-12-12.
“By 2011 a mother will have the entire genome sequence of her unborn child from her own blood.” —Jonathan M. Rothberg ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.
“BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
Iran will not produce a nuclear bomb before the end of 2010. —Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. —Ray Kurzweil ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.
Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.
Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.
Wireless electricity is ubiquitous in 2026 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
The United States of Africa is established by 2026 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2050-01-01.
’China’s economy continues to boom’ in 2025 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.
‘Vertical farms are appearing in many cities’ by 2025 ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged unknown by bobpage on 2011-10-09.
‘2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2046-01-01.
‘2050 Bored in this era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search of adventure.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2051-01-01.
‘2040 The “Universal Replicator,” based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created – given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.’ —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
Apple will release their desktop OS as software only before 2015 ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2015-12-31.
Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2022-12-31.
The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 72% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01.
The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PatrickAchtelik on 2010-11-24; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2010-12-12.
“Everything goes very multi-core, even your cell phone.” by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01.
‘I think it is probable that we could get a connectome of the human brain within 4 to 7 years.’ —Mike ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2017-01-06.
By 2014, Iran will have detonated a nuclear bomb. ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2014-01-01.
“Android-descended smartphones outnumber iPhone-descended smartphones” —dfranke ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-09.
“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2013-12-31.
An alternative to using seat belts (i.e., seatbelt-less seats) will be invented for air travel by 2013. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-30; known on 2013-12-16.
A stem cell cure for baldness will be commercially/medically available ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2013-01-01.
The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged unknown by Houshalter on 2010-06-26.
Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )

Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
Cannabis will be legalised within Australia by 2012 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
Julian Assange will not be convicted in Sweden of charges related to August 2010 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-01-04.
by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts. —Gerald Celente ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
“For all practical purposes, the Mexican state won’t survive to see 2012.” —Jeff Vail ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
“About 18 months from now, 80 percent of newspapers will be gone.” —Michael Wolff ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-01.
There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 7% confidence; 30 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged unknown by ledflyd on 2009-11-16.
PredictionBook will not be meaningfully integrated into LessWrong.com before 2011. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.