Predictions by fergus

• HP MoR: ‘I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100’ —shminux ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2014-01-01.

• Q.I. makes it up to “Z”. ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2028-12-31.

• The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 100% confidence; 41 wagers; 20 comments )

  Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-11-06.

• In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known on 2021-12-24.

• The Bitcoin price will hit 5 $/฿ in December 2011. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Mqrius on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Mqrius on 2012-01-01.

• gwern.net referral traffic will average <1000 daily visits in the week a year from now. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-17; known on 2012-12-17.

• gwern.net total traffic will average <2000 daily visits in the week a year from now. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-17; known on 2012-12-17.

• Logos01 will commit suicide in 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-12-05; known on 2016-12-05.

• The Bitcoin price will hit 4 $/฿ in December 2011. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by Mqrius on 2011-12-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Mqrius on 2011-12-20.

• I will reach 1000 karma on LW (http://lesswrong.com/user/RobertLumley) by June 2nd, the anniversary of my first post on LW. ( 68% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08; known in 14 days; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.

• A law that creates some form of Internet blacklist which requires search engines or ISPs to block specific sites will be passed in the USA before 2014 ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by saturn on 2011-12-13; known on 2014-01-02; judged unknown by gwern on 2011-12-17.

• LW: average IQ in survey will be at or above the 98th percentile and thus eligible for Mensa membership. ( 67% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-11-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.

• CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein’s general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )

  Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-09.

• Before 2013, a new version of NetHack (with version number > 3.4.3) will be available on nethack.org ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-10-09; known on 2013-01-01.

• Consensus will be that Koomey’s Law no longer applies in 25 years. ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-10; known on 2036-10-10.

• “S&P will announce before 1 July 2013 a downgrade of its France sovereign rating.” ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-07-01.

• By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 11 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2025-01-01.

• By 2026 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2026-01-01.

• I will abstain from sexual activity (porn, masturbation, orgasm) until January 31st, 2012. ( 45% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-01-31.

• Konkvistador has obstructive sleep apnea ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-10-21; known on 2013-10-21.

• No human fatalities will result from the ROSAT reentry. ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.

• At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other. ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-10-19; known on 2100-01-01.

• Harold Camping: “the whole world…will be annihilated together with the whole physical world” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-10-22.

• ‘A pill to prevent sunburn’ is available either over-the-counter or by prescription ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2016-01-01.

• ‘China launches an unmanned sample return mission to the Moon’ ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01.

• ‘Cosmetic surgery has doubled its market size’ (in 2017 compared to 2010) ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01.

• The appearance of complex numbers in quantum mechanics has something to do with information propagating backwards through time regarding constraints on which possible world(s) may obtain. This is related to getting bits of Chaitin’s omega by observing app ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-24; known on 2031-09-24.

• The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite will strike a person, residence, or vehicle, where the impact results in at least one human death (that we know about) before 2011-10-25 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-09-24; known on 2011-10-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-26.

• ‘Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year’ ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged unknown by Swimmy on 2011-10-19.

• Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 47% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.

• Michael House will reply within a week. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-09-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-29.

• No euthanasia coaster will be built in the next 30 years. (See http://news.discovery.com/tech/euthanasia-sucicide-rollercoaster-ride-110919.html ) ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2041-09-21.

• By 2020, a former US government official will come forward to say that they were involved in planning the 9/11 attacks. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01.

• By 2020, one of Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, George W. Bush, Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton, Richard Myers, or Peter Pace will state he had advanced knowledge of the 9/11 attacks or helped plan those attacks. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01.

• Southern Baptist Convention will not rename themselves in the next two years. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2013-09-20.

• “The first person to do a special [specific] drawing for this thing will get fired” LBJ LBJ will be the first person to do a specific drawing for this purpose. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-09-21; known on 2012-09-21.

• In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted). ( 48% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-09-20; known on 2021-09-16.

• The Doctor (from Doctor Who) will exceed the usual regeneration limit via genetic looms, like the Other is rumored to have done. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by papermachine on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-10-16; judged unknown by papermachine on 2011-11-02.

• It is possible to influence the recoherence speed of a quantum superposition from inside that superposition. ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-09-19.

• I will fall asleep before 6 am on all days within the next 7 days. ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-09-17; known on 2011-09-24; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-09-20.

• I will judge all current predictions and make new predictions in 7 days. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-09-17; known on 2011-09-24; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-09-25.

• I will have done a total of 49 or more problems on ChessTempo.com in the next 7 days. ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-09-17; known on 2011-09-24; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-09-25.

• I will have added 20 cards to my Anki deck in 7 days. (Currently at 10). ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-09-17; known on 2011-09-24; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-09-25.

• I will write in my journal 7 times in the next 7 days. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-09-17; known on 2011-09-24; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-09-20.

• I will have finished “Hitch 22” in 7 days. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-09-17; known on 2011-09-24; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-09-25.

• I will have rewritten TextLaundry.com in Django within the next week ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-09-17; known on 2011-09-24; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-09-20.

• I will go to the gym 3 times in the next week. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-09-17; known on 2011-09-24; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-09-20.

• I will have written a conceptual-learning exercise for the Khan Academy in the next 7 days. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

  Created by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-09-17; known on 2011-09-24; judged wrong by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-09-25.

• I will be put on moderation/expelled from the Miyazaki mailing list for providing a public archive ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-01.

• “Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.

• “Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011” ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-30.

• Iphone 5 shape is same as Iphone 4, the onlything different is the antenna will change a bit! ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-02; known on 2012-03-16.

• I will be a USCF Master before I turn 23. ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-13; known on 2014-11-15.

• GJP: Kim Jong-Il or his designated successor to be in charge of North Korea as of December 31, 2012 ( 87% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-12-31.

• GJP: the Saudi monarchy continue to rule Saudi Arabia as of March 1, 2012 ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-03-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-03-01.

• Gaddafi will be killed or captured ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by Dylan on 2011-09-08; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by Dylan on 2011-09-30.

• Steve R. and I will have produced at least one dubstep song within the next six months. ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2012-03-14.

• Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2021-09-14.

• I will have recorded at least one acoustic guitar song within the next week. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers )

  Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2011-09-21; judged right by Will Newsome on 2011-09-17.

• Bill Murray will die in Ghostbusters 3 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-12-30.

• I will find and contact the real recipient of a Fedex package that was incorrectly delivered to my address ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-09-10; known on 2011-09-11; judged wrong by bobpage on 2011-09-11.

• There will be a major terrorist attack (>= 60 deaths) between 2011-09-10 20:00 UTC and 2011-09-12 06:00 UTC anywhere in the world except Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Iraq. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-09-10; known on 2011-09-12; judged wrong by bobpage on 2011-09-12.

• “Julia Gillard to no longer be Prime Minister of Australia before midnight ET 30 Sep 2011” (excluding death) —Intrade ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-05; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.

• HP MoR: Eliezer will publish ch78 before 7PM PST 13 September 2011 ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2011-09-13; judged wrong by fergus on 2011-09-13.

• I will fix the bug that caused the broken HTML in http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2856 today ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-09-09; known on 2011-09-10; judged right by bobpage on 2011-09-10.

• gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC) ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.

• By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2035-01-01.

• By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2031-01-01.

• No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 83% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by bobpage on 2011-10-02.

• The Richard Dawkins article on Conservapedia will in one year have in its stable form a picture of at least one of Hitler, Stalin, or Lenin ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04.

• I will be raided or searched over my Silk Road article. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-07-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.

• “Dell’s cheapest computer costs $379 (with a monitor) … in another five years, computers will be one-fourth their current price.” —Jakob Nielsen ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-11-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-20.

• Appeals court in Perugia will not increase the sentences of Knox and Sollecito. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by komponisto on 2010-09-29; known on 2011-11-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-03.

• “the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.

• “Hamas accepts Israel’s right to exist before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.

• I will not consider any of the next four chapters of HPMR to be as good as chapter 74. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 13 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-03-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-03-12.

• “Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star” will get an average critic’s rating of between 20-30% on rottentomatoes.com ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-09-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-18.

• The Wikipedia user Bread Ninja will have stopped editing more than weekly within a year. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-09-18; known on 2011-09-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-18.

• Wikileaks will release files from a major American bank in 2011 ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-01.

• ‘1000 dollars per Bitcoin by the end of the year.’ —Bruce Wagner ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-02-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged unknown by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-29.

• “Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 ( 21% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Porejide on 2011-08-25.

• In the next three months, there will be no thefts of bitcoins from bitcoin end-users resulting from a the end-user’s GNU/Linux system being compromised. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by tedks on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-09-18; judged right by tedks on 2011-09-18.

• The US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15 ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-15.

• We will be using a cloud based rendering solution for animations in under 2 months ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers )

  Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-09-02; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-09-02.

• The judge will rule that Julian Assange be extradited to Sweden after hearings in July. ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-07; known on 2011-10-01; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-02.

• Deus Ex 3’s North America release will be pushed back past August 23, 2011 (release for one platform counts as release) ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-03-18; known on 2011-08-24; judged wrong by bobpage on 2011-08-23.

• Wikileaks will release the AES key to their insurance file in 2011 ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by bobpage on 2012-01-03.

• ‘Multiple Wikileaks alternatives will pop up, and pundits will start to realize that mass leaks are enabled by technology trends, not just by one freaky Australian dude.’ —FtT ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-14.

• ‘In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Protects cryonics patients.’ —icebrand ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-01-01.

• ‘In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Restricts cryonics activity.’ —icebrand ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• ‘General AI will not be made in 2011.’ —JoshuaZ ( 97% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• The US Federal Reserve is not audited by the US government in 2011. —Kevin ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “I will continue to post on LW at least once a month next year” —magfrump ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• 3D Televisions using a technology that doesn’t require expensive glasses to view in 3D will outsell those that do require such glasses by the end of 2011 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

  Created by scav on 2011-01-05; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

• In about a year this website will have more then 20 active participants per week. ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

  Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-02.

• There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 37% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

  Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.

• HPMOR will update again by October 20th ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-17; known on 2011-10-21; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-25.

• Australian dollar will strengthen to 112 US cents by the end of September ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

  Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-28; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-01.

• Roger Ver will not create a Longbets about his Bitcoin>gold/silver prediction within a month. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-08; known on 2011-09-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-21.

• “Bitcoins will outperform Gold, Silver by 100X over the next two years” —Roger Ver ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-04; known on 2013-08-04.

• Greece will default on its debt before 2011-09-01 00:00 UTC ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by bobpage on 2011-06-19; known on 2011-09-02; judged wrong by bobpage on 2011-09-02.

• A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 94% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

  Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Morendil on 2011-11-03.

• “Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

• “Magnitude 8.5 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

  Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.