Predictions by faws

• HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2013-01-01.

• Chrome will be ahead of Internet Explorer (all versions) in the StatCounter daily Global Stats for next Sunday. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by faws on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-03-05; judged wrong by faws on 2012-03-05.

• There will be at least one human being alive on earth even after the end of the year 2012 ( 100% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by vinayak on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-01-01.

• HP MoR: “A new chapter of HP:MoR, which would be more than two pages in length, will be posted” —Bugmaster ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-15.

• 2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in autonomous units with populations between 10 million and 1 billion. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-02; known on 2050-01-01.

• 2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in sovereign nation-states. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01.

• The first functional, 3D printed television/monitor screen will be demonstrated by 2020. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-30; known on 2020-01-01.

• By 2050, body modification enthusiasts will have printed custom body augmentations through 3D printing technology. ( 89% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-31; known on 2050-01-01.

• By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-31; known on 2025-01-01.

• France’s Sarkozy to run for presidency. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Morendil on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Morendil on 2012-02-15.

• HP MoR: Dumbledore deliberately arranged for Voldemort to learn of the prophecy about his defeat. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-29; known on 2016-01-01.

• “There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 21 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.

• 2012 is not end of this world! ( 99% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by zntneo on 2011-05-04.

• Nicolas Sarkozy to be elected President of France in 2012 —Intrade ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by gwern 13 days ago.

• I will ask out the person I currently have a crush on. They will say no. ( 65% confidence; 11 wagers; 15 comments )

  Created by Leo on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by Leo on 2012-01-30.

• GJP: #1060 Will Christian Wulff resign or vacate the office of President of Germany before 1 April 2012? ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by faws on 2012-02-18.

• “Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 South Carolina Primary” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-01-28; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-22.

• The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31.

• The US will be at war with Iran by 2014 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Isaac on 2011-12-01; known on 2014-01-01.

• This prediction will be deleted within 5 days. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-14; known on 2012-01-19.

• The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

• The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

• The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 79% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

• I will drop out of college. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2014-03-31.

• The future of the Euro: “Euro survives”. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16.

• Iran will not be invaded or attacked this year ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by modulus on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01.

• USD worth over 3 EUR ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21.

• Tomorrow morning, I will have negative karma on LessWrong. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-09.

• The future of the Euro: Germany / Netherlands abandon Euro and form new currency / currencies. Remaining currencies also abandon the Euro and relaunch national currencies. ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16.

• The future of the Euro: Germany / Netherlands abandon Euro and form new currency / currencies. Remaining countries retain the Euro as a currency of the smaller Euro zone, without Germany. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16.

• Gold will be $2000 by Jan 2012 ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by eduffy on 2011-11-03; known on 2012-01-16; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-16.

• Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.

• euro and us dollar will form a new currency within 10 years (both will be supplanted by a common currency shared by the USA and some current Euro members) ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by siscoking on 2012-01-04; known on 2022-01-16.

• General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01.

• Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 16% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-12-08; known on 2019-12-08.

• HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.

• No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.

• Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07.

• Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson; Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party; Obama elected ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07.

• I will be murdered during my stay in Mexico City. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.

• “There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2012-01-06.

• ‘By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.’ —Kevin ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2021-01-01.

• The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 100% confidence; 41 wagers; 20 comments )

  Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-11-06.

• “No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

• HP MoR: ‘I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100’ —shminux ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2014-01-01.

• HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black ( 17% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-09-04.

• The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023 ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-12-27; known on 2023-01-01.

• “Hamas accepts Israel’s right to exist before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “[Hillary] Clinton will be Obama’s running mate” ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-12-10; known on 2012-09-03.

• Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 ( 75% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by faws on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01.

• Conditional on not buying RIM, Microsoft will license Android. —Cringely ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01.

• Microsoft will buy RIM —Cringely ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01.

• Mitt Romney will win the 2012 GOP nomination. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by selylidne on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-08-31.

• Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 89% confidence; 21 wagers )

  Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07.

• Ron Paul will win the Iowa Caucus. ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-04.

• lukeprog will make >2 predictions on PB during 2012. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2013-01-01.

• North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. —Scott Sumner ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-03; known on 2061-01-01.

• Chrome will be the most widely used browser during July 2012 according to StatCounter. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by faws on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-08-05.

• “At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.” ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2150-01-01.

• “By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01.

• The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-01-01.

• The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.

• The oldest living person on 2020-01-01 will be at least 130 years old. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2020-01-01.

• 1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers; 13 comments )

  Created by amcknight on 2011-11-11; known on 2036-01-01.

• Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.

• “I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 13% confidence; 15 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08.

• Vettel to win f1 championship ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Laurablack on 2011-09-26; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-30.

• Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2023-01-01.

• No euthanasia coaster will be built in the next 30 years. (See http://news.discovery.com/tech/euthanasia-sucicide-rollercoaster-ride-110919.html ) ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2041-09-21.

• AOL & Yahoo to merge by 2013. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01.

• Greece will leave the European Union by 2012 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-13; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.

• Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-09-12; known on 2022-01-01.

• “Hamas accepts Israel’s right to exist before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.

• Gaddafi will be killed or captured ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Dylan on 2011-09-08; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by Dylan on 2011-09-30.

• GJP: Kim Jong-Il or his designated successor to be in charge of North Korea as of December 31, 2012 ( 87% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-12-31.

• No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 83% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by bobpage on 2011-10-02.

• Israel and Egypt at war by 2022 ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-16; known on 2022-01-01.

• Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 6% confidence; 17 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Noetic Jun on 2011-10-10.

• By 2020, one of Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, George W. Bush, Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton, Richard Myers, or Peter Pace will state he had advanced knowledge of the 9/11 attacks or helped plan those attacks. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01.

• By 2020, a former US government official will come forward to say that they were involved in planning the 9/11 attacks. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01.

• ‘Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year’ ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged unknown by Swimmy on 2011-10-19.

• Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 47% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.

• Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 3009-10-17.

• this will be the most popular prediction EVER ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Glenn on 2008-08-02; known on 3008-08-02; judged wrong by Grognor 2 days ago.

• Generic molecular assemblers won’t be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don’t come from bulk chemistry. ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2029-10-14.

• Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Jennifer on 2009-10-19; known on 2025-01-12.

• Apple will surpass Microsoft in revenue in a max. of 5 years. ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by crlosg2 on 2009-05-31; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by RandomThinker 14 days ago.

• Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

• Sarah Palin is mounting a 2012 presidential campaign ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-13.

• There will be a transport (train, air, boat etc) accident killing more than 1000 people before 14 october 2010. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-14.

• Germany will be governed by a CDU + FDP coalition during april, may, and june of 2010. ( 90% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Drahflow on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by JFE on 2010-07-02.

• Neither USA nor Israel will execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before 30 Jun 2010 ( 80% confidence; 9 wagers )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-06-30; judged right by rwallace on 2010-06-30.

• Labour party will not win next UK General Election ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• The world will end in 2012 ( 18% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by Martin Chase on 2009-11-17.

• The Pirate Party will enter the Parliament of Berlin (Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus) in the 2011 election. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by faws on 2011-09-23.

• Roman Polanski will be extradited to the United States before the end of next year. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.

• Osama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• The President of the Czech Republic will sign the Lisbon Treaty before the end of June, 2010. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )

  Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by Cyan on 2009-11-10.

• There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2011-11-02.

• Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 14% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.

• A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.

• There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 7% confidence; 30 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged unknown by ledflyd on 2009-11-16.

• General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 100% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.

• This site will have a feature to hide other people’s prediction results until after one has voted. This will be implemented at most within two weeks. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by kess3r on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-28; judged wrong by anonym on 2009-12-03.

• Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 69% confidence; 70 wagers; 16 comments )

  Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-10-06; judged unknown by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.