Predictions by faws

Predictions by faws

• Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by TheScholar 10 months ago; known in over 999 years.

• this will be the most popular prediction EVER ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Glenn over 2 years ago; known in over 998 years; judged unknown by Matt about 1 year ago.

• Generic molecular assemblers won’t be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don’t come from bulk chemistry. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by bogdanb 10 months ago; known in over 19 years.

• Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jennifer 10 months ago; known in over 14 years.

• Apple will surpass Microsoft in revenue in a max. of 5 years. ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by crlosg2 about 1 year ago; known in over 3 years; judged unknown by TheScholar 10 months ago.

• Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )

  Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known in over 2 years; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.

• Sarah Palin is mounting a 2012 presidential campaign ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by TwitterPredicts about 1 year ago; known in 10 months; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.

• There will be a transport (train, air, boat etc) accident killing more than 1000 people before 14 october 2010. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Arenamontanus 10 months ago; known in about 1 month.

• Germany will be governed by a CDU + FDP coalition during april, may, and june of 2010. ( 90% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Drahflow 10 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged right by JFE 2 months ago.

• Neither USA nor Israel will execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before 30 Jun 2010 ( 80% confidence; 9 wagers )

  Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged right by rwallace 2 months ago.

• Labour party will not win next UK General Election ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known 8 months ago; judged right by gwern about 1 month ago.

• The world will end in 2012 ( 21% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by jes5199 10 months ago; known in over 2 years; judged unknown by Martin Chase 9 months ago.

• The Pirate Party will enter the Parliament of Berlin (Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus) in the 2011 election. ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by ChristianKl 10 months ago; known in about 1 year.

• Roman Polanski will be extradited to the United States before the end of next year. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known in 3 months; judged unknown by anonym 10 months ago.

• Osama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers )

  Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged right by gwern about 1 month ago.

• The President of the Czech Republic will sign the Lisbon Treaty before the end of June, 2010. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by InTrade 10 months ago; known 2 months ago; judged right by Cyan 9 months ago.

• There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in over 5 years; judged unknown by Jack 10 months ago.

• Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by TheScholar 10 months ago; known in over 19 years; judged unknown by Jack 9 months ago.

• A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by rwallace 10 months ago; known in over 29 years; judged unknown by freyley 10 months ago.

• There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 8% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by anonym 10 months ago; known in over 5 years; judged unknown by ledflyd 9 months ago.

• General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 100% confidence; 25 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by bogdanb 10 months ago; known in about 1 month; judged unknown by Morendil 9 months ago.

• This site will have a feature to hide other people’s prediction results until after one has voted. This will be implemented at most within two weeks. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by kess3r 10 months ago; known 10 months ago; judged wrong by anonym 9 months ago.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 72% confidence; 37 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by MBlume 10 months ago; known in about 1 year; judged unknown by bogdanb 9 months ago.